The secret of survivor's deviation

Quotation: Defence of the survivor

There will also be many parties or relatives and friends who endorse these "masters" and "magic drugs" who have never been on the front line.

My grandfather Qiunou, who had a high fever, recovered after drinking the X pulp that the master instructed.
My third nephew’s daughter has already been infected, and she escaped after drinking "XX tea".
…………

These people who defended the master were not necessarily all navy soldiers. They were not liars, or even a gentle and kind-hearted person . They might sincerely think that the master saved their lives. The "magic medicine" really made many people escape this. Epidemic.

It's just that they don't know that these data do not represent the truth. Behind these seemingly real cases is a statistical devil playing magic. The name of this devil is " survivor deviation ".

It is this devil who has been escorting the liar and escorting him.

It is the survival code of many "masters" .

The more serious you are, the further away from the truth

Survivor's deviation is also called "survivor's fallacy", which refutes a common logical fallacy, that is, only seeing the results after some sort of screening, ignoring key information .

This involves a branch of mathematics and a concept in statistics: the more carefully you observe the truth in front of you, the further away you will be from the truth .

Defenders of scammers would certainly not think so, these cases happened by their side, it is impossible to deceive people.

They only saw some of the survivors, but they didn't realize that these survivors were just a few pieces of data .

Take the Beijing subway as an example. During the morning rush hour and evening rush hour, many people will experience the massive population of the city in the sardine canned subway with the front chest and back attached. Every day, many people will think that the ticket will make the subway company make a lot of money.

Each line of the subway requires tens of billions of investment for development alone, and other labor, daily operation and maintenance fees, and bank loan costs are far from being able to recoup the cost through the fare of passenger flow. Moreover, the subway is a national livelihood project, which is equivalent to a public welfare project, and the fare cannot be too high. So the subway has become the norm.

The reason why office workers think that the subway is always overcrowded is because they take the subway every time when the passenger flow is the highest, such as the morning and evening rush hours. However, the subway passenger flow is not stable, and there are many "empty cars" in many cases, but at that time most people were at work and didn't know it.

The more carefully you observe and the more you experience, the more biased the results will actually be.

In daily life, the most obvious examples are "My relatives have taken a certain remedy" or "A friend of mine went to find this old Chinese doctor" and so on. These data that you think are very accurate are all biased data and cannot be obtained. Come to a rational conclusion .

Statistics joke: classmates who did not come raise their hands

The statistical concept of "lucky person's deviation" originally came from during World War II.

During World War II, in order to strengthen the protection of fighters, the British and American military investigated the distribution of bullet marks on surviving aircraft after the battle, and decided to strengthen where there are many bullet marks. However, the statistician Ward argued against the crowd and pointed out that more attention should be paid to the parts with fewer bullet marks, because fighters that have been hit hard in these parts have no chance to return, and this part of the data is ignored . Facts have proved that Ward is correct.

In many cases, your statistical data has nothing to do with the results you want to investigate, or even the exact opposite of the results you want to investigate .

Here are a few more examples:

• Example 1: A reporter interviewed the ticket purchase situation in the waiting hall of the Spring Festival Transport, and concluded that although the Spring Festival Transport ticket is not easy to buy, everyone has bought the ticket.
• Example 2: The merchants selling parachutes on Taobao have no negative reviews.
• Example 3: There is a teacher in the university who has the highest attendance rate in the school. Her trick is to say: "Students who did not come raise their hands" every time they roll their names.

Students who did not come to class would not raise their hands, and those who wanted to give a bad review of the parachute would never have the opportunity to open Taobao. This also illustrates the statistical nature of the "lucky person's bias": its statistical results are filtered results, not random, and therefore not universal , so don't trust the words of direct sellers.

So, if you really think that "XX drink" can really replenish people's brains, then your IQ will stay in the age when you just walked upright.

Silent big data and "the dead do not speak"

Your friend made a special trip to see you in your city. Three days later, you drive 20 kilometers to take him to the airport.

You beckoned to him and said, "Brother, have a good journey and be safe."

This sentence sounds okay, but in fact, he should say this sentence to you more than you say to him .

According to statistics on the death toll of different vehicles, the number of deaths per billion kilometers driven by cars is 3.1, 2.6 by water, 0.6 by railway, 0.4 by bus, and only 0.05 by airplane.

The friend you sent on the plane is actually safer than you who are about to drive home!

So, why do we have the impression of a high rate of plane crashes and unsafe conditions?

Because every data of the plane crash is recorded . In 2014, the Malaysia Airlines MH370 crashed, and the overwhelming news reports made many people afraid to take the plane again, causing panic for a while. Four years later, news about sporadic fragments of Malaysia Airlines MH370 is still the focus of attention of netizens.

There are many car accidents, but reports are very rare. The dead cannot speak, and big data is silent. The media is not interested in reporting on common things.

When you or your loved ones get sick, do people often show up at the right time and seriously recommend health care products or give you some home remedies? After the recommendation, I will tell you categorically that this is absolutely good, absolutely useful, and everyone in my family is cured in this way.

He didn't know that many people didn't get any improvement after eating these "sugar water", some people even delayed the regular treatment time because of this, and finally regretted it hopelessly.

Many scams have been reported because "death statistics" are talking.

Expectations are the accomplices of "survivor bias"

I always hear about some magical remedies, and what genius doctors are.

But it is rare to hear anyone say that a certain hospital expert was the reincarnation of Hua Tuo.

Why is the "survivor bias" more obvious at this point?

The reason is that most people have high expectations of hospitals , and they rightly believe that hospitals can cure our disease. If we cure the disease under the diagnosis of a regular doctor, few people will publicize this hospital. On the contrary, if this hospital does not achieve the results we expect, we will be dissatisfied and disappointed.

