Recently, at the 17th China Listed Company Value Selection Expert Review Meeting and Expert Seminar, Lu Ying, Director of Haitong Securities Research Institute, reminded investors to pay attention to the current macroeconomic and active factors in the A-share market. She said that this round of inventory cycle may bottom out in the third quarter of 2023 and then rise. At the same time, the current price-performance ratio of A-shares is very high, and the market is expected to pick up given the rising fundamentals. "
"Currently, with the support of the policy of stabilizing growth, the domestic macro-economy continues to recover and is generally improving." Lu Ying analyzed. She further focused on various sub-items and pointed out that in terms of consumption, service consumption has recovered rapidly, with service retail sales increasing by 20.3% year-on-year from January to July this year; in terms of investment, infrastructure investment has maintained a rapid growth rate, and construction progress has been rapid; production On the one hand, the cumulative profits of industrial enterprises from January to July continued to recover year-on-year; on the inflation front, the CPI in August rose by 0.1% year-on-year; the PPI rose to -3.0% year-on-year, basically confirming that the price bottom has appeared.
Looking forward, after the Politburo actively set the tone in July, the policy of stabilizing growth is still increasing. "Especially in the recent past, a series of real estate policies such as the purchase of houses but not loans, and the reduction of down payment ratios for first and second homes have been implemented continuously. Real estate fundamentals are expected to stabilize. "Lu Ying said, "With the gradual introduction and implementation of stable growth policies and the bottoming out of the economic cycle, the fundamentals of the domestic economy will gradually recover. At the same time, based on history, we estimate that the current inventory cycle may bottom out in the third quarter of 2023. As the inventory cycle bottoms out and rises, we expect economic growth to accelerate, with the full-year GDP growth expected to reach 5.3% year-on-year."
At the same time, Lu Ying reminded that the current price-performance ratio of A-shares is very high. "From a three-year rolling perspective, the risk premium rate of A-shares is at the mean + 1 times the standard deviation, and the stock-bond income ratio is at the mean + 2 times the standard deviation. In the future, The policy of stabilizing growth will promote rising fundamentals, and the A-share market is expected to pick up."
Looking forward to the subsequent specific industry configuration, Lu Ying believes that in the short term, securities companies, real estate, and consumption can be deployed around stable growth and active capital markets; in the medium term, look for areas in the digital economy where orders have improved and performance has emerged, such as policy-based digital infrastructure and information innovation. and other fields, such as artificial intelligence and upstream semiconductor fields on the technical side.