Chapter VIII Progress Management

Chapter VIII Progress Management

8.1 Main process

include:

Planning schedule management
define activity
Sort activity order
Estimate Activity Resources (Planning Process Group)
Estimating Activity Duration (Planning Process Group)
Make a schedule
Control Progress (Monitor Process Group)

8.1.1 Planning schedule management

Overview : It is the process of formulating policies and procedures for the implementation of project schedule management, and forming a documented project schedule management plan

Role : Provide guidance and direction on how to manage, execute and control project progress throughout the project process

Inputs for planning schedule management :

1) Project management plan
2) Project Charter
3) Organizational Process Assets
4) Business environment factors

Tools and techniques for planning schedule management :

① Expert judgment
② Analytical technology
③ meeting

Outputs from planning schedule management :

① Project schedule management plan

The project schedule management plan stipulates:

(1) Project progress model formulation

(2) Accuracy

(3) Unit of measurement

(4) Organization program link

(5) Project schedule model maintenance

(6) Control critical value

(7) Performance measurement rules

(8) Report format

(9) Process description

8.1.2 Define activities

Activities :

Overview: It is the work required to complete the work package, and it is the most basic work unit for arranging work when implementing a project. There is a one-to-one or many-to-one relationship between activities and work packages, that is, it is possible for multiple activities to complete one work package.

Define the activity process :

Overview: is to identify and document all activities undertaken to complete the project deliverables
Main role: Break down work packages into activities as the basis for estimating, scheduling, executing, monitoring, and controlling project work

Define the input for the activity :

1) Progress management plan
2) Range benchmark
3) Organizational Process Assets
4) Business environment factors

Tools and techniques for defining activities :

① decomposition
② Rolling planning
③ Expert judgment

Define the output of the activity :

① Activity list
② Activity attribute
③ Milestone list

8.1.3 Sequencing activities

Overview : Sequencing activities is the process of identifying and documenting relationships between project activities

Role : Define a logical sequence of work to achieve the highest efficiency given all project constraints

Input to arrange activity order :

1) Progress management plan
2) Activity List
3) Activity attributes
4) Milestone List
5) Project scope statement
6) Business environment factors
7) Organizational Process Assets

Tools and techniques for sequencing activities :

① Leading map method (single code network map)
- Overview: Also known as the predecessor relationship mapping method, it is a method used to prepare project schedule network diagrams. It uses boxes or rectangles (called nodes) to represent activities, and the nodes are connected by arrows. To display the logical relationship between nodes, this kind of network diagram is also called a single-code network diagram. In the lead map method, each activity has a unique activity number, and each activity is marked with an estimated duration (the duration of the activity). Usually, the activities of each node will have the following times: earliest start time (ES); latest start time (LS); earliest finish time (EF) and latest finish time (LF).
- legend:
- dependencies
  - End-Start Relationship (Type FS)
  - End-to-end relationship (FF type)
  - Start-Start relationship (SS type)
  - Begin-End Relationship (SF Type)
② Arrow graph method (double code network network)
- legend:
- The basic principle:
  - ① Every activity and event in the network diagram must have a unique code, that is, there will be no identical codes in the network diagram
  - ② At least one of the codes of the immediate preceding event and the immediate succeeding event of any two activities is different, and the codes of the nodes become larger and larger along the direction of the arrow
  - ③ Activities flowing into (outflowing from) the same node all have a common successor activity (or predecessor activity)
③ Determine dependencies
- type:
  - Mandatory Dependency: Mandatory Dependency is one that is required by law or contract or determined by the inherent nature of the work
  - Selective Dependency: Selective Dependency is sometimes called Preferred Logical Relationship, Priority Logical Relationship, or Soft Logical Relationship
  - External Dependencies: External dependencies are dependencies between project activities and non-project activities. These dependencies are often outside the control of the project team. For example, the testing activities of a software project depend on the arrival of external hardware
  - Internal dependencies: Internal dependencies are predecessor relationships between project activities, usually within the control of the project team
④ Advance and lag
- Overview: Adding time advance and lag between activities can more accurately express the logical relationship between activities
- legend:

Output of permutation activity order :

① Project schedule network diagram
- Overview: It is a logical relationship (also called a graph of dependencies) between project activities. A schedule network diagram may include full details of the project, or it may list only one or more generalized activities. The project schedule network diagram should be accompanied by a textual description describing the basic methodology used for sequencing activities. Any unusual sequences of activity should also be detailed in the text description.
- Drawing method:
  - leading graph method
  - Arrow diagram
② Project file update

