Problem analysis (problem restatement)
The main purpose of the questions is to provide recommendations to the International Olympic Committee (IOC) to improve the way the Olympic Games are held and ensure their success. Recommendations need to be considered from different perspectives such as economics, land use, human satisfaction (athletes and spectators), travel, opportunities for future improvements, prestige of the host city/country, etc. and consider feasibility, implementation timelines and the impact of potential strategies on these indicators Influence. Your assignment is to write a one-page memo describing your proposal.
Data collection
Collecting data is a crucial step in the mathematical modeling process, because only by accurately collecting and organizing enough data can the problem be fully understood and analyzed, and feasible solutions can be developed.
Some websites (sections) where you can find the data you need for this question :
- The official website of the International Olympic Committee (IOC): https://www.olympic.org/ . This website can provide data on previous Olympic Games, including host cities, competition events, participating countries, etc.
- Olympic report released by the International Olympic Committee (IOC): https://www.olympic.org/olympic-games-report . This website provides detailed data on previous Olympic Games, including the number of participants, number of medals, competition venues, etc. .
Model building
The most direct idea is to establish a multiple linear regression model , using various impact indicators as independent variables and the success rate of the Olympic Games as the dependent variable . We can then use cross-validation and other evaluation methods to evaluate the model's performance and identify key factors and variables that affect success rates. Finally, we can make suggestions, such as strengthening the promotion of the host city/country, increasing the cultural activities of the Olympic Games, etc., to improve the success rate of the Olympic Games.
Matlab code
What we recommend more is to use stata
Compare the regression coefficients of respective variables
Note that when analyzing the impact of impact indicators on the success rate of the Olympic Games, we should also describe the top K indicators that have the greatest impact on the Olympic Games . Taking the above multiple regression analysis as an example, the size of the regression coefficient is used to compare the influence of different indicators . Then, you can select the top five indicators with larger regression coefficients as the indicators that have the greatest impact on the success rate of the Olympic Games.
sensitivity analysis
Sensitivity analysis was performed to determine the stability and reliability of the regression coefficients. If the regression coefficient does not change much, it indicates that the result has high reliability
Method extension
In the previous multiple regression model , we only considered Olympic data from a single year. If we were able to obtain multiple years of Olympic data and add it to our dataset, we could consider the impact of year factors on Olympic success. We can use time series analysis to analyze trends and changes in multi-year data, explore the development process of Olympic success rates, and the differences in success rates in different years.
In addition, we can consider adding more independent variables to our multiple regression model, such as the population, GDP, economic level and other factors of the host city, to further improve the predictive power and explanatory power of the model. We can also improve the complexity and predictive capabilities of the model by using nonlinear regression models or machine learning algorithms , such as decision trees and random forests , to further explore the complex relationship between the success rate of the Olympic Games and various factors.
In this case, the memo should contain the following:
- Internal header: It can be filled in according to the actual situation, such as the State Sports General Administration or the Olympic Games Organizing Committee , etc.;
- Memo title: Overview of recommendations and strategies, such as "Recommendations and Strategies for Improving Olympic Games Success Rates";
- Memorandum text: Analyze the factors that affect the success rate of the Olympic Games, put forward suggestions and strategies to improve the success rate, and analyze the feasibility and impact;
- Memorandum conclusion: summarizes the recommendations and strategies proposed, emphasizing their feasibility and importance;
- Memo attachments: You can add data analysis reports , relevant statistics, charts, etc. to support the conclusions and recommendations in the memo.
Note that the American competition is different from the national competition in that it focuses on aesthetics and illustrations. In the Z question, the beauty of the memo is particularly important. You can learn from past O awards.
See here for more details: In-depth analysis of 23 US competition (Z questions) | Complete code of mathematical modeling + full analysis of the modeling process - Zhihu (zhihu.com)