After the end of Moore's Law: photonics replace electronics, PDA replace EDA

　　In the past, we will focus on the annual forecast of electronic products (IC and EDA), but recently the focus shifted Photonics, so I forecast for 2020 focused on this area.
　　Historically, photonics has been a gallium arsenide technology. Past, present and future will always be the future of technology. Analysts predict rise forever in photonics. Next year, with the end of Moore's Law or slow down in the field of electronics, photonics will be self-contained, hockey stick into the stage of its development. Despite an alarming rate photonics playing an increasingly important role in our ecosystem of technology, but it has not yet achieved explosive growth.
　　Analysts predict the rise always in photonics; next year, with the end of Moore's Law or slowdown in the electronics field, Photonics will establish their own position, to enter the stage of development of the hockey stick (hockey stick effect (Hockey-stick Effect) , refers to a certain fixed period, low pre-sales, sales to the end of the period there will be a sudden increase, but also in a continuous cycle, this phenomenon will cycle, similar to the shape of its demand curve hockey stick, it is called hockey stick phenomenon in supply chain management). While photonics growing at an alarming rate plays an increasingly important role in our technology ecosystem, it is expected that explosive growth has not happened. 
　　Why is that? There are several reasons. First, photonics do not meet Moore's Law: the wavelength of light is the wavelength of light. This is a constant. It is not by half every two years, so amazing advances in the field of electronics driven by Moore's Law does not apply to just photonics.
　　Next, an electronic engineer will always clever, whenever the end of Moore's Law is about to declare, there will be new approaches emerge, engineers continue to break the electronics field once thought to be an insurmountable obstacle. Therefore, the application of photonics with electronics instead of still being replaced more and more intelligent electronic design. Replace electronics with photonics may still be inevitable, but the timeline is still moving forward.
　　Finally, in the past half century, electronics has developed into today's complex, well-functioning design and manufacturing ecosystem, but this development has not happened in photonics. Photonics today's eco-system is still the most similar to the early electronic ecosystem 1980s.
　　2019, more large companies acquired major supplier of optoelectronics, such as Cisco acquired Luxtera, and now the acquisition of Acacia Communications, II-VI acquired the leading global provider of optical communication products supplier Finisar, Broadcom acquired them from Foxconn the optical transceiver equipment assets. Many people believe that this trend is the recognition of photonics era, as well as major telecom providers need to provide leading-edge photonics solutions.
　　That year it? Photon Society in 2020 became the focus of it? Next we will predict the trend will affect several inflection arrival time.
　　In shorter and shorter distance, photonics is becoming increasingly important, and then into the mainstream, and eventually become dominant. Today, telecom operators have provided long-distance communications through several kilometers of fiber to your family and business travel. Now, photonics has been transferred to the data center. Ultra-large-scale data centers worldwide in power consumption, cost, calories, data bandwidth and latency are struggling state. Instead of copper wire solves all these problems with the fiber. Compared with copper, fiber cheaper, faster, less delay, higher bandwidth, and less power consumption, thereby reducing the cost of electricity and heat.
　　An optical fiber between a data center takes over the rack has been completed, and the fiber has been moved on the same server rack interconnections. Therefore, photonics has grown from a dominant position in one kilometer from the developed to the extent of ten meters distance, to the distance of one meter. By 2020, the photonic integrated circuit (PIC) will become more common in the market, so that the photonics become meaningful in the millimeter distance. The ongoing integration of photonics and electronics work comprising a laser chip including the photonics microns to reduce correlation distance.
　　As Ethernet data transmission speed continues to migrate in 2020 from 100G to 200G, photonics required either end of the optical fiber transceivers becoming increasingly attractive. 100G expansion work has been basically completed. By 2020, the transition to 200G of the work will be carried out smoothly, the early adopters will transition to 400G. Through clever engineering, electronics can speed 100G continue to run well, but the photons already has a competitive and there are many 100G photonic transceiver designs to choose from on the market. IC designer where we will see more of wisdom, but in 400G, electronic products will lose even more control of the transceiver market, and photonics will start from the relevant aptitude universal development. When we reach 800G and 1T (Note: This should be the future for a long time before they can reach), the photonic technologies will dominate, will hardly find electronic transceiver.