8.1.4 Estimating Activity Resources

Overview : Estimating activity resources is the process of estimating the types and quantities of materials, personnel, equipment, or supplies required to perform various activities

Role : To clarify the type, quantity and characteristics of resources required to complete the activity in order to make more accurate cost and duration estimates

Inputs for estimating activity resources :

1) Progress management plan
2) Activity List
3) Activity attributes
4) Resource Calendar
5) Risk Register
6) Activity cost estimation
7) Business environment factors
8) Organizational Process Assets

Tools and techniques for estimating activity resources :

① Expert judgment
② Alternative scheme analysis (multiple scheme analysis method)
③ Released Estimated Data
④ Project management software
⑤ Bottom-up estimation

Output for estimating active resources :

① Activity resource requirements
② Resource breakdown structure
③ Project file update

8.1.5 Estimating activity duration

Overview : is the process of estimating the number of work periods required to complete a single activity based on resource estimates

Role : Determine the amount of time required to complete each activity and provide the main input for the scheduling process

Inputs for estimating activity duration :

1) Progress management plan
2) Activity List
3) Activity attributes
4) Activity resource requirements
5) Resource Calendar
6) Project scope statement
7) Risk Register
8) Resource breakdown structure
9) Business environment factors
10) Organizational Process Assets

Tools and techniques for estimating activity duration :

① Expert judgment
- Overview: By drawing on historical information, expert judgment can provide the information needed to estimate the duration of an event, or give an upper bound on the duration of an event based on past experience with similar projects.
② Analogy estimation
- Overview: Also known as top-down estimating, a technique for estimating the duration or cost of a current activity or project using historical data from similar activities or projects. It is less expensive and less time consuming, but also less accurate.
③ Parameter estimation
- Overview: It refers to the use of historical data of a large number of projects to fit an estimation model, using factors such as scale, reliability, complexity, and developer capabilities as parameters to estimate the cost, workload, and duration of the project.
④ Three-point estimation (PERT method)
- Overview: Improve the accuracy of activity duration estimates by accounting for uncertainty and risk in the estimates.
- Standard Deviation:
  - Formula: (pessimistic - optimistic) / 6
  - Accuracy:
    - ± 1 standard deviation — 68%
    - ± 2 standard deviations — 95%
    - ± 3 standard deviations — 99%
  - PERT value
    - Formula: (pessimistic+optimistic+4*most likely)/6
⑤ Group decision-making technology
⑥ Reserve analysis (backup analysis method)
- Classification:
  - emergency reserve
  - management reserve

	emergency reserve	management reserve
1	known unknown risks	unknown unknown risk
2	is part of the time (cost) baseline	Not part of time (cost) performance benchmarks
3	Project managers are free to use	use subject to approval
4	allocated as a budget	not allocated as budget
5	is part of the earned value calculation	Not part of earned value calculation

Output for estimating activity duration :

① Activity duration estimation
② Project file update

8.1.6 Develop schedule

Overview :

By considering the schedule planning tool filled with project data as a schedule model, the project schedule planning tool can be regarded as a schedule model, and the presentation form of the project schedule (schedule plan) can be distinguished from the schedule data and calculation tools that generate the project schedule Come. A schedule model is a representation of the project activity execution plan, which includes duration, dependencies, and other planning information, and is used to generate the project schedule and other schedule information.
Developing a feasible project schedule is often an iterative process.
The approved final schedule will be used as a baseline for the process of controlling the schedule. As project activities unfold, most of the work of project time management will occur in the process of controlling the schedule to ensure that project work is completed on time.

Scheduling method :

Critical Path Method (CPM)
Critical Link Method (CCM)

Inputs for developing a schedule :

1) Progress management plan
2) Activity List
3) Activity attributes
4) Project progress network diagram
5) Activity resource requirements
6) Resource Calendar
7) Activity Duration Estimation
8) Project scope statement
9) Risk Register
10) Assignment of project personnel
11) Resource breakdown structure
12) Business environment factors
13) Organizational Process Assets

Tools and techniques for developing a schedule :

