15 Top Mental Models

Today I would like to share with you a few thinking models, whether it is a few points, a few open or other positions, it will be inspiring.

Charlie Munger believes that each discipline understands the world from a unique perspective, and they are all blind.

To go beyond the cognitive decision-making of ordinary people, you must master multiple core thinking models.

The following content is 15 extracted from Charlie Munger's 100 thinking models , which will benefit people for life. If you feel something after reading it, please share it with more people ~

01 Nonlinear thinking

Due to the long-term evolution of human beings, we are more inclined to understand the world in a " linear " way of thinking.

However, the nature of the world is nonlinear. The reason why some people in this world can achieve great success, while most people are mediocre, is the key to whether their way of thinking is linear or non-linear.

The core of nonlinear thinking:

1. Understand that the world is non-linear, leaps and bounds, and unpredictable;
2. Understand the core causes of qualitative change, accelerate or wait for the critical point to obtain huge benefits during the qualitative change period;
3. Have the courage to give up short-term interests during the accumulation period, and do things that can benefit the promotion of the previous article (such as investing more principal and accumulating more work experience during the accumulation period).

Non-linear thinking has five basic forms: systematic dialectical thinking, divergent thinking, reverse thinking, intuitive thinking and inspired thinking.

02 Golden Circle Thinking

The golden circle is the way to perceive the world, and it has three levels. Starting from why and exploring the essence of the problem is a sharp tool for the fastest dialysis of the root cause of the problem.

The thinking mode is to start from Why , why do you want to do this, what is the concept of doing this, and stimulate the emotional emotion from the heart to generate driving force;

Think about How recently , set goals and solve them step by step; the final result is What , which is more in line with the original concept.

• Why

: Think about why we do this, our goals and ideas;

• How

: What methods and measures are adopted;

• What

: The representation of the result.

The process of thinking about why for a company or a person is a determination of principles, boundaries, and values, and provides a general model for solving problems.

03 10+10+10 spectator thinking model

When faced with a decision or choice, when you hesitate, you can think about it:

10 minutes later, how do you think about your current decision-making? You will still be consistent or you will regret it;

10 months later, how will you think about the decision you made 10 months ago;

10 years later, how do I view my judgment and decision made 10 years ago.

This thinking model can be applied in: temporary judgment, big decision-making, predicting your own future, etc.

04 Anti-entropy increase thinking model

From a system, an organization, to a planet, and even each of us, we all conform to the law of entropy increase.

We become chaotic, disordered, rigid, lifeless, until we perish in this chaos.

Fortunately, the universe is balanced. Under the premise of entropy increase, it gives us a different path, anti-entropy increase, that is, self-organization and life.

Amazon CEO Bezos has a very deep understanding of anti-entropy. He made Amazon's services open enough, so there is Amazon cloud.

For new things, even a little achievement, he will greatly appreciate, requiring employees above the supervisor level to read "The Innovator's Dilemma" every week.

Anti-entropy increase is to reproduce life. The birth of planets from nebulae, the formation of lithospheres, atmospheres, rivers, monsoons, springs, mineral deposits on planets, are organized processes, a rebellion against disorder.

The culmination of this process of ordering and organizing was the emergence of life: clumps of DNA , single-celled organisms, multi-cellular organisms, plants and animals, all the way down to the most elaborately organized structure , the human being.

When a person is old, the best state is to return to the baby and nature.

For an enterprise to make itself anti-entropy, it means to make itself more dynamic, more open, more adaptable to external changes, and let it evolve itself in the environment.

At the same time, independent new businesses can continue to emerge, and new businesses can also continue to evolve.

In essence, continuous development is a process of entropy increase, and in order to break through discontinuity, a new curve must be " generated " , which is the best way to combat entropy increase.

05Three -layer explanation thinking model

For a thing, there can be three levels of explanation:

Reality layer, technology layer, bottom layer

。

The Reality Layer explains the superficial, the cause and effect that most people can see;

The technical layer will explain the law behind the reality, which is under the phenomenon, a law brought by a background, and a law of visible skills;

The bottom layer is a law that can be widely applied. It is a deep-level thinking model that understands human nature and understands laws.

The three-layer explanation thinking model can be applied to deeply analyze the cause of an event and understand the laws of a complex thing.

06Anti -fragile mental model

Things can be divided into three categories:

Fragile, Strong, Antifragile

。

Fragile things will be broken and damaged when they are subjected to external pressure, just like a glass will shatter when dropped on the ground; strong things will not be affected by external pressure.

And anti-fragile things can evolve with pressure in this fluctuating world and make themselves stronger.

