Investment is a person's cognitive realized, what kind of knowledge has, there will be what kind of output. Tend to be respected cognitive breadth, depth, position and personal profit is to be weakened thing. Breadth, depth can bring the extended depth of thought and knowledge, we tend to think, you can copy a steady profit is breadth and depth of products shipped, only to reach the breadth and depth of the cognitive system, will naturally get a good return .
Do not envy one day how much people earn, or hunters ate daily limit, I remember when we have a warrant when the warrants on the last day when there are only a few cents billions of funds traded in the fight inside a day to earn several times the people a lot of people, but over time, most of these people are devoid of in the river of time, earnings also return to the market. Because they do not know what to make of what kind of money.
In our A-share market, there is a unique landscape and a portion of the force, called "hot money" because always see a variety of continuous daily limit, to generate profits in the short term, but also by a lot of people's attention and sought after that they It is the most sensitive part of the market people. Actually I do not think so. Because this represents a large group, at a certain time profit is higher there is a problem, "survivor bias" in such a large population, can become afraid only a few evergreen is rare. Perhaps this group is not the smartest and most sensitive market money, but added that the market may be a group of the most speculative instinct.
1, the system of cognitive errors
In the build personal knowledge system has two errors: 1), knows all things, knows a lot of sense, but the standard is not enough; 2), unconventional, can not make up the logic of falsification.
"I know everything, know a lot of sense, but still had a bad this life." Central Standing Committee appeared in daily life such a situation, many ordinary people can speak very philosophical, but they can not become "everyone." Almost all of them are talking about investors' pass on astronomy dawn geography; know before five hundred hindsight five hundred; "" up to international politics, down to the common people ", he does not know," meal operating fierce as a tiger, a look at the score of zero to five. " Erudite generally two kinds of people, one is Charlie Munger, erudite wise; one is Beijing taxi drivers, erudite poor mouth. I know more and do not represent learned, does not necessarily represent the investment can do, have their own criteria and frameworks.
"Maverick, made up of logic can not be falsified." Everyone wants something new, showing their own distinctive. So always concocting all kinds of strange logic, even with slogans like logic to explain and understand market investment behavior, "great swordsman, for country and then set", "The government needs to finance a bull market, state-owned enterprises predicament," "Chinese core assets enjoy high premium. " A specious opinions, innovative and surprising. But the operation time, follow the crowd, which plate up good, I would advocate plate which, inevitably "trend trading." Finally back to claiming credit, called "surprise."
"Surprise" This is a serious misunderstanding of people saying, "The Art of War," "Where the war who, in order to exact to Clipsal," inside the "odd", pronounced "ji", is "odd" and "odd ": meaning is superfluous. "Art of War" is the original intent of this sentence: "positive action with the enemy soldiers to ambush a extra troops, the reserve is to disrupt the enemy's sudden appearance in combat deployment, the key to winning." Do not be understood as "wacky" thing. Investment as war, the ancient star, marshal few examples of a surprise move, the more positive it is a division defeat the enemy (even at odd defeat the enemy fame star later mostly so). Often people in the world understand the "odd" more just tactical victories, "tactical victories" ultimately inevitable "failure of strategy." Cognitive investment is the same, to a clear understanding of the big trend and direction of large, small details and the company is only "tactical", the general trend is the "strategic." One is the "intelligence" of issues, one is the "wisdom" of the problem.
2, quadruple cognitive system evolution
Cognitive system is the way of looking at the world and the way of thinking, cognitive system as shown above listed four stages: I know they do not know, do not know they do not know, do not know know know know.
The first stage: I know they do not know - knowledge of range
Generally new to invest the time, you know that they do not know anything, trying to absorb all kinds of knowledge, and strive to expand their knowledge, what want to learn, willing to learn anything. This time, watching a bunch of great people talking logic and reason are extremely worship, thought they was amazing, wait for them to remember every word, every detail. Research, research industry feel when every word is important, efforts to want to find out the highlights and investment ideas from every word or every detail. This process usually lasts two years, in order to proceed to the next stage.
The second stage: do not know they do not know - depth perception
In this phase is usually in two years, with some basic knowledge, sustained attention to an industry long enough time, thinks he knows a lot of things, but not enough depth and width, but thinks he knows all.
This phase began to differentiate, that is, many people began to invest more and more far away at this stage.
