At present, the number of new confirmed cases of novel coronavirus infection caused by pneumonia (hereinafter referred to as the new crown pneumonia) in several days continued to decline, the epidemic prevention and control measures already play a significant effect. In addition to the epidemic in Hubei Province is still grim, other provinces overall significant improvement. February 12 we "professional model predicts the turning point coming when the new pneumonia epidemic? "The article analyzes the inflection point of the country, including general activity, including Hubei, industry and many friends are very concerned about when to end the epidemic outside of Hubei and resume normal production order, we want to write a free country for Hubei the epidemic analysis and forecasting.
Ado, let's Conclusion: As of 2020, at 4:00 on February 2 on the 16th, the country (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan and Hubei region) new crown pneumonia existing number of confirmed cases has passed the peak, about to enter the stage of accelerated reduction, new the number of confirmed cases will fall to around February 19 digits, confirmed cases down to single digits in about April 8, ending in mid-April to late epidemic.
For detailed modeling process, please read on.
First, the epidemic mathematical modeling
1, data preparation epidemic
Note: All epidemic data from the National Health Committee and Health Committee of Hubei Province health official website.
We use a parameter identification from 1 February 2020 to the data began in 2020 February 13 this time for the spread of the epidemic dynamics model data 14 to 15 February for testing model effects.
Data sets:
China (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan and Hubei region) existing daily number of confirmed cases (hereinafter referred to existing confirmed cases);
China (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan and Hubei region) the daily number of new cases diagnosed (hereinafter referred to as new confirmed cases);
China (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan and Hubei region) daily cumulative number of cases discharged from hospital cases and cumulative mortality (hereinafter collectively referred to cure and deaths).
2, the definition of mathematical symbols
For the convenience of description, we define the following mathematical symbols and their meanings:
3, the spread of the epidemic dynamics model
IR can be relatively easily established in accordance with existing data model relationship:
4, the model parameter identification
5, model predictions
1 China (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan and Hubei region) epidemic prediction map
Second, summary
截至2020年2月16日24:00，全国（不含湖北及港澳台地区）新冠肺炎现有确诊病例数量峰值已经过去，即将进入加速减少阶段，预计4月中下旬疫情结束。继2月12日的拐点预测文章之后，湖北地区疫情数据发生了较大变化并且与全国其他地区的疫情差异较大。因此，本文利用湖北外的疫情数据再次从数学建模的角度分析全国（不含湖北及港澳台地区）疫情的发展趋势，为大家提前安排生产生活恢复工作提供一定的参考。相信在党中央的正确领导下和社会各界的努力下，新冠肺炎阻击战必胜。
免责声明：
疫情发展受人员流动、疫苗的使用及多种干预措施的影响，数学模型难以预判这些干预措施，并且所限定时间节点前的数据仅代表当前的疫情控制情况，基于该数据的预测结果仅供参考。考虑到防控措施不断加强，模型的预测结果可能会显著偏离实际情况。
本分析报告基于公开疫情数据，通过理解公开文献中的传染病模型并加以改进得到。分析预测结果仅作为研究参考，非官方结论。发布者不对本文结果和结论的准确性负责。
疫情期间
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