Don't be overwhelmed by stress, it's the best energy for your evolution. Changes in the external environment will screen out the truly antifragile. Antifragile mental models can be applied to:

1. Analyze rationally from difficult situations, improve cognition, and gain energy;
2. Return to the heart from the pressure, enhance the mind and tolerance;
3. Relocate from the limitations and improve the vision and pattern.

Naturally, it is also anti-fragile. In this world, many natural things are elastic and antifragile.

There are many characteristics of nature. In nature, there are general laws such as spring, summer, autumn and winter. Adaptable creatures evolve from such fluctuations, while large and clumsy creatures such as dinosaurs become extinct because of this;

The human body also conforms to the laws of nature and is also anti-fragile. When a person breaks a bone, the bones produced will be stronger. People who have been poisoned will also have anti-drug characteristics.

Anti-fragility itself can face risks and benefit from risks to grow.

In the face of future uncertainty, we can:

1. Using asymmetry, small input, high output.
2. Become diverse, allowing yourself to have more than one skill or identity.
3. I believe that the non-linearity of the future will give us more opportunities and fun. In this world, because of the non-linearity, new creatures will appear continuously, new things will replace old things, and we will continue to grow and improve.

07 Principle of compound interest

Einstein said: Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world.

Buffett said: Life is like rolling a snowball, the key is to find enough wet snow and a long enough slope.

Charlie Munger said: Understanding both the power of compound interest and the difficulty of obtaining it is the heart and soul of understanding many things.

In a limited time, invest limited energy and wealth in a certain field continuously and repeatedly, persist for a long time, and eventually the positive impact will be like a snowball rolling bigger and bigger, and the return it will bring must exceed yours imagine.

This is typical compound interest thinking in economics.

Most people don't use compound interest in their lives, and they don't realize the power of compound interest.

Compound interest thinking requires us to look at things with a developmental and long-term perspective.

08 Gestalt fusion thinking model

To complete one thing, in addition to having a complete and clear logical thinking, it also requires the integration of various elements,  such as: human resources, material and money resources, timing and environment, etc.

It's like finishing the creation of a ceramic piece:

• In addition to the blueprints and ceramics that are created, mud is also needed, which is equivalent to resources related to material and money;
• And water is like a human being, which needs to be combined with clay; firing of ceramics also requires a suitable temperature and speed, which is like an invisible timing and background environment;
• The engraving on ceramics is like dealing with the details of things. The order of what to do first is also crucial.

Therefore, in order for a project to succeed, in addition to a plan that can be realized, it also needs to have sufficient manpower preparation, decomposition and layering of things, methodology support, process system incentive support, stable and clear decomposition of responsibilities and rights, and emergency plans  . and ideas.

Only by doing things in this way can it be done smoothly and get twice the result with half the effort.

Gestalt fusion thinking model can be applied in: the execution of things, thinking about the causes of things, predicting people's judgments, etc.

Only by considering enough factors, the mutual support of the overall needs, and the interrelationships between the factors can we judge and analyze more accurately.

09 Cartesian thinking model

Descartes was a great philosopher, he made a bold point, how can you prove that the world is real? Is there anything in this world that cannot be doubted?

He thought and thought again, but he never grasped that cornerstone. Until a certain moment, it was like lightning struck him.

He realized that there was only one thing that could no longer be doubted, and that was: I was doubting this.

That is:

I think,therefore I am

。

This matter is certain, so I exist, so no matter whether the current world is real or not, there must be a world.

And the current world, I don't know if it really exists.

This is critical thinking, the bold questioning of everything. We think that the evolution of science is inheritance, but it is actually subversion.

The next generation of scientists almost always subverts the previous generation.

As Jobs said:

stay hungry,stay foolish

; The stock god will say:

The only thing I know is I don't know anything

。

In people's cognitive experience, the more successful paradigms there are in the past, the more constraints they place on themselves.

10 acquired bias mental models

People make mistakes in judging a thing, often not because he doesn't know anything; but because he pays too much attention to the known part.

From a large Gestalt point of view, the information you know may be less than 5% . Therefore, the information you have already obtained may not only be unimportant, but may still be limited and biased.

In what life scenarios does acquired bias appear? for example:

1. When people are looking for a new job, it is often difficult to let go of the part they have done.
2. Persistence, even stubbornness, to stereotypes.
3. Nostalgia for useless old things.

Many of us have encountered similar situations. We know that many things are useless but we are reluctant to throw them away.

As everyone knows, the entropy of the room is increasing, and because your living environment is not simple enough, you will also become chaotic, dull, and the loss outweighs the gain.

In addition, it is difficult for new things to come in, and your life gradually falls into inefficiency and rigidity.

How to overcome acquired bias?

