This article is compiled from Office of the Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Army by Semiconductor Industry (ID: ICVIEWS)
Through a comprehensive comparison and analysis of nearly 700 technological trends, 20 technological development trends that deserve the most attention are finally identified.
This report is a 35-page "2016-2045 Emerging Technology Trends Report" published by the US Army. This is the third annual report on emerging trends in science and technology (S&T) from the Deputy Assistant Secretary for Army Research and Technology (DASAR&T).
It is formed on the basis of 32 research reports on technological trends published by government agencies, consulting agencies, think tanks, and scientific research institutions in the United States in the past few years. Through a comprehensive comparative analysis of nearly 700 technological trends, from this data set, 20 core technological trends that will affect the world in the next thirty years are identified.
The report has two main objectives. First, it was designed to inform leaders across the United States. Army and joint, interagency, and international community stakeholders on technology trends that may impact the future operating environment and shape Army capabilities. Second, identify major trends in science and technology that may affect Army capabilities and the future operating environment over the next 30 years.
Robotics and Automation Systems
Robots and automated systems are likely to become commonplace by 2045. Self-driving cars will make transportation safer and more efficient, while potentially fueling the rise of the sharing economy. Robots take care of the elderly, deliver groceries, harvest crops, maintain public infrastructure, and provide many other services involved in everyday life. Intelligent software agents, or "bots," will extract insights from terabytes of data, automate business processes, and move into customer service, teaching, and other roles traditionally seen as "human-centric." However, the rise of autonomous institutions could displace hundreds of millions of labor and service personnel, creating risks of economic instability and social unrest. Automated systems will also become an attractive target for adversaries and a new priority for cyber defense. As robotic systems gain mobility, flexibility, and intelligence, the use of robots in military operations will expand, making robots effective partners on the battlefield of the future. At the same time, adversaries will use robots and automated systems to challenge us morally and tactically.
3D printing
Additive manufacturing (3D printing) has been used in industry for over 30 years, primarily as a tool for prototyping in limited runs. Yet 3D printing technology has seen significant innovation over the past decade. The price of 3D printers is falling, and the availability of open-source tools and online marketplaces for 3D models has fostered the growth of a vibrant community of hobbyist "makers" who are pushing the boundaries of the technology. By 2040, 3D printers will be able to print objects containing multiple materials, electronics, batteries and other components. People will be able to print tools, electronics, replacement parts, medical equipment and other products, customized to their wants and needs. Military logistics could be streamlined as equipment and supplies would be printed directly at the point of use. Items will become information, and digital piracy will replace shoplifting. Terrorists and criminal organizations will print weapons, sensors and other equipment from raw materials that are nearly impossible to trace.
Big Data
In 2015, 4.4 zettabytes (4.4 trillion gigabytes) of data were generated globally, a figure that is expected to double approximately every two years. This trove of data provides insights into consumer behavior, public health, climate change, and a host of other economic, social, and political challenges.
However, while "big data" has become a buzzword, less than 10% of the data generated each year is analyzed. Over the next 30 years, our ability to make better use of large and dynamic datasets will improve. Automated robots will crawl unstructured data, identifying relationships visualized in immersive virtual data scenarios. Analytics will extend beyond the enterprise as people gain the ability to apply big data to their personal lives. Citizens will have the ability to use data to hold governments and other key institutions accountable, leading to tensions over data access. The rise of hyper-personalized marketing, government surveillance of citizen data tracking, and high-profile cases of data loss may exacerbate concerns about data ownership. Potential adversaries will use data that is stolen, purchased from the dark web, or freely accessible from open source to compromise security and challenge U.S. defenses.
human development
Over the next 30 years, technology will enable us to move beyond the biological limits of human potential. Wearable devices connected through the Internet of Things will overlay context-sensitive information directly onto our senses. Exoskeletons and brain interface prosthetics will make us stronger and restore mobility to the elderly and the infirm. Sensors and computers embedded in contact lenses and permanent implants allow us to hear whispers behind walls, give us natural night vision, and immerse us in virtual and augmented reality. Non-nutritive medicines will expand our cognitive capabilities and transform work and education. Of course, augmentation technology will come at a cost, and those who cannot afford to upgrade their "human chassis" may find themselves unable to compete in the augmentation economy. Cyber-enhancing technologies would also be an attractive target for hackers who want to control our minds and bodies. And America. Armies will benefit from expanded soldiers, forces will face equally expanded opponents, and an expanded arms race may evolve.