① Progress network analysis
- Techniques include:
  - critical path method
  - critical chain method
  - What-if scenario analysis
    - Overview: The results of scenario analysis can be used to estimate the feasibility of the project schedule under unfavorable conditions, that is, to analyze issues such as "how to deal with scenario x when it occurs". Contingency and response plans for overcoming or mitigating the consequences of unexpected situations.
  - Resource Optimization Technology
② Critical route method
- Overview: The critical path method is a method for estimating the shortest project duration and determining the schedule flexibility of the logical network path in the project schedule model. This schedule network analysis technology calculates the earliest start, earliest end, latest start and latest completion dates of all activities by forward and backward analysis along the schedule network path without considering any resource constraints.
- Note: The critical path does not include all schedule control points of the project
- legend:
③ Critical chain method
- Overview: The critical chain method, the buffer placed at the end of the critical chain is called the project buffer, which is used to ensure that the project will not be delayed due to the delay of the critical chain. Other buffers, connection buffers, are placed at the junction of non-critical and critical chains to protect critical chains from delays in non-critical chains. The length of each buffer period should be determined according to the uncertainty of the duration of the corresponding activity chain. The critical chain method is another schedule network analysis technique that allows adjustments to the project schedule based on limited resources. The critical chain method combines deterministic and stochastic approaches. At the beginning, use the schedule model to obtain non-conservative estimates of the duration of activities, draw the project schedule network diagram according to the given dependencies and constraints, and then calculate the critical path. After determining the critical route, take into account the availability and quantity of resources, and determine the schedule of resource constraints. This resource-constrained schedule often changes the critical line. In order to ensure the focus of the activity plan duration, the critical chain method adds duration buffer segments, which belong to non-work plan activities. - Once the buffer planning activities are determined, schedule the planning activities according to the latest start and late finish dates. In this way, instead of managing the total time difference of network routes, the critical chain method focuses on managing the duration of buffer activities and the resources used to plan activities.
- legend:
④ Resource optimization technology
- Overview: It is a technique to adjust the schedule model according to the supply and demand of resources.
- include:
  - Resource balance:A technique in which start and end dates are adjusted according to resource constraints in order to strike a balance between resource demand and resource supply. Demand exceeds available resources for a period of time; or resource levels change. Resource balancing is required when a resource is allocated to two or more activities within the same period of time. After resource balancing, resource usage can be improved, butMay lead to critical path lengthening. Certain projects may have a limited number of critical project resources, in which case the resources can be scheduled backwards from the end date of the project, a practice called byInverted schedule method for resource allocation, but it may not be able to formulate the optimal item and schedule。Resource balancing should not be done haphazardly if the team is dealing with contingency risks, otherwise it may cause problems or losses to the project. This should be considered after contingency risks have been dealt with.
  - Resource smoothing: Resource smoothing is a technique in which the activities in the schedule model are adjusted so that project resource requirements do not exceed predetermined resource limits. With respect to resource balance, resourcesSmoothing does not alter the critical path and the completion date is not delayed, that is, the activity is delayed only in its free-float time and total float time. Therefore, resource smoothing techniques may not achieve optimization for all resources.
⑤ Modeling technology
- Including: ① What-if scenario analysis; ② Simulation
⑥ Lead and lag
⑦ Progress compression
- Overview: Refers to reducing the schedule duration to meet schedule constraints, enforced dates, or other schedule objectives without reducing the project scope.
- include:
  - Crashing : A technique for compressing schedule duration with minimal increase in cost by adding resources. Examples of crunching include: authorizing overtime, adding additional resources or paying expedited fees to expedite activities on the critical path. Crashing applies only to activities on the critical path whose duration can be shortened by adding resources. Crashing is not practical and may lead to increased risk and/or cost.
  - Fast-tracking : Fast-tracking, a schedule compression technique, moves activities or phases that would normally occur sequentially to at least one in parallel, e.g. starting foundations before architectural drawings of a building are fully completed. Fast follow-up can result in rework and increased risk. It is only applicable when the project duration can be shortened by parallel activities. The optimization process belongs to fast follow-up. This method will not increase the cost, but requires the project manager to have a high level of management.
  - recruit newcomers
    - Note: The addition of new employees may require time spent on training by old employees, or the addition of new employees may cause more problems that require mutual coordination, etc.
⑧ Schedule preparation tool

Outputs for developing a schedule :

① Progress benchmark
② Project schedule
③ progress data
④ Project Calendar
⑤ Project management plan update
⑥ Project file update

8.1.7 Control progress

Overview : is the process of monitoring the status of project activities, updating project progress, and managing changes to the schedule baseline to achieve the plan

Role : To provide a method for discovering deviations from the plan, so that corrective and preventive actions can be taken in time to reduce risks

Method of progress control :

Earned value management: one of the methods of performance measurement
Status Review Meeting: is a pre-determined, regular event to exchange information about the project

content :