In contrast, for these occasional treatment channels, users have lower expectations . With the mentality of trying out folk remedies, genius doctors, etc., even if there is no effect, it will not spread everywhere. If it works, even out of individual psychological comfort, we will find it useful. If it happens to make you heal, then you are likely to publicize it with great fanfare.

Therefore, even if 1 out of 100 people is cured by this remedy, this person will become a "loyal fan" of the remedy and enthusiastically promote it , which is a level that is difficult for any Internet product to reach.

There are also some other psychological factors involved here. Everyone hopes to enhance their sense of value in front of others, which is reflected in the ability to provide others with unique value information , and the home remedy just has the uniqueness of value.

Survivor deviation formula

With a little rational thinking, we can conclude a survivor deviation formula.

This formula is very simple, f(x) represents the normal probability of the event, and x is the valid data related to the event .

• In many cases, the data of x is 9, and it is secretly changed to 0 by the liar, and the probability of 10% is boasted as 100%;
• Sometimes, the data of x is 99, and it is replaced by 0 in the "master", and the probability of 1% is touted as 100%.

All scammers will reinforce some special cases, the goal is to make people ignore those "silent valid data" . In the statistics of survivor deviation, people always pay attention to the characteristics of things they can see, but ignore the characteristics of things that cannot be seen. Or it may ignore the characteristics of things that cannot survive, so you will not see the actual cause of the result, and draw various wrong conclusions.

The degree of rationality of each person's brain is different, but in many things, because some people artificially amplify the danger-avoidance system, it is easy to temporarily lose rationality, being led by the nose like a cow, so that it is completely imperceptible. We are falling into the trap of "survivor deviation".

Take advantage of survivor bias: you can also be a great god

The scammers in the market mostly use the theory of survivor bias.

There is an ancient story. A master claimed to be able to change the gender of the child in the belly of a pregnant woman. If the child is born, the fee will not be refunded. If the child is born, the fee will be refunded in full. , Business is particularly good, and many people who long for a son are grateful to him.

Using the same principle, you can also be a great god .

Taking gambling as an example, the method is also very simple.

• In the first round of gambling, you divide the results of winning and losing into 50 text messages and send them to 100 people. When the game is over, there will be 50 people who have got the correct "prophecy".
• In the second round of gambling, 25 more balls will be sent to each of the 50 "lucky ones" in the previous round, and 25 people will get the correct answer.
• By analogy, after multiple rounds, "survivors" are born.

If it happens that the survivor does not know the theory of "survivor deviation", then congratulations, he will be willing to treat you as a "great god" .

This is exactly the phenomenon of survivors. The world's focus is always on the accidental winners, but ignoring losers who are not selected by tens of thousands of times.

This is a method often used by crooks. Regardless of the base number, the probability is to be a hooligan . We always hear how much the stock god makes, but we don't know how much the old king who lives next door loses. This is because the existence of "survivor bias" allows us to only see the success of others, and more people who fail, we choose to ignore it .

How to avoid survivor deviation?

Survivor deviation, on the surface, belongs to the category of mathematical statistics and logic, but it also involves human nature in many cases.

1. First of all, you must be aware of the existence of "silent evidence" before you have the opportunity to gain a more comprehensive understanding

Friends who are accustomed to Moments and Douyin are always prone to think: buying brand-name bags, eating luxury meals, and traveling abroad are the norm in China. However, the rise of Pinduoduo has made "silent evidence" exert its strength: it turns out that people who buy cheap products and mobilize bargaining for a few cents are the most populous group in China.

Hearing is not necessarily true, and seeing is not necessarily true . It is necessary to break the inertial thinking, avoid the obvious evidence, and see the invisible evidence behind it.

2. Let the dead speak

It ends with a story told by Cicero, a Roman thinker more than 2,000 years ago: Someone showed a picture to an atheist. It showed a group of people praying and worshipping God and told him that these people were involved in the subsequent shipwreck accident. All survived. The atheist asked indifferently: I want to see where are the portraits of those who drowned after praying?

There are many swindlers in history. If these people can really come back to speak, there will be more than half of the masters in this world.

3. Learn mathematics well, learn statistics well

For example, the fund industry will announce that in the past 10 years, the overall return rate of the fund industry has exceeded 100%. Do you think that buying funds will definitely make a profit? In fact, if you understand mathematics, you can find that there is a problem: the statistics of the fund industry are all the funds that are alive in the market now, and those who die without making money are not counted. If the dead ones are also taken into account, the overall rate of return of the fund is actually quite average .

Although the calculation process is boring for many people, it is an exercise in rational thinking. Mathematics weaves our logic more closely, enabling us to see the essence behind complex phenomena. At the same time, removing idolatry, abandoning mystery, and controlling human greed will effectively prevent being deceived by survivors .

Conclusion: Not everyone is a survivor

Many "magic medicines" and health care products use the principle of "survivor partiality", and the greater the sales, the more deceived .

• Understand the deviation of survivors, you will notice the silent expression of " silent spiral " in the noise of the magic medicine ;
• Understand the survivor's deviation, you will find the hidden truth and objective answers in the turmoil of liars;
• Understanding the survivor's deviation, you will not only be able to see the brilliance of the big brothers, but also the entrepreneurs who are "withered".

Stop the superstition of the survivors, the propaganda you hear, there are countless crying of the same kind behind.

Don't believe in those magical recipes anymore, you can easily be deceived by survivors' deviations.

If you think that the answers of the survivors will also belong to you, this will be the greatest misfortune of your life.