Mobile and Cloud Computing
Mobile computing and cloud computing are changing the way people interact with data. In the U.S., an estimated 30% of web browsing and 40% of social media use is currently done on mobile devices. By 2030, 75% of the world's population will have a mobile connection and 60% should have broadband access. Mobile devices are becoming more powerful and feature-rich, with more and more embedded sensors that measure weather, location, ambient light and sound, and biometrics. Cloud computing, combined with mobile data access, provides virtually unlimited computing power that can be scaled seamlessly without requiring massive investments in IT infrastructure. Over the next 30 years, cloud-based mobile computing has the potential to transform everything from healthcare to education.
Cell phones will monitor vital signs and communicate directly with diagnostic apps, people will use mobile devices' online education portals to learn new skills, and apps will allow farmers in developing countries to connect to real-time weather data and tools to optimize their harvests. At the same time, mobile computing and cloud computing will put enormous pressure on network security, reliability and bandwidth, and both consumers and businesses will have to become more comfortable with handing over data to the cloud.
medical progress
In the next 30 years, medicine will usher in many technological breakthroughs. Genomics will lead to personalized medicine, including tailored treatments for cancer, cardiovascular disease, Alzheimer's and other diseases. Artificial organs will be grown from DNA samples for transplantation, eliminating the waiting time and risk of organ rejection for life-saving transplants. The prosthetic will be connected directly to the nervous system and will incorporate bio-based sensors to provide a near-normal sense of touch. Robotic first responders and tissue preservation technologies, such as controlled cryotherapy, will revolutionize trauma care and greatly extend the "golden time" of wounded soldiers. As scientists unlock the key to unlocking aging, people will live longer, stay healthy and active into what we today think of as "old age." At the same time, the cost of advanced healthcare will strain health care systems in many countries and trigger growing inequalities in access to life-saving treatments. The coming healthcare revolution will also keep people healthy and productive for decades to come, widen competition for jobs between older and younger workers, and put additional strain on social safety nets. Drug-resistant bacteria will become an urgent problem in many parts of the world.
cyber security
Cybersecurity is not a new topic. In fact, as early as 1991, someone raised the warning of a "cyber Pearl Harbor". But in the next 30 years, with the development of the logistics network and more and more connections in daily life, cyber security will become the top topic of the network industry. The scope of cyberattacks is increasing, most targeting individual consumers or companies, and the damage caused by individual attacks, while widespread, is easily contained. As cars, appliances, power plants, street lights and millions of other objects become connected to the Internet, the likelihood of a truly devastating cyberattack will increase. Countries, businesses and individuals will be challenged to secure their data against stealthier attacks -- many of which may go undetected for years. The worst-case scenario envisions a form of "electronic apocalypse," in which the vast economic and social power of the Internet collapses under the weight of relentless cyber-attacks.
clean energy
Over the next 30 years, global energy demand is expected to grow by 35%. With the development of methods such as hydraulic fracturing and directional drilling, people have opened up a large number of new oil and natural gas reserves. These technologies have upended the global oil market and made the United States one of the world's largest producers of fossil fuels. At the same time, renewables such as solar and wind are approaching cost parity with fossil fuels. Over the past 20 years, the cost of electricity produced by solar cells has dropped from nearly $8 per watt of capacity to less than a tenth of that figure. Nuclear energy, while still the subject of intense public debate, continues to grow, with new reactor designs promising improved safety and less radioactive waste. While adopting cleaner energy sources will help fight global climate change, there will be new frictions in accessing rare materials used in batteries, solar cells and other key products of the energy revolution. The decline of fossil fuels also poses a significant risk of economic and social instability across the Middle East and North Africa, creating new security challenges for the United States and its allies.
