Extra :
1. Today, " Internal Reference: Looking at the Impossible Triangle of Investment from the Inability of Crypto Funds to Win the Big Pie " was published on "Liu Jiaolian Internal Reference". Welcome to follow the public account "Liu Jiaolian Internal Reference" and read it.
2. Yesterday, I published the article " Loss of Money " on the public account "Liu Jiaolian". Welcome to follow the public account "Liu Jiaolian" and read it.
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Overnight Bitcoin continued its slow decline above 29k. It’s the 6th of August again, the point to add position A of the “Ten Years Promise” long-term investment plan. According to the eight-character formula "insist on fixed investment", this time we will invest the principal amount of August A. The simpler way is to directly place a market price order to complete the transaction.
Figure: 8-A Position increase firm offer
Hello everyone, this is the fifth update of Liu Jiaolian’s "Ten Years Promise" Bazijue long-term investment in BTC evidence.
On August 1st just past, due to the decline in July, Jiaolian doubled its position through market orders according to the Bazi Jue's requirement of "increasing positions on dips". 7-B’s added position amount is 279.3u, and its position after investment is 0.0196B. Compared with June 6, the number of positions held has increased by 2.5 times+, the market value of positions has expanded from 1,000+ to 4,000+, and the position cost has increased from 18.20,000+ to 20.40,000+.
This time, 8-A added a position of 139u, with a post-investment position of 0.0243B. Compared with the last increase in positions on 8.1, the number of positions has increased by 24% month-on-month, the market value of positions has expanded from 4k+ to 5k-, and the position cost has dropped slightly from 20.4k+ to 20.3w+.
Figure: 8-A Accounting for adding positions
Figure: 8-A after investment
This is a cost-cutting increase, which means that our position has officially moved underwater, that is, it is in a state of floating losses.
Jiao Lian said: "The key to adding positions on dips as mentioned in the Bazi Jue is to insist on adding positions during the downward period." " It is an excellent time to amortize costs by adding positions at this time, because the nature of the market at this time is discount promotion. " This is what investment guru Howard Marks calls "downward amortization." He writes in the book: "It becomes quite difficult to hold on and continue to buy at lower prices (flattening down), especially when there is evidence that the decline will be larger." But if prices fall further, , “Your love for it should grow even further.”
In order to display the position retracement situation more intuitively, Jiaolian added several columns to the accounting table: highest monthly line (U), highest position (C), and ROI, which are used to record the H value of the monthly line in a certain month. (the highest value), the maximum value of the corresponding position asset value (C is the abbreviation of CNY, which is RMB, the same below), and the floating profit and loss percentage corresponding to the highest value.
So we can intuitively see that the entry time we chose in June happened to be a local high point. During the past two months as we implemented our position-adding plan, the floating profit quickly retraced and disappeared. From the highest floating profit of 21% in June, it dropped to 12% in July, and then to the current slight loss of 1%.
As Howard Marks said: "Don't bank on immediate success." "In fact, you will often find that the time to buy is on the way down, and you will soon see losses." "Unless it is really true. (almost impossible), otherwise you will eventually experience a decline at some point after making the investment. " If you are not used to this, then you might as well change careers. "
To intuitively feel the 20% retracement of floating profit, you might as well imagine that 100,000 yuan disappeared by 20,000 yuan in two months, 1 million yuan was lost by 200,000 yuan, 10 million yuan was lost by 2 million yuan, and 100 million yuan was lost by 20 million yuan... If you are a person who particularly cares about "opportunity loss", then your heart must be at least strong enough to hold A8 (8-digit, i.e. tens of millions) level assets and be able to withstand A7 (7-digit, i.e. one million) level assets. Short-term fluctuations, otherwise it is better not to invest. If you have the intention to make money but do not have the ability to bear losses, you will not be able to achieve anything.
Howard Marks continued: “You have to know the intrinsic value,” “You have to be confident enough,” “to hold on and keep buying, even when the price has dropped to a point that seems to suggest you’re doing something wrong,” and, of course, “you It must be correct” (Liu Jiaolian’s note: the correct target is chosen, which is why novices only touch the big pie within 3-5 years after entering the industry, because novices have not yet established their judgment and target selection capabilities). "There's nothing better than buying during a crash from someone who has to sell regardless of price." "It takes both long-term capital and strong psychology to do that. "
* * * Original by Liu Jiaolian * * *
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(Public account: Liu Jiaolian. Knowledge Planet: The public account replies "Planet")
(Disclaimer: None of the content in this article constitutes any investment advice. Cryptocurrency is an extremely high-risk product and may return to zero at any time. Please participate with caution and be responsible for yourself.)