When a listed company releases the financial report of the current quarter, it will not release it on the last day of the quarter but will release it successively in the next quarter. For example, the semi-annual report for 2022 will not be released on June 30, 2022, but on Releases will be completed from July 1st to the end of August. In the process of releasing financial reports one after another, the market will have different reactions to companies with different growth rates. According to the research report of Tianfeng Securities, the types of market preferences will be arranged in this order: [accelerated growth] ≈ [sustained high Growth] ≈ [Deceleration Growth - Low Decrease Rate] > [Dilemma Reversal] > [Deceleration Growth - High Decrease Rate] > [Slow Speed Stability]. This article will follow this research report idea and use quarterly data and data from different industries for in-depth analysis.
Table of contents
1 The rhythm of financial report release
2. Growth rate in the current reporting period - median quarterly increase and decrease
4. Performance growth rate-stock price return correlation analysis
1 The rhythm of financial report release
The annual report is published from January 1st to April 30th each year. The semi-annual report is published every year from July 1st to August 30th. The first quarterly report is released every year from April 1st to April 30th. Three quarterly reports: October 1st - October 31st each year.
Observing the proportion of financial report releases from 2021-09-30 to 2022-09-03 (nearly 4 reporting periods a year), the disclosure rhythm of the market as a whole is as follows:
Due to the overlap between the first quarterly report and the annual report, the April financial report disclosure is very concentrated. It can be seen that the last week of almost every disclosure season is an unusually concentrated financial report disclosure time. Therefore, every year in late April, late August, and late October, it is necessary to pay great attention to the impact of financial report announcements on the market and the fundamental shocks of the industry.
The rhythm of financial report announcements by industry is shown in the figure below:
Details at the bottom of the picture above:
Generally speaking, the financial situation of the companies whose financial reports are announced earlier is better. Judging from the financial report disclosure ratio and timing of different industries, it is possible to speculate on the overall profitability of subsequent industries, thereby providing a reference for the stock industry allocation in the current quarter. The first industries to reach 25% of the annual report announcement rate in 2022 are the electronics, communications, mechanical equipment, household appliances, and basic chemical industries. These five industries all had significant excess returns in the latest quarter.
2. Growth rate in the current reporting period - median quarterly increase and decrease
Temporarily ignoring the change rate of the performance growth rate in the reporting period, using quarterly data only considers the relationship between the performance growth rate in the current reporting period and the median quarterly rise and fall, and divides the growth rate into ultra-high-speed growth (>100) , high-speed growth ([50,00]), growth ([30,50]), low-speed growth ([0,30]) and decline (<0) five groups, calculate the median of the quarterly rise and fall within the group To further judge the relationship between them, and judge the style preference of the market in different periods.
industry group Current reporting period growth rate 15-12-31 16-03-31 16-06-30 16-09-30 16-12-31 17-03-31 17-06-30 17-09-30 17-12-31 18-03-31 18-06-30 18-09-30 18-12-31 19-03-31 19-06-30 19-09-30 19-12-31 20-03-31 20-06-30 20-09-30 20-12-31 21-03-31 21-06-30 21-09-30 21-12-31 22-03-31 Industry hyper growth >100 -18.03 3.51 4.50 0.83 -1.81 -8.57 5.78 -10.98 -4.81 -12.33 -3.49 -6.49 32.67 -5.64 -1.78 5.26 -4.60 17.65 8.69 -2.02 -1.82 9.73 5.95 6.86 -8.31 6.71 Growing rapidly [50,100] -19.49 1.95 4.36 -0.16 -0.81 -9.59 4.98 -10.62 -3.23 -12.93 -5.67 -7.99 28.97 -7.58 -0.60 5.13 -6.94 13.99 7.34 -2.04 -2.54 4.26 1.43 9.58 -11.03 4.13 increase [30,50] -18.83 5.21 2.63 -1.89 -1.84 -9.79 1.39 -8.01 -2.08 -12.79 -7.52 -9.30 27.20 -7.95 0.15 5.53 -6.35 16.50 6.08 -2.59 -2.06 3.12 -0.63 9.56 -14.93 1.17 low growth [0,30] -19.45 1.59 1.92 -1.30 -1.03 -10.72 0.59 -11.28 -2.60 -15.05 -8.10 -9.45 28.78 -9.36 -3.88 3.37 -8.18 13.36 5.46 -4.41 -4.07 0.63 -3.01 8.39 -15.93 0.18 decline <0 -20.78 -1.55 1.00 -0.68 -4.10 -14.69 -0.43 -15.27 -7.65 -20.79 -11.27 -10.93 26.45 -12.85 -7.13 -0.51 -10.12 3.19 2.07 -7.78 -6.68 -1.12 -5.03 5.39 -14.37 -5.31
Conclusion: ①Compared with other groups, the groups with declining and low-speed growth are not favored by the market in almost all time periods, and the market performance of the declining group is significantly worse than other groups; ②In most of the time periods The market’s preferences are super high-speed growth > high-speed growth > growth > low-speed growth > decline, but after the above-mentioned preferences last for a long time, it is easy to shift downwards, and the market turns to favor high-speed growth groups or growth ③ If the growth rate of the ultra-high-speed growth group or the high-speed growth group is much higher than that of other groups in several consecutive reporting periods, the situation in "②" is more likely to occur. This phenomenon can be seen from the valuation To explain from the point of view of disposition.