1. Lower yourself, be humble, and open-minded;
2. Think independently, start from the essence, use deductive method rather than inductive method, use the essence of things to reason instead of continuing to use previous experience;
3. Sort and organize. Organize information into categories and make everything orderly;
4. Re-analyze and evaluate the environment and information, which ones are reasonable, which ones are outdated, and which ones can be upgraded;
5. Know how to give up and let go;
6. Dynamic state of mind, possession is only temporary, change is eternal.

11 Permutation and combination thinking model

Like the compound interest model, the permutation model is not only a mathematical tool, but also a way of thinking that can improve the quality of our decisions.

In many cases, there are many factors that affect decision-making. Through classification and step-by-step, different permutations and combinations can be formed.

Everything is formed by the arrangement and combination of its constituent elements. Thinking is the movement of knowledge, the arrangement, combination and choice of knowledge.

The unprecedented permutation and combination of knowledge is innovation, and the externalization and materialization of objective and valuable thinking innovations are theoretical innovations and inventions.

Charlie Munger 's multi-dimensional thinking model is essentially a multi-dimensional combination of thinking, bringing together different interdisciplinary knowledge to solve a problem.

Different questions and subjects have different weights, and the comprehensive consideration of the questions will be more comprehensive and the probability of correctness will be higher.

A big problem can be decomposed into many related elements, so that we can see the whole problem clearly, and then find the key points. Starting from the key points can achieve twice the result with half the effort.

Combining many elements together, you can have a more comprehensive view of a problem, and avoid falling into the " Hammer Man " thinking in Charlie Munger's mouth .

12 Fermat-Pascal system

Among all the qualities of knowledge, ability, hard work, and patience, Charlie Munger values ​​rationality the most.

Charlie Munger said: " You must see the world as it really is, not as you think it is or as you wish it to be. Only in this way can you make the right choice. "  The Fermat-Pascal system is to recognize the real world basic tools.

The Fermat-Pascal system is a fundamental principle of probability theory.

In life, full of temptations, people make decisions based on experience and various psychological tendencies, thus falling into many traps.

Through the study and understanding of Fermat-Pascal's system, we need to understand cognitively what the actual probability of things is. After having a clear understanding, it will be more rational to make decisions.

Make these basic basic mathematical probability methods a part of our life, so that we will not hand over our advantages to others.

13 Prospect Theory

Prospect theory is an important thinking model for risk decision-making. It was proposed by Daniel Kahneman, a Nobel Prize-winning psychologist. It describes and predicts people's behavioral theory in the process of facing risks.

The prospect theory analysis framework has three characteristics:

• One is that most people are risk-averse when faced with gains;
• Second, most people are risk-loving when faced with losses;
• The third is that people are more sensitive to losses than gains.

Specifically look at:

1. Certainty effect: "Two birds in the bush are worse than one bird in the hand". Between certain benefits and "a gamble", most people will choose the certain benefits and feel safe in their pockets.
2. Reflex effect: When making a choice between a certain loss and a "gamble", most people will choose "gamble".
3. Loss aversion: The happiness brought by picking up 100 yuan for nothing can hardly offset the pain caused by losing 100 yuan.

14 flow model

" Flow " refers to the state of concentration and ecstasy when we are doing something - in this state, you don't even feel the existence of time. When things are done, we feel energized and very content.

This is a theory about human happiness. The conditions for immersing people in flow require:

1. Clear goals, tasks of appropriate difficulty - neither anxious nor boring.
2. Timely Feedback - Satisfaction with progress.

The reason why games are so popular is that the design of games satisfies flow theory. If the definition of games is expanded to include learning, work, sports, and education, to evaluate whether what you are doing satisfies the three points of flow, it will naturally go too far. be happy.

1. exert one's own ability.
2. The mind is completely concentrated and has control over the things at hand.

The flow state is the most beautiful and peaceful state we can achieve in our work. Passing through a state of flow creates a new state of flow.

Successful people are able to successfully transform their entire lives into a pure state of flow. They are tightly connected in all parts of life, and all activities have meaning.

15 Occam's Razor

" Occam's Razor "

, also known as

" Law of Simplicity "

,  this principle can be traced back at least to Aristotle's " nature chooses the shortest path " .

The core content is 

" Don't multiply entities unnecessarily "

, which is a simple and effective principle.

According to the principle of minimum energy, our life should be as simple as possible, and the simple and effective way is to form good habits.

Automatic transmission vehicles are gradually replacing manual transmission vehicles because automatic transmission satisfies the " simple and effective principle " for most users .

In the face of a complex investment market, you should pick up Occam's razor, simplify complex things, simplify your own investment strategies, distinguish those things that consume a lot of money, time, and energy, and then take steps to get rid of them.

We conclude with the famous words of Friedrich Maitland :

" Simplicity is the result of long and hard work, not the beginning. "