Monte Carlo Income Budget
Data reference: "Corporate Finance" Chapter 7 Risk Analysis, Real Options and Capital Budgeting Section 2
Barbecue grill sales:
| Probability (%) | Industry sales volume next year |
|---|---|
| 20 | 10 |
| 60 | 10.5 |
| 20 | 11 |
market share:
| Probability (%) | Share next year (%) |
|---|---|
| 10 | 1 |
| 20 | 2 |
| 30 | 3 |
| 25 | 4 |
| 10 | 5 |
| 5 | 8 |
Sales growth rate:
| Probability (%) | Share next year (%) |
|---|---|
| 20 | 1 |
| 60 | 3 |
| 20 | 5 |
Model building:
One year’s income can be regarded as:
Barbecue grill sales volume in the entire industry ∗ * ∗BBI Taiwanese food market place ∗ * ∗Unit price of high-pressure hydrogen barbecue grill
According to industry forecast