　　FANG (Facebook, Amazon / Apple, Netflix, Google) photonics design team will focus on adjusting the photonic transceiver according to their own specifications, which will accelerate the photon dominance in the data center. Operates huge data centers, they will get great benefits in the design of photons, the photons are designed to meet their specific needs, as we saw canines as integrated circuit design their own. By 2020, we may not see the results of this activity, but it will significantly improve the world photon design capabilities, speed up the evolution of commercial photon ecosystem.
　　Today, photonic foundry mainly dominated by small businesses or R & D-type foundries, such as SMART Photonics, LionX, Ligentec, imec , Leti and AIM, they are usually provided for research and development or MPW, rather than large-scale commercial production. Although solid state wafer fab in a leading position in its optoelectronics (indium phosphide as a laser) aspects, but these fab does not yet have the ability to drive large commercial market, but they have not the opportunity to develop large-scale semiconductor wafer factory built up over the past few decades, extreme customer support processes.
　　FANG is the main customer of the world's leading semiconductor foundries. These foundries noticed an increase in photon design projects, have entered or are considering entering the Photonic Service. The plant will utilize its production of knowledge, experience and skills to build a mature ecosystem, thus speeding up the commercialization process.
　　In the past few years, TowerJazz and GlobalFoundries and other leading semiconductor foundries began to provide services for the photonics business. By 2020, other major semiconductor foundries will enter the photonics business. New addition of these foundries will accelerate commercialization of silicon photonics. Advantage of an attractive photonics semiconductor foundries are not required to provide cutting-edge technology, so no large-scale electronic product development and capital investment. Instead, photonics can utilize the full capitalization of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to obtain profits.
　　Photonics indicator is the emergence of a mature foundry process development kit (PDK) is. The first photon PDK appeared about two years ago, with the foundry PDK provides for a variety of design tools, they began to become popular. Compared with the library semiconductor foundry provide these PDK is still relatively primitive, but they are commercialized photon ecosystem mature important and significant step, we need to build strong cooperation between foundries and photonic design automation (PDA) Company relationship. Together they produce new PDK, and promote the development of existing PDK. As manufacturing and test more of photonic IC, more and more data can be used for statistical analysis. 2020 will occur based on statistics of PDK, Monte Carlo and enable static analysis process corners in more advanced simulation tools PDA. This will result in a more robust design, the new emphasis on manufacturability, which is another requirement photonics commercialization.
　　Mature EDA vendors are noticed emerging optoelectronics markets. They provide design tools for this market, and PDA with leading companies formed a key alliance to provide a complete, integrated design flow. Last year, Mentor launched LightSuite Photonic Compiler, Tanner tools while taking advantage of its schematic and layout. Cadence introduced by CurvyCore curve function to enable its industry-leading Virtuoso custom design platform for photonics. Mentor and Cadence are designed to process and leading provider of simulation photon Lumerical integrated. For example, Cadence provides a co-simulation, the entire design process can be driven by Virtuoso. Synopsys is taking a more independent strategy.
　　We expect to join the major EDA vendors indicates that the price will be higher PDA tool. The average price of popular EDA tools is much higher than the PDA tool. This imbalance is not sustainable in the long term, because it will hinder the ability of the investment required for PDA and PDA companies to compete in the new EPDA environment. Although the change does not happen suddenly, but it is consistent.
　　Last year, there has been an integrated electronic - photonic design automation (EPDA) processes, by 2020, with the increase in the statistical design and manufacturing (DFM) capabilities, they will become more complex. Statistical considerations will require more computing power, so in 2020 we will see the high-performance computing used in PDA, Amazon AWS and Microsoft Azure cloud to be provided through the use of photons in all of these photons its data center an important participant.
