6 industries not to touch in 2020
Sanfeng soft Zhang Sanfeng
6 industries you try not to touch in 2020
Social e-commerce
In 2020, affected by the epidemic at the beginning of the year, the real economy will suffer an unprecedented impact, and the online economy will become a new economic growth point and consumption trend. Since the second half of 2019, due to the slowdown in public domain traffic growth, social e-commerce based on private domain traffic has gradually emerged, and six social e-commerce companies have been born, with a total market value of 33.992 billion yuan, and three "universal" The total valuation of Beast and Six Chollima is RMB 48.543 billion. But despite this, on July 15, the well-known domestic e-commerce think tank NetEconomics and Social E-commerce Research Center released the "2019 China Social E-commerce Market Data Report" showing that the size of my country's social e-commerce market in 2019 was 2,060.55 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase 71.71%. The growth rate of the social e-commerce market has shown a downward trend for three consecutive years, with a decline of 8.69 percentage points in 2017, 13.97 percentage points in 2018, and 3.82 percentage points in 2019. The social dividend was divided.
According to the monitoring of the Net Economics Agency, the main players in the social e-commerce market are divided into five categories: Pinduoduo, JD.com, Jingxi, Suning, etc. as the representative of the purchase type, with love inventory, zebra members, shellfish The distribution type represented by stores, Fenxiang, etc., the community type represented by Xiaohongshu Mall, Baby Tree, Koala Selection, Rice Cake Mom, etc., shopping guides represented by Rebate, What is Worth Buy, Yitao.com, etc. Type, represented by Youzan, Weimeng, and Diandianke.
Mo Daiqing, director of the online retail department and senior analyst of the E-commerce Research Center of the Net Economics, said that the collapse of Taoji Ji has caused alarm in the industry and also indicates that the industry has entered a reshuffle period. Social e-commerce must have prices under the premise of focusing on quality. Advantages, it is more necessary to find a suitable development model to enhance the "hematopoietic ability." In this fierce competition, small and medium social e-commerce companies are naturally unsustainable, and the "rule of the jungle" leads to the survival of the fittest.
One of the main reasons for the decline in the dividends of the social e-commerce market is that the user scale is nearly saturated. According to the large e-commerce database of the "Dianshubao" of the Net Economics, the number of social e-commerce users in my country in 2019 was 713 million, compared with 608 million in 2018, a year-on-year increase of 17.26%. Affected by entrepreneurship, investment, and giants, the user scale of social e-commerce has grown rapidly in the past few years. From 2016 to 2018, the user scale has expanded from 418 million to 608 million, rising to 28.54%. The scale of industry users continued to grow in 2019, but the growth rate dropped.
The "Report" also believes that capital's interest in social e-commerce is cooling. Data show that in 2019, my country's social e-commerce financing totaled 1.64 billion yuan, down 81.84% from 9.03 billion yuan in 2018. The amount of social e-commerce financing increased rapidly from 2014 to 2016, from an initial 143 million yuan to 1.91 billion yuan. In 2017, it fell rapidly, and the financing amount was only 880 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 53.93%. It climbed rapidly in 2018, with a year-on-year increase of 926.13%.
However, in this field, three “unicorns” and six “Maximum horses” have emerged in 2019. In 2019, there are three social e-commerce “unicorns”, namely Litchi, Weidian and Jingling Group, with respective valuations It is US$2 billion, US$1.5 billion, and US$1 billion, with a total valuation of US$4.5 billion. At the same time, there will be six social e-commerce "Chorima" in 2019, namely Wanse City, Love Inventory, Shell Store, KK Live, After You Have a Car, and Birthday Butler. The valuations are respectively 5.2 billion yuan, 3.575 billion yuan, and 3 billion yuan. Yuan, 2.275 billion yuan, 2 billion yuan, 1 billion yuan, with a total valuation of 17.05 billion yuan.
In addition, the large e-commerce database of the Net Economics "Dianshubao" shows that as of the end of December 2019, the market capitalizations of the six social e-commerce listed companies including Yunji, Weimob, Youzan, Ruhan, Mogujie, and What is Worth-Buy were 68.87. Billion yuan, 6.84 billion yuan, 6.84 billion yuan, 4.039 billion yuan, 1.699 billion yuan, 7.681 billion yuan, with a total market value of 33.992 billion yuan.