Smart City
By 2045, 65-70% of the world's population - approximately 6.4 billion people - will live in cities. As urban populations increase, the number of megacities with 10 million or more residents will increase, from 28 in 2016 to 41 in 2030. Mass migration to cities will place significant pressure on urban transport systems, food and water supplies, power and energy infrastructure, sanitation and public safety. Information and communication (ICT) technologies will support the development of "smart cities", which use data and automation to make urban centers more efficient and sustainable. A distributed sensor system will monitor water and electricity usage and automatically balance distribution through the smart grid. Network traffic systems and options for autonomous vehicles will ease traffic congestion. New materials and design techniques will be used to create smart buildings that maximize the efficiency of heating, cooling and lighting. Rooftop solar panels, micro wind turbines, thermal and other renewable energy sources will provide clean, distributed generation. At the same time, cities that cannot afford to invest in these technologies (or lack the political will) risk becoming congested, squalid, dangerously unstable and flashpoints for conflict.
internet of things
It is conservatively estimated that by 2045, more than 100 billion devices will be connected to the Internet. This would include mobile and wearable devices, home appliances, medical devices, industrial sensors, security cameras, automobiles, clothing and other technologies. All of these devices will generate and share vast amounts of information that will revolutionize how we work and live. People will use the information generated through the Internet of Things (IoT) to make smarter decisions and gain a greater understanding of their lives and the world around them. At the same time, connected devices will automate many monitoring, management and repair tasks that currently require manual labor. The intersection of IoT, analytics, and artificial intelligence will create a global network of intelligent machines conducting a multitude of critical operations without human intervention. The Internet of Things will improve many aspects. It will also exacerbate concerns about cybersecurity and privacy in terms of economic efficiency, public safety, and personal productivity. Criminal organizations, terrorists, and hostile nation-states will use the Internet of Things as a new vector to attack the United States and its allies. The deluge of data generated through connected devices will also allow governments to conduct mass surveillance of populations, leading to ongoing tensions between digital freedom and security.
Food and Water Technology
Insufficient food and fresh water will become a crisis point in many parts of the world in the next 30 years. About 25% of the current cropland has been degraded by over-cultivation, drought and air/water pollution. According to optimistic forecasts, the price of staple food grains could rise by 30% in the next few decades - a 100% increase is unlikely if climate change, demand patterns and failures in resource management continue on current trajectories. By 2045, 3.9 billion people, more than 40% of the world's population, will face water stress. Technology offers many potential solutions to the food and water crises. Desalination, micro-irrigation, water recycling, rainwater harvesting and other technologies can ease the pressure on freshwater supplies. Genetically modified crops and automation can increase crop yields and allow farmers to produce more nutrients from less land. Food and water, long taken for granted in the developed world, will be the main focus of innovation and possibly the main flashpoint of conflict.
quantum computing
Quantum computing exploits properties of subatomic particles, such as superposition and entanglement, to encode and manipulate data. While this technology has been discussed for decades as a theoretical possibility, recently research labs across academia, industry and government are beginning to demonstrate quantum systems that may have practical applications in the next 5-15 years. Quantum computing could be a key technology that could revolutionize multiple other fields of technology, such as climate modelling, pharmaceutical research and materials science. However, the interest in quantum computing has to do with how it could change cryptography. Quantum computers can break all current encryption methods, and quantum cryptography could provide the first truly unbreakable encoding technique. Recent research has begun to overcome many of the technical issues that have limited the development of practical quantum computers. While real-world applications of quantum computing may not appear until the mid-2040s, the influx of massive government and industry investment suggests that quantum computing may be approaching a tipping point.
