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First of all, technical analysis can only judge in advance what the next high probability event will be. It cannot be sure what will happen, let alone what will happen next. God can decide. If you cannot decide, there is no such thing as judging in advance. It can only be a high probability in a general direction, and small details can only be grasped in real time, and plans are better than predictions.
Second, the success rate of breakthrough is not high, and it is very low, quite low. It will be very uncomfortable to trade with the formula of opening a position upon breakthrough. The false breakthrough itself is a high probability, while the breakthrough is a small probability. Thinking about it on the other hand, if a breakthrough is a high probability, then a breakthrough is basically a real breakthrough, and then the market is basically a unilateral market. Do you think this is in line with the current market situation?
In fact, for this problem, we should step out of this box and limit our thinking to breakthroughs, otherwise we will never achieve breakthroughs. We should focus our thinking on finding key points instead of finding breakthrough points. The breakthrough point is very intuitive. New highs and new lows can be done without thinking. The problem is that if you can do it, other people can do it, and you know it, and other people know it, but you won’t make any money, and you will be used to wash your hands.
In fact, if you have experience, you can imagine using your brain that most of the breakthrough points are deceptive. The selection of key points is relatively vague and tests technology. You need to have a deep understanding of the patterns, compare the strengths and weaknesses of the varieties, and pay attention to the fundamentals and economic conditions. How can key points emerge without the cooperation of other factors?
For example, a bear market product is relatively weak among similar products, and its fundamentals are not good. Suddenly one day, there is a strong positive line, the daily limit is exceeded, the 20 and 30 moving averages are broken, and the highest price in 30 days is exceeded. Should you do it or not? I won't do it anyway, I may still go short. This is combined with the consideration of the disk. If you follow the system mechanically and the signal comes out and the daily limit is opened to go long, it may go up tomorrow and then go down the day after tomorrow. Then it said, "We must resolutely implement the system. No matter how the market moves, we must operate according to the signals and according to the rules. What is wrong is also right." If you do this a few times, you will know that the pot is made of iron.
There is nothing wrong with following the rules. The problem is that there is something wrong with the rules themselves. Many systems are based on incomplete information and fitted to historical market conditions, without in-depth understanding and analysis of the market, or real-time processing of information. Because you don’t know how to analyze, you don’t analyze, and you don’t know how to process, so you turn a blind eye to the information. That's why these situations occur.
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