Multi-objective evolutionary feature selection for online sales forecasting

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@article{JIMENEZ201775,
title = “Multi-objective evolutionary feature selection for online sales forecasting”,
journal = “Neurocomputing”,
volume = “234”,
pages = “75 - 92”,
year = “2017”,
issn = “0925-2312”,
doi = “https://doi.org/10.1016/j.neucom.2016.12.045“,
url = “http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0925231216315612“,
author = “F. Jim茅nez and G. S谩nchez and J.M. Garc铆a and G. Sciavicco and L. Miralles”,
keywords = “Multi-objective evolutionary algorithms, Feature selection, Random forest, Regression model, Online sales forecasting”
}

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F. Jiménez, G. Sánchez, J.M. García, G. Sciavicco, L. Miralles,
Multi-objective evolutionary feature selection for online sales forecasting,
Neurocomputing,
Volume 234,
2017,
Pages 75-92,
ISSN 0925-2312,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.neucom.2016.12.045.
(http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0925231216315612)
Keywords: Multi-objective evolutionary algorithms; Feature selection; Random forest; Regression model; Online sales forecasting


Summary

historical sales figures
products characteristics and peculiarities
sound financial and business plans

an accurate regression model for online sales forecasting:
a novel feature selection methodology
multi-objective evolutionary algorithm
ENORA (Evolutionary NOn-dominated Radial slots based Algorithm)
a wrapper method
regression model learner — Random Forest

integrates feature selection for regression, model evaluation, and decision making
in order to choose the most satisfactory model
an a posteriori process
a multi-objective context


main content

root mean squared error (RMSE)


ENORA (Evolutionary NOn-dominated Radial slots based Algorithm)

a (μ + λ) survival strategy
an elitist method
μ = λ = N
N is the size of the population,
binary tournament selection,
and self-adaptive crossover and mutation
for multi-objective evolutionary optimization

a rank-crowding-better function

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d = N n 1
h j I — Objective function f j I exist [ 0 , 1 ] After normalization
n — number of objective functions

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NSGA-II (Non-dominated Sorted Genetic Algorithm)

a (μ + λ) strategy
a binary tournament selection
a rank-crowding better function


Difference between ENORA and NSGA-II

how the calculation of the ranking of the individuals in the population is performed

  • ENORA:the non-domination level of the individual in its slot
  • NSGA-II:the non-domination level of the individual in the whole population

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In the binary tournament, can the dominant individual win? Can
individual C be better than B to improve diversity


Feature selection

算法:
- supervised
- unsupervised
- semi-supervised

Depends on whether the training set is labeled

模型:
- filter — statistical measures
- wrapper — a search problem
- embedded — model-dependent

算法步骤:
- subset generation — greedy hill-climbing approach, sequential forward selection, sequential backward elimination, bi-directional selection, branch and bound, beam search, Las Vegas algorithms, evolutionary algorithms, and particle swarm optimization algorithms.
- subset evaluation — multivariate filter methods (the distance, the uncertainty, the dependence, and the consistency) + wrapper methods (the accuracy)
- stopping criterion
- result validation


Many goals

  • accuracy
  • number of features
  • number of instances
  • the cardinality and granularity of the subset selection
  • the cross-validation accuracy
  • the false positive rate
  • the false negative rate
  • the sensitivity
  • the specificity
  • measures of consistency, dependency, distance and information
  • error identification rate
  • undetected identification rate

algorithm

Simultaneous optimization of feature representation and crossover and mutation operators used

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optimize the target:

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the root mean squared error
the cardinality of the subset

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a Bernoulli random variable

maintaining diversity in the population and sustaining the convergence capacity of the evolutionary algorithm


test

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data set — the Kaggle community — predictive modeling competitions — the Online
Product Sales competition

population size equal to 1000 and for 100 generations
100,000 evaluations
10-folds cross-validation

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