Some people think they've found a "shortcut Holy Grail", began to move toward the other direction, from the "beginner's mind" further and further away, began to think to cut corners, although the cost of "shortcut" that people could not walk this road investment in yuan, there may even be a problem of deviation, but shortcuts can get some people to reach others short-term money, fame, status. So at this time we should ask people who do invest a thing, what do you want? Just want money, or want to go further on the road to investment, and understand some of the rules, a clear conscience, freedom of work and life?
Some people think they know a lot of things, as soon as possible to use the actual investment, and in a certain market, maybe good luck (good luck is a skill, but also can ruin a person). He just adapt to the prevailing perception of the market, or his perception is wrong, but the market is bullish, he believes he is the right perception, and so linear extrapolation for the experience, but when the market changes, it is difficult to study the depth of the company's collapse quiet heart to do, to think "real business logic." Investment fear most is "if you think you know yourself, what actually do not know."
Some people always maintain a humble attitude, cognitive effort to "real business logic." When the boundary continues to expand, will see past the point of knowledge, law, business models, etc. gathered together, forming a point line, the line forming surface, forming a three-dimensional surface, eventually formed their own cognitive framework. These are people who can go further on the road of investment person, but this person is too small.
This stage generally go through two or three years, three years to achieve multi-company, multi-industry, multi-market a full range of research and thinking. Set up is not a simple thought he read a few books, in-depth study of a few companies look at a few industries that make money will be invested in investment this thing is a very long, long process, cognitive system five years would, in the final Chiang Xinpu asset management Limited has been told about this process, called "five-year research freedom, financial freedom for five years, five years of life freely." Five years is still relatively a more normal time, or in the case of someone pointing, even for a long time and some people are hard to get out the second stage.
The first stage and second stage need to know "technique" and the various "technique" evolution rise to "Road."
What is "art", "art" is the characteristic of a variety of commercial and economic laws, is the accumulation of experience and evolution. You know the subsequent logical deduction would look like under what circumstances information; know what kind of business model development follow-up will face any problems; know business decisions and actions what kind of situation; know the direction and development of the industry context; We know how to judge good and bad companies. Most of these books will not tell investors is the need to accumulate their own evolution through continuous research, the real objective is to pursue business practices. On the basis of the further evolution of the surgery in order to rise to the "Road" level, that is, philosophy, investment criteria, building capacity circle of investment.
The third stage: I do not know you know - established investment philosophy, standards, capacity circle
In the first two stages of continuous refinement own knowledge, and these cognitive efforts to establish themselves consider to be "universal principles" of the time. This universal principle is his own investment philosophy, standards, circle of competence.
Investment philosophy: Most articles and books are masters at talking about investment philosophy. This is to make their own perception, not superstition "master" and can not be applied mechanically to any master. S growth and which has a specific factor for each master, his logical framework and a clear brand of the times, can not understand the times in which the master can not understand the masters framework and system (I particularly like Jiang's return to every master teacher of birth, age and life story in a column chart, we can know is what happened what led to the establishment of their investment thinking and philosophy).
No single investment philosophy can adapt to all markets. "To buy more or more, do not stop", "stop to learn"; "To reverse operation abandoned as I," "to follow the trend, not to buck the trend, and most people stand together"; "encounter Do not care about the loss, just a temporary "and" loss will cut off, leaving only profitable. " Which in the end listen to? ? Make money, say, "We stand on the side of the trend, we have to follow the trend"; lose money, say "we are worth the investment to buy more or more, the market has not yet found." Two opposing things, the flexibility to switch. It is to try to fool the audience, or to try to fool ourselves? Right tap is split personality.
Application of investment philosophy is related to the problem (that is, investment principles) established investment criteria, what kind of philosophy by what standard.
Investment Criteria: Investment Buffett Balao standard is called "hitting zone", to this area, is not it should do the transaction, such a transaction is active even buy a "set" of the transaction. A person's investment criteria and investment philosophy is to complement what kind of investment criteria, will have what kind of investment philosophy; corresponding investment philosophy in turn, will form the corresponding investment criteria. Do business believe in "quick" investment philosophy, it is a fast track investment criteria, market sentiment; do value investing, believes the value will return, so the valuation is low enough investment criteria; investment trends do believe in "the market is correct, the trend will continue ", so investment criteria is the market trend.