However, it is undeniable that the problems caused by the "barbaric growth" of social e-commerce should not be underestimated. In 2019, the hot spots in this field were complained mainly on product quality issues, attracting people, pyramid schemes, false propaganda, difficulty in refunding overlord clauses and unpaid funds. There are eight aspects such as timely return, wrong goods, poor after-sales service, and long-lasting delivery. Social e-commerce companies that involve more complaints include Zebra members, Yunji WeChat Store, Shell Store, Darling Home, Daren Store, Love Inventory, Haoyiku, Onion Overseas Warehouse, Good Goods Full Warehouse, Chu Chu Tweet, Good Things, Global Moments, Secret Mall, Mai Baoyun Store, Flower Diary, etc.
Fresh food e-commerce
More than 4,000 fresh food e-commerce companies, only 1% are profitable
Fresh product e-commerce, referred to as fresh e-commerce, refers to the use of e-commerce to directly sell fresh products on the Internet, such as fresh fruits, vegetables, and fresh meat. Fresh food e-commerce develops along with the general development trend of e-commerce. 2012 is regarded as the first year of the development of fresh food e-commerce. In 2019, the transaction size of China's fresh food e-commerce market was approximately 162 billion yuan, maintaining a steady growth of 29.2%.
On July 23, Daily Youxian announced the completion of a new round of financing of US$495 million. This financing is also the largest financing in the fresh food industry. This time, the huge amount of financing has pushed the daily freshness to the forefront.
In November 2014, Daily Youxian quickly circled and squeezed into the fresh food e-commerce market with a novel "front warehouse" model, becoming an industry unicorn at the fastest speed. Affected by the epidemic this year, consumer demand for fresh produce has increased significantly.
An epidemic has turned users from guided passive consumption to active consumption. Fresh food e-commerce seems to have become the biggest beneficiary, but it may also pave the way for the online fresh food industry crisis. Everyday Youxian gets financing again, and the effect of fresh food e-commerce burning money continues.
Profitable growth, gross profit is too low
The "2020 China Mobile Internet "War Epidemic" Special Report" released by QuestMobile shows that the overall DAU of China's fresh food e-commerce has never been less than 8 million, and it exceeded 10 million during the Spring Festival. At the same time, the two important indicators of new users and customer unit prices have also been lifted.
According to data from iiMedia Consulting, during the two weeks from January 22 to February 6 this year, the number of new domestic mainstream fresh food e-commerce platforms exceeded 10,000 daily.
However, as early as the end of last year, Daily Youxian announced that it had achieved full profitability. Daily Fresh has established a "Urban Sorting Center + Community Distribution Center" cold chain logistics system in major cities to provide users with a "2-hour door-to-door" cold chain distribution service for global fresh products. Currently, Daily Youxian has served tens of millions of families in 16 cities.
Competition in the industry is big and it is not easy to get out of the circle
The fresh food market looks "bright and beautiful", and only one knows the "suffering" behind it. Taobao, JD, Suning, Amazon, SF and other "big guys" have successively tested the fresh water e-commerce business. This has increased competition in the industry, and then many new blood vessels have joined the fresh food e-commerce queue.
In 2017, fresh food e-commerce ushered in a round of "blowout", and in these fresh market roads, some people "retired halfway", and some people "hardened." Before the epidemic, the number of fresh food e-commerce companies had been shut down, most of which were due to a broken capital chain. Affected by the epidemic in early 2020, the "long-silent" fresh food e-commerce market has become extremely active. The competition in the industry does not just stop on the goods, but shifts to the quality of operation and the improvement of user experience.
e-cigarette
On the morning of July 30th, in accordance with the requirements for special inspections of the e-cigarette market nationwide, the Market Supervision Bureau of Huiji District of Zhengzhou City and the Beicheng Sub-bureau of Zhengzhou Tobacco Monopoly Bureau jointly launched an e-cigarette market rectification action, and at the same time cooperated with multiple liquor manufacturers , To carry out anti-counterfeiting operations in liquor.
A total of 40 law enforcement officers were dispatched in this operation, divided into four groups, focusing on inspections of areas around primary and secondary schools in the jurisdiction, vending machines, large supermarkets, cigarette hotels, etc., to strictly investigate whether there are electronic cigarettes sold to minors Behavior, whether there are false and illegal advertisements, and the sale of fake and inferior tobacco and alcohol products.
A total of more than 100 merchants in the vicinity of Huiji Wanda and Changxing Road Street were investigated in the operation, 6 categories and 30 types of commodities were inspected, and 1 vending machine illegally selling electronic cigarettes and 1 unlicensed merchant were investigated on the spot.
According to reports, the operation is the launching ceremony