social empowerment
About 65 percent of U.S. adults currently use social media, up from 7 percent in 2005. Social media has undoubtedly changed the way people connect online, but over the next 30 years, social technology will be the engine of microculture that empowers individuals to shape their image. Many traditional power structures will be overturned as people form Internet-based communities, defined by technologically mediated social contracts. Governments will find it increasingly difficult to control political narratives as eyewitness accounts of corruption and oppression are shared directly without the filter of mass media. While businesses will learn new techniques for reaching consumers through social channels, those consumers will also use social platforms to reduce advertising noise and hold businesses accountable for their products and actions. Crowdsourcing and content streaming will further democratize content creation and blur the lines between media creators and consumers. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies could lead to definitions of money and trade based on social consensus rather than government control. For the United States. Military, social empowerment will fundamentally change how young people think about military service. For example, those who first define themselves as members of online communities may be less attracted to calls for patriotism and public service. Social media sharing will also make it more challenging for troops to win narrative battles in future conflicts.
advanced digital
Over the past 60 years, computers and other digital devices have transformed life so drastically that it's almost impossible to remember that these technologies are relatively new. The first personal computer wasn't sold until 1975, and only as a kit that customers had to assemble and program themselves. And yet, just 40 years later, 68 percent of Americans own smartphones with more processing power than when astronauts were put on the moon in 1969. 3 The next 30 years are likely to continue with increased computing power and wider availability of digital resources. Mobile computing and cloud computing will provide virtually unlimited memory and processing speed. Virtualization and software-defined systems will allow governments and businesses to quickly adapt IT infrastructure without costly and wasteful hardware upgrades. Digital products will be integrated into a wider range of everyday objects, from clothing to building materials. At the same time, technologies are emerging that will change the way we interact with our devices. Voice interfaces are already common in smartphones and will continue to improve. Gesture interfaces will allow us to communicate with computers through nonverbal actions. Ultimately, brain-computer interfaces will allow us to control devices with thought, making digital systems a natural extension of our bodies, as our own limbs. All of these developments will present new opportunities and challenges for the military. For example, embedded digital systems will connect Soldiers to each other and support sustainment, fire coordination and intelligence analysis. On the other hand, the proliferation of advanced computing power will increase the risk of serious cyber attacks.
mixed reality
Virtual reality and augmented reality (VR and AR) have generated a lot of enthusiasm in the consumer electronics industry. Facebook will this year launch a marketplace for VR headsets developed by OculusVR, a system it acquired in 2014. Other major electronics companies including Samsung, Sony and HTC are releasing virtual reality products this year, marking a major breakthrough for virtual reality as a mainstream entertainment technology. Apps are emerging outside of entertainment. For example, home improvement chain Lowes is developing a holographic room — a 3D augmented reality room that allows shoppers to design a living area and then walk into a virtual model of the space to get a better feel for how it will look. While the history of virtual reality and augmented reality has inflated expectations that media will change in the 1990s, ultra-high-resolution displays, low-cost location and positional tracking, and high-definition video content laid a solid foundation for the merger of "mixed reality" technologies. The real world and digital information. Over the next 30 years, these technologies should become more common. AR displays will provide real-time, context-aware data overlays, while VR will deeply enable immersive experiences integrating sight, sound, smell and touch. There are applications for the US Army, virtual reality and augmented reality ranging from training to combat operations.
climate change technology
Current data suggest that global surface temperatures will rise by 2.5 to 5.4 degrees Fahrenheit by 2050. Even with dramatic steps taken today to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, climate inertia ensures that some warming will be inevitable. As a result, sea levels could rise, threatening coastal cities; crop yields could drop, leading to famine in parts of developing countries; billions of dollars in damages to businesses, businesses and public infrastructure. Over the next 30 years, these risks will drive investment in technological solutions to mitigate the potential impacts of climate change. In the short term, climate change technologies will include flood hazard mapping systems and drought-resistant genetically modified crops. In the longer term, more ambitious technologies are likely to emerge, such as carbon sequestration methods that pull greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide and methane out of the atmosphere and store them safely underground. If climate change appears to follow a warming scenario of 4-5 degrees or more, there could be destabilizing effects on Earth's climate that are impossible to mitigate. In this case, a serious effort at geoengineering could be the only solution to avoiding catastrophic climate change. For example, scientists estimate that seeding the atmosphere with sulfur or alumina particles would reduce the amount of solar radiation hitting Earth. These interventions are still highly theoretical, and the risks could be very high.