(1) Judging the current state of the project progress
(2) exert influence on the factors causing the change to ensure that the change develops in a favorable direction
(3) Determine whether the project schedule has changed
(4) When the change actually occurs, manage it strictly according to the change control process

Shorten activity duration :

(1) Crash work, invest more resources or increase working hours to shorten the duration of critical chain activities
(2) Fast follow-up and parallel construction to shorten the critical path length
(3) Use highly qualified resources or more experienced personnel
(4) Reduce the scope of activities or lower the requirements of activities—with the permission of Party A
(5) Improve methods or technologies to increase production efficiency
(6) Strengthen quality management, find problems in time, reduce rework, and shorten the construction period

Inputs to control progress :

1) Project management plan
2) Project schedule
3) Job performance data
4) Project Calendar
5) Progress data
6) Organizational Process Assets

Tools and techniques for controlling progress :

① Performance review
- Overview: Refers to measuring, comparing, and analyzing schedule performance, such as actual start and finish dates, percent complete, and remaining duration of current work.
- Techniques include:
  - Trend Analysis: Trend analysis examines how project performance has changed over time to determine whether performance is improving or deteriorating. Graphical analysis techniques help to understand current performance and compare it to future target performance expressed as completion date.
  - Critical Path Method: Determine the progress status by comparing the progress of the critical path. Variances on the critical path will have a direct impact on the project's end date. Evaluating the progress of activities on the subcritical path helps identify schedule risks.
  - critical chain method
  - earned value management
② Project management plan
③ Resource optimization technology
- Overview: It is a technique to adjust the schedule model according to the supply and demand of resources.
- include:
  - Resource balance:A technique in which start and end dates are adjusted according to resource constraints in order to strike a balance between resource demand and resource supply. Demand exceeds available resources for a period of time; or resource levels change. Resource balancing is required when a resource is allocated to two or more activities within the same period of time. After resource balancing, resource utilization can be improved, but the critical path may be extended. Certain projects may have a limited number of critical project resources, in which case the resources can be scheduled backwards from the end date of the project, a practice called byInverted schedule method for resource allocation, but it may not be able to formulate the optimal item and schedule。
  - Resource smoothing: Resource smoothing is a technique in which the activities in the schedule model are adjusted so that project resource requirements do not exceed predetermined resource constraints. In contrast to resource leveling, resource smoothing does not alter the critical path and the completion date is not delayed, that is, activities are delayed only in their free float and total float times. Therefore, resource smoothing techniques may not achieve optimization for all resources.
④ Modeling technology
⑤ Advance and lag
- Overview: Leads and lags are an adjustment method used in network analysis to prepare a realistic schedule by adjusting the start times of subsequent activities. Lead is used to start the successor activity earlier when conditions permit; while lag is used to add a natural time without work or resources between the predecessor and successor activities under certain constraints.
⑥ Progress compression
- Overview: Employs schedule compression techniques to bring behind-schedule activities up to plan, and can use fast-track or crash methods for the remaining work
- Compression technology:
  - include:
    - Fast Tracking: This compression technique usually refers to the simultaneous execution of phases or activities that were done sequentially in the original plan. For example, a building begins foundation work before all architectural design drawings are completed. Fast-tracking often results in rework and often increases the risk of the project.
    - Crush work: Crush work is to catch up with the progress. It is a trade-off between cost and schedule to determine how to minimize the time required for the project while increasing the cost as little as possible. Hurrying does not always result in a viable solution and often increases costs.
⑦ Schedule preparation tool

Output to control progress :

① Work performance information
② Progress forecast
③ Change request
④ Project management plan update
⑤ Project file update
⑥ organizational process asset update

8.2 Notes and problems

Note : The project approval requirements and overall milestone requirements specified in the project charter will affect the project schedule management

From what aspects can the project manager scientifically check and control the progress of the project?

(1) Scientifically formulate the progress plan and set appropriate monitoring points.
(2) Maintain proper work records. For example, project progress reports and current progress status need to include time start and completion dates, and the remaining duration of unfinished planned activities.
(3) Performance measurement and reporting. For example, formulate a project progress report with a unified template to check the current completion status.
(4) Deviation analysis, classify the deviations that need attention according to project performance reasons, plan estimation reasons and special event reasons, and take measures respectively.
(5) Develop corresponding progress control means. Such as resource allocation (or resource balancing), crashing, and setting different thresholds for critical path activities and non-critical path activities to determine whether to take corrective actions, etc.

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