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Problem C: Confirming the Buzz about Hornets…
In September 2019, the nest of the big hornet (also known as the Asian hornet) was discovered on Vancouver Island in British Columbia, Canada. Although the nest was quickly destroyed, the news spread quickly throughout the area. Since then, there have been several reports of suspected pests in neighboring Washington state, but many of them have been false positives.
Please refer to Figure 1 below for specific maps of detection points, bumblebee monitoring points and public sighting sites.
Trap Detection
Visual Detection
Positive ID
Unprocessed
Negative ID
Unverified
Hornet, the world's largest wasp, will prey on European honeybees. Only a small amount of hornet can destroy European honeybee colonies in a short time.
The life cycle of a bumblebee is similar to that of many other wasps: in the spring, the fertilized queen will find a new place as a nest; in the fall, the queen will leave the soil in the nest for the winter, repeating the cycle. Among them, the queen bee can build nests within a range of 30 kilometers.
More detailed information about the Hornet near the question.
Because the emergence of bumblebees will affect the local bee colony, Washington State has established a helpline and website for people to report these possible abnormalities about bumblebees at any time. Based on the public's sighting reports, the state must decide how to allocate limited resources for follow-up investigations. Because many insects reported by the public and witnessed are other kinds of insects, not bumblebees.
Therefore, the main focus of this question is "How should we analyze the information provided by the public?" and "Given the limited resources of government agencies, what strategy should we use to prioritize public reports for the next investigation?"
The article should contain and address the following issues:
- Explain and analyze whether the spread of bumblebees can be predicted? How accurate is it?
- Most hornet sightings are false positives. Therefore, use the provided data and images to build a model to predict the possibility of misclassification.
- Use your classification model to discuss how to prioritize the investigation of the most likely bumblebee sighting report?
- What kind of new sightings will your model need to be updated? And how often do you update?
- Using your model, how will it prove that the Hornet has been completely eradicated in Washington State?