advanced materials
Materials science has seen impressive advances in the past decade, such as smart materials that heal and clean themselves; memory metals that can return to their original shape; piezoelectric ceramics, which can be used to harvest energy from pressure; and Nanomaterials with remarkable structural and electrical properties. Nanomaterials hold great potential for a wide range of applications. At the nanoscale (less than 100 nanometers), common materials have unique properties. For example, graphene, a lattice of individual carbon atoms, is 100 times stronger than steel, conducts heat and electricity efficiently, and is nearly transparent. Nanomaterials have applications in ultra-smooth coatings for engines and other machines, strong composites for aircraft and cars, lightweight body armor and efficient photovoltaics. Beyond industrial applications, pharmaceutical companies are developing therapeutic nanoparticles that could one day deliver targeted drug treatments against cancer with greatly reduced side effects while improving treatment outcomes. Over the next 30 years, nanomaterials and other novel materials such as metal foams and ceramic composites will be found in clothing, building materials, vehicles, roads and bridges, and countless other items. The U.S. Army will be able to leverage advanced materials to produce lighter, stronger batteries and renewable energy systems.
new weapon
Over the next 30 years, many new weapons technologies are likely to proliferate on the battlefield of the future. In addition to technologies currently under development, such as nonlethal weapons and directed energy systems, several nations are investing in anti-access area denial (A2AD) technologies that could seriously impact the U.S. Army's ability to maneuver freely in future operating environments. Emerging A2AD technologies include anti-ship ballistic missiles; precision-guided anti-vehicle and anti-personnel munitions; counter-rocket, artillery, and mortar (CRAM) systems, anti-satellite weapons; and electromagnetic pulse (EMP) systems. Some of these technologies, such as precision-guided munitions, will reflect innovations based on existing technologies. For example, China is developing advanced anti-ship ballistic missiles that have the potential to destroy aircraft carriers. Other technologies will reflect entirely new concepts, such as the self-guiding bullet demonstrated by DARPA in 2015 as part of its Extremely Accurate Mission Ordnance (EXACTO) program. As China, Russia and others invest in military modernization. It is likely to face opponents who have the ability to come close to, and in some cases possibly surpass, our own.
space
The space industry has entered a period of innovation and progress not seen since the space race of the 1960s. New technologies such as robotics, advanced propulsion systems, lightweight materials, additive manufacturing, and miniaturization are all dramatically reducing the cost of sending people and materials into space and opening up new possibilities for space exploration. New entrants to the space market, including SpaceX, Arianespace and Blue Origin, are disrupting the stagnant commercial launch sector and driving innovations such as reusable launch vehicles. Over the next 30 years, research and development will enable humans to return to the Moon and could lead to more dramatic explorations, including human exploration of Mars and the start of entirely new space-based industries, such as asteroid mining. While the exploration and potential colonization of space has long captured our imaginations, the growing reliance on space infrastructure could lead to new frictions here on Earth. Control of space could be an important flash point as more nations come to rely on assets in space. The militarization of space is not impossible, and an anti-satellite war could have far-reaching consequences for the United States. The Army relies heavily on satellites for secure global communications, intelligence collection and coordination of joint maneuvers.
synthetic biology
Humans have manipulated the genetic code of plants and animals through selective breeding and hybridization for thousands of years, long before Mendel established the fundamental laws of inheritance or the Avery-McLeod-McCarty experiments. However, as our understanding of genetics improves, it is becoming possible to engineer custom organisms by constructing new DNA sequences from scratch. GMO crops represent the vanguard of this technology, but we are on the verge of a broader revolution that will turn life itself into information that can be written and rewritten like computer code. Scientists are already engineering algae that secrete biofuels and use DNA to encode thousands of gigabytes of data. In the next 30 years, synthetic biology will produce engineered organisms that can detect toxins, create biofuels from industrial waste, and deliver medicines through symbiotic relationships with human hosts. At the same time, synthetic biology represents enormous risks, including engineered biological weapons and invasive synthetic organisms that could disrupt natural ecosystems.
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