Extra :
1. Today in the "Liu Jiaolian Internal Reference" published "Internal Reference: LTC completed halving, what enlightenment does it have for the BTC halving next year?" " , welcome to pay attention to the public account "Liu Jiaolian Internal Reference" and read it.
2. The article "The Answer of Luochahai City " was published on the public account "Liu Jiaolian" yesterday . Welcome to follow the public account "Liu Jiaolian" and read it.
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Bitcoin surged and fell overnight. The bulls captured 30k for a short time, but were unable to hold on, so they had to retreat in a hurry. At present, it has retraced to the first line above 29k.
MicroStrategy increased its position again. In July, BTC closed down sideways, and MicroStrategy once again increased its positions on dips.
According to the Twitter disclosure of Microstrategy boss Michael Saylor, Microstrategy continued to increase its holdings of 467 BTC at a cost of 14.4 million dollars in July. Readers can easily calculate that the average price of MicroStrategy's July increase is $30,835.
Figure: MicroStrategy increased its position again
In addition, according to the posted MicroStrategy financial report, throughout the second quarter, MicroStrategy increased its holdings by a total of 12,333 BTC. As of the end of July, MicroStrategy’s total holdings were 15.28w BTC, with a total cost of $4.53 billion and an average cost of $29,672.
At this point in the writing, Jiaolian glanced down at its holding cost, which was 15,207 dollars, slightly better than MicroStrategy, and its holding cost was about half (-48.7%) lower than MicroStrategy.
However, from another perspective, with the continuous increase of positions above the cost line, the cost of holding positions has nearly doubled from less than $8,000 at the end of 2020. Compared with the extremely low value of 15450 in the bear market in November 2022, it is only a safety cushion of 1.6%!
Some readers may think, if you add positions below the cost line, can you lower the cost of holding positions? right. But here there are three problems of "planning", "courage" and "luck".
Let me talk about this "conspiracy" first. Do you have a systematic strategy to ensure that you can be invincible by adding positions according to the strategy? Most people don't. Basically, most novice investors are either timid or foolhardy, and there are very few who really have their own strategies and have been tempered in actual combat.
Let's talk about "courage". When the market really breaks down your holding cost, I am afraid that many people think of not increasing their positions after a fall, but frustration and remorse. Only a very small number of people can overcome the huge psychological pressure and persist in increasing positions underwater. And among these very few people, most of them got deeper and deeper because they mistakenly paid the truth to the altcoins, and were buried forever. Counting it down, there are only less than one in ten thousand people who can increase their positions underwater and watch the moonlight when the clouds open.
Finally, say this "luck". Even if you want to increase your position underwater, the market has to give you this opportunity. However, since the pie broke through the previous cycle high of $20,000 at the end of 2020, it will only retreat to $15,000 around November 2022. The rest of the past two and a half years have been higher than this position. Therefore, it must be higher than the holding cost range of 8k-15k. Therefore, if you want to increase your position underwater, you must not want to, but you really can't.
If there is any difference between 2021 and the first half of 2017, it is that at the beginning of 2017, after breaking through the "previous high" (the high point of the bull market in 2013), there was a quick pullback, compacting the gap near the "previous high" , to provide a solid support area after the bull market turned bearish; and in 2021, it will go straight up without looking back, breaking through 50,000 dollars all the way, rushing out of a double-headed bull, which leads to the "previous high" (2017 There was a gap around $20,000. The market did not spend enough time consolidating this area, so it failed to support it and break out after turning bearish in the second half of 2022.
From another perspective, the second half of 2022 is to make up for this lesson in the first half of 2021.
Now the class is over. The gap between 20,000 and 20,000 dollars has been consolidated, and it is basically impossible or at least very difficult to imagine returning to 15,000 dollars as some short sellers imagined.
* * * Liu Jiaolian original * * *
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(Public account: Liu Jiaolian. Knowledge Planet: Reply to "Planet" from the public account)
(Disclaimer: The content of this article does not constitute any investment advice. Cryptocurrency is a very high-risk product, and there is a risk of zeroing at any time. Please participate carefully and be responsible for yourself.)