Calculate the above results by industry:
The same conclusions as before can be drawn from the sub-industry results, and the following conclusions can also be drawn: ① Compared with the results of the whole industry, the sub-industry results are more likely to have a downward shift in preference; ② Compared with other industries, growth industries and strong industries The probability of a downward shift in the industry is greater.
3. The growth rate of the previous reporting period - the change rate of the current growth rate - the median of the quarterly increase and decrease
On the basis of 2, we take into account the change rate of the growth rate and add the information of the previous reporting period, which reflects certain market expectations and information on whether it exceeds expectations. Break down the group into the following table:
| group | Growth rate in the previous reporting period | Change rate of current net profit growth rate | group | Growth rate in the previous reporting period | Change rate of current net profit growth rate |
| Accelerated High Growth 1.1 | >100 | >50 | Deceleration Growth 1.2 | [-50,-25] | |
| Accelerated High Growth 1.2 | [30,50] | Deceleration Growth 1.3 | [-100,-50] | ||
| Accelerated High Growth 1.3 | [10,30] | Deceleration Growth 2.1 | [50,100] | [-25,-5] | |
| Accelerating High Growth 2.1 | [50,100] | >50 | Deceleration Growth 2.2 | [-50,-25] | |
| Accelerated High Growth 2.2 | [30,50] | Deceleration Growth 2.3 | [-100,-50] | ||
| Accelerated High Growth 2.3 | [10,30] | Deceleration Growth 3.1 | [20,50] | [-25,-5] | |
| Accelerate High Growth 3.1 | [30,50] | >50 | Deceleration Growth 3.2 | [-50,-25] | |
| Accelerate High Growth 3.2 | [30,50] | Deceleration Growth 3.3 | [-100,-50] | ||
| Accelerate High Growth 3.3 | [10,30] | Stable and low-speed growth 1.1 | [10,20] | [-5,10] | |
| Stable and high growth 1.1 | >100 | [-5,10] | Stable and low-speed growth 2.1 | [0,10] | [-5,10] |
| Stable and high growth 2.1 | [50,100] | [-5,10] | Dilemma Reversal 1.1 | [-100,-50] | >200 |
| Stable and high growth 3.1 | [30,50] | [-5,10] | Dilemma Reversal 1.2 | [100,200] | |
| Deceleration Growth 1.1 | >100 | [-25,-5] | Dilemma Reversal 2.1 | <-100 | >200 |
| Dilemma Reversal 2.2 | [100,200] |
The result is as follows:
The black arrow in the figure is the moving track of market style preference. We found that the preference stays at a high level for a longer period of time than at a low level, but after a period of time at a high level, it will inevitably shift to a low level, and the downward movement is greater in the stage prone to systemic risks (Move to stable low-speed growth group), after the market is adjusted by the macro policy and the PE of high-level stocks declines, it will return to a high level. In addition, the upward and downward movement of this preference is non-repetitive, that is, if the preference moves upward again, it is easier to stay in a position that has not been stopped before, and the same is true for the decline (except for stable low-speed growth).
4. Performance growth rate-stock price return correlation analysis
The results of correlation analysis can further verify the conclusions in 2 and 3. In addition, we can find that when there is a positive correlation result with a large value and high confidence, it is easier to reverse the correlation (corresponding to the above preference down).
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