The vast majority of people will be stuck in the "established investment criteria," this threshold, they can not form an effective "replicable, sustainable" standards, but it is an investment philosophy know more than one big deal to talk clearly and logically . Only investment philosophy and not "investment criteria" of support, castles in the air, this is called "small surgery barrier, Avenue not." No amount of investment is to know the truth, and ultimately just had that "mouthful golden rule, people were slaughtered sheep."
Circle of competence: this time have the ability to determine their own circle, and when the standard for investment, what time is not suitable, the middle of what is different, where different places. There is no way that you can never beat the market, there is a self that found the investment "Holy Grail", can many times to beat the market of asset management companies, called "long-term capital asset management company", their ways and means to be higher than a lot of people , luxury line, luxury background, invincible and cognitive strategies. Beat the market for many years, it is almost no net curve retracement of the rise. Then they encountered inappropriate market (also called Black Swan), in an instant all zeros. Do not want to make every penny, just to make that part of their own to earn on the market.
For people new to investing, he came into contact with the company, the industry and the prevailing market conditions would circle his ability to produce a deep imprint. In particular prevailing market conditions would invest his entire career play a decisive role.
Investment industry which has the phrase "joined the line is a bear market, a person is lucky; the line is the bull market is likely to ruin a person." Bull admission of people, most accept the logic of thinking is wrong, the latter takes longer to reverse the wrong perception, but also take longer to make up their basic skills; bear admission of people to accept the logical thinking is characterized by a conservative, conservative, safe, very solid basic skills.
If you start to be in contact with the appliance industry, basic skills, logical thinking system is the most comprehensive system; if the contact is a little odd to start a new specially known for the industry, then re-establish the high degree of difficulty thinking system.
The fourth stage: I know you know - virtue, cultivating
Have their own standard, start at the highest level - "virtue, cultivating." Too many articles are talking about the mentality and methods, many bigwigs talking about how to eliminate their own mood swings, overcome by greed and panic, but for the vast majority of people in contact with the investment, it is part of "a sixty equipment to armed Xinshoucun novice, "do not have access. Because there is no set up their own standards and self-confidence, then what use these methods?
Attitude is very important in the investment, we retrospect we missed the bull and the bull encounter. Ninety percent is not enough to buy heavy, take long enough. why? I do not think a single study is not clear can be resolved. Maybe a lot of it is from the mentality.
Good times to stay awake, insist on keeping adversity. Market paranoid fear of heart and steadfast heart combined with each other, adhere to the correct faith, to maintain the right attitude.
Market awe, reverence from the heart of the market. Each of us in front of the market is very small, can not change any of the trend, not the national team nor the stock market crash stock market crash 2.0 and 3.0 saved, we are begging on the market, every decision is in the "Monte", "kept on the market reward a date, Mongolia wrong Pa layer of skin. " Wrong is our lack of capacity, awareness is not enough, we must strive to enhance their knowledge. With a market awe heart. In doing so, the market rewarded rations, not how good we are, good luck, market tours eat. As long as the market there, how much money can earn, how much money can be loss of light. As long as the market, they will never learn to finish.
We have too many people, because the profit carried away by their own minds, can not keep a sober mind, is no longer the fear of the market. Full of disdain for others, and disrespect of the market. Or in the event of reverse market-style changes, so always think is "how I used to profit, if through hard times, before insisting that how I profit, in the past like this, will continue to replicate back, I should insist on this approach, see high profit is mine, I have to come back through this way of fishing. " Greedy, fearless defeated the objective judgment and a cool head in the wrong "belief" adhere to the longer, the more miserable to lose.
When different markets and anticipation when they be able to adhere to the correct faith, adhere to the correct way of thinking, whether hunters dare to bottom, if you can do a good job overall risk control, make the appropriate plans, whether or not the courage to continue to adhere to the process of decline down. I respected teacher once said Jiang owned their case, from 0.6 times PB of airline stocks, buy 0.45 times, continues to buy with. How important "only the paranoid survive," Andy Grove's words in the investment market is, but we have to ensure that they adhere to the correct beliefs and opinions.
What is the right religion? Is the basic law of development of things, not to price increases optimism, not pessimism to falling prices, the development of enterprises, the price level is a certain law, a clear understanding of the relationship and the logic behind their own framework and methodology.
Loneliness, defensible bustling.
Source: "Valuation Logic - border investment thinking."