　　Compared with the electronics, photonics design contains only some of the components elaborate. PDK foundry provided can be found in many of these components, but each photon cutting-edge design will always contain some of the key components of a more general foundry PDK can not provide. This provides an opportunity to build photonic IP (PIP) services for a number of well-positioned companies. Improve the management, the company has Zhuoyue Guang sub-design capability and focus, as well as the opportunity to get low-cost design tools, is likely to drive the rise of this market. With the tireless efforts of the photon design, these companies will provide excellent design. Hope a leading provider of photonic design of PIP will work with these suppliers, their component design outsourcing in order to concentrate its resources in other value-added areas, such as the entire PIC design. In the initial stage, PIP business is likely to remain operational similarity and custom design services.
　　Photonics breakthrough design methodology will provide higher quality, design more manufacturable, and will reduce barriers, and therefore no longer needed photonics design a doctorate in physics. Better design will drive Photonics can compete and win the competition applications. The company has a qualified designer will make a greater ability to photonics with its design team, leading to greater competition, leading to better products and faster development.
　　We have seen the impact of photons inverse design from Stanford University news and Lumerical cooperation with the open source community of origin. We begin to see, through greatly improved the quality factor, greatly shorten the design cycle, component design can be more easily completed.
　　Even the best release of design, we have seen improvements, usually takes several days to complete. We see orders of magnitude improvement components. Simplified automated design method Photonic Inverse Design will replace the manual iterative process today, and apply a variety of photonic components in 2020. PhotonicInverse Design influence on photonics will be similar to the combined effects of logic IC design. 1980s. This will expand the circle of qualified Photonics designers and speed time to market for photonics design. We believe that the work of designers like to improve the level of abstraction of the transition photon reverse design. As IC design to improve the level of abstraction of the release of the workload IC designers, like
　　<strong> Applications photonics </ strong>
　　<strong> Transceivers: </ strong> 2020 will continue the trend in photonics to take over the data center. In 2020, when we upgraded from 100G to 200G and 400G Ethernet transmission speed reached, this will be more apparent.
　　<strong> LiDAR (laser radar): </ strong> In 2020, we will see the introduction of multi-photon-driven lidar design. Laser radar is the key technology of autonomous vehicles, a large number of startups focused on reducing the size of LiDAR (a reduction card) and cost reduction (an order of magnitude), some of which will showcase its design in 2020. In addition, we will also see at least LiDAR-based photonics designed by a well-known leader in LiDAR company.
　　<strong> 5G: </ strong > to 2020, we will actually see the construction of 5G. This will promote mass production of photonic chip, because in future and the process are deploying a new photonic technologies such as NG-PON2 like. With the deployment of millimeter wave 5G, 5G hockey inflection point will occur. However, this broader 5G construction will not actually take place in 2020.
　　<strong> Sensor: </ strong> may be a bit tedious, but it is the application of photonics are developing steadily, and this progress will continue into 2020. Medicine is a particularly interesting area of great opportunity for the photoelectric sensor. Progress in the medical field will depend more on laws and regulations, rather than technology, 2020 will not be a breakthrough in this field.
　　<strong> AR / VR: < / strong> The easiest way to predict the future of our technology is watching "Star Trek." All Star Trek technology will eventually achieve. For photonics, this is good news. If we want the shuttle to the fence, photonics will play an important role.
　　<strong> quantum computing: </ strong> to promote the application of another quantum photonics. Quantum 2020 will not be, but we do expect at least there will be an important quantum statement so that everyone shocked.
　　<strong> summary </ strong>
　　future of photonics technology will be developed steadily in 2020. The growth rate is impressive, a large number of applications will be the focus. Engineers in the field of electronic technology talents depletion, as well as the evolution of photonics ecosystem will further binding the pace of growth in electronics. With mature, mature signs of foundry business to join and design automation becoming more common. 2020 is the year of commercialization of photonics.
　　Original: <a href=" https://semiwiki.com/eda/280982-photonics-come-into-focus-2020-predictions/ "target="_blank"> https://semiwiki.com/eda/280982- -Come-INTO-Photonics Focus-Predictions-2020 / </a> ;
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