In early trading today, the A-shares as a whole strengthened slightly. The Shanghai Composite Index hit a new high and approached the highest point of the year. The Science and Technology 50 Index rose by more than 2%, leading the two cities to rise.
On the disk, sectors such as new energy vehicles, gold, lithium mines, and construction were among the top gainers, while sectors such as the Internet, media entertainment, intellectual property, and gaming concepts were the top losers. The net inflow of capital from the north was 6.75 billion yuan.
Gold prices approach all-time highs
Overnight, the price of COMEX gold rose sharply, hitting a peak of $2,063.4 per ounce, a new high in more than a year, and only $25.8 away from the all-time high of $2,089.2 per ounce. The gold sector in the U.S. stock market followed suit. Harmony Gold opened higher and moved higher, up more than 6% in the intraday session. Kinross Gold, Pan American Silver, etc. opened higher and moved higher.
Today, the main domestic gold futures contract gapped and opened higher by more than 1%, reaching a maximum of 453.28 yuan/g, a new high in more than two and a half years, and only one step away from the historical high of 459.56 yuan/g. The main silver contract also opened higher and moved higher, rising by more than 2%, hitting a new high in the past two years.
AH gold stocks also followed suit. The A-share market gold sector index once soared more than 3%, hitting a record high for the fourth consecutive day, and the half-day transaction was close to yesterday's full-day transaction. The daily limit of gold in Sichuan, Xiaocheng Technology, Zhongrun Resources, Mingpai Jewelry, Shandong Gold, etc. are among the top gainers.
In the Hong Kong stock market, my country Gold International has risen for 11 consecutive days, and its stock price has hit a record high. This year, it has risen by more than 100%. Lingbao Gold, Shandong Gold, and my country Silver Group have all strengthened. The top three ETF gainers are all related to gold, and the transactions in the first hour all surpassed yesterday's all-day transactions.
The Fed's interest rate hike is coming to an end, and the economic recession is expected to be strong. The latest "International Economic Prospects Statement" of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates that the economic growth rate of about 90% of developed economies will slow down in 2023. It is estimated that the average growth rate of developed economies in 2023 will only be 1.3%. The annual rate was 1.4%.
As a result, the risk aversion sentiment in the market continued to heat up, and a large number of safe-haven assets such as gold were snapped up. According to data from the International Gold Council, in March, the average daily global gold trading volume was US$183 billion, a surge of 25% from the previous month, the highest level in a year. This is 39% higher than the average daily transaction volume of $132 billion in 2022. The average daily transaction volume of the physical gold market increased by 7% from the previous month, and the transaction volume of exchange gold derivatives and gold ETFs also soared by 57% and 51% respectively.
Institutions have raised their forecasts for gold prices, and Citigroup estimates that gold prices will reach $2,300 an ounce in the short term. CICC believes that the price of gold has entered the upward channel on the right and is expected to reach $2,300/oz-$2,500/oz or even above.
Now that the time for the Fed to end its current cycle of interest rate hikes is approaching, market expectations for rate cuts are heating up, which may start a new cycle of rising gold prices. Judging from historical data, from the end of the interest rate hike to the start of the next round of interest rate cut cycle, most of the time the yield of gold has improved significantly during this process. Therefore, as the price of gold enters a bull market, it will bring significant excess returns to the gold sector.
The wave of achievements is gradually reaching victory
As the mid-to-late period of April and the peak period for publishing annual reports and first-quarter reports, companies with outstanding performance and growth are sought after by the market, the annual performance wave gradually enters a winning situation.
Today, a total of 9 A-share listed companies released their first quarterly reports for 2023, of which 8 were profitable and 1 was at a loss. As of April 14, 31 A-share companies had published their quarterly reports, of which 29 were profitable and 2 were at a loss. The total revenue was 44.076 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38.55%, and the total net profit was 6.435 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.894 billion yuan. %. Judging from the change in net profit, 25 companies had a year-on-year increase in net profit, and 6 companies had a year-on-year decrease in net profit.
Today, 27 companies released a quarterly report forecast, of which 23 companies expected to increase, 2 to turn losses, 1 to decrease, and 1 to lose. As of today, a total of 205 companies have released a quarterly report forecast, and as many as 173 companies have forecast growth, slight growth, loss-making, and continued profit, and the forecast rate is as high as 83%.
The share prices of these pre-happy companies generally outperformed the market. Dayang Biological released its performance forecast for the first quarter of 2023 today, with a net profit of 18 million to 22 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 113.49% to 160.93%. After Dayang Bio opened sharply higher in the morning, it quickly rose by the limit in less than 5 minutes, and the half-day turnover surged nearly 5 times compared with yesterday's full-day turnover.
Regarding the reason for the sharp increase in performance, Dayang Biology stated that the main product of the company, potassium carbonate, had a large increase in production and sales compared with the same period of the previous year, which diluted the unit product cost accordingly.
North Huachuang’s first quarter report is expected to increase by 171.24%-200.30%, and Yinlun’s shares are expected to increase by 70.83%-85.07%, both of which are strong daily limit today. In addition, Yanjing Beer's first quarter report is expected to increase by 7076.76%-7539.77%; Yunding Technology is expected to increase by 805%; Shuangliang Energy Saving is expected to increase by 289%-330%; They also opened sharply higher and strengthened.
In the next stage, we should focus on the clues of the earnings of the first quarter, and look for new directions for growth and diffusion in traditional industries that are expected to exceed expectations and have a better bargaining chip structure. The structural highlights of the first quarter report are in traditional growth segments such as consumption, medicine, and manufacturing that benefit from the revision of domestic demand.