However, the investment field is always divided into technical analysis and fundamental analysis, just like the Huashan faction in "Swordsman" is divided into Jianzong and Qizong. The two factions have been arguing for many years. When you practice the sword, the sword is full of energy, and the internal strength is mastered, and the sword is practiced; Jianzong believes that the key point of martial arts is the sword. The moves are exquisite, and the swordsmanship is perfect. Even if the internal strength is mediocre, you can defeat the enemy.
Jianzong Kungfu is easy to develop quickly, and the effect is extremely fast. Everyone has practiced for ten years, and Jianzong is better than Qizong; after twenty years of practice, it is difficult to distinguish between top and bottom; after thirty years of practice, Qizong is better than Jianzong. Technical analysis in futures speculation tries to predict future trends from market data such as price and trading volume, just like Jianzong. Fundamental analysis predicts the company's future earnings from macroeconomic data and micro-financial data to predict prices, just like airbenders. Master Jianzong is represented by Jesse Livermore, and Master Qizong is represented by Warren Buffett. Since there are many retail investors in China's futures market, most of them are eager for success, so most of them are Jianzong, who mainly study technical analysis.
Let me briefly introduce the various detours I have gone through in the pursuit of technical analysis over the years, as well as my understanding of technical analysis.
I have come into contact with various technical analysis theories successively, and I found that many of them are like metaphysics. In order to avoid many detours like me, I only briefly introduce the technical analysis indicators that I think are more useful over the years to futures traders. Due to the different preferences and beliefs of different speculators on different technical analysis theories, I will not specifically criticize a certain theory here. I personally prefer the entanglement theory, but I think the entanglement theory is not always effective, because the most speculative The beauty of trading is that there is no set way to guarantee that you will always make money.
I think that in futures speculation, speculators need to be able to judge the trend. We often say that they follow the trend to make orders. If they can’t even judge the trend, how can they follow the trend?
Of course, our most common method is to draw a trend line. Connecting two lowest points is used as a trend line in the rising process. As long as the price does not fall below the trend line, it is considered that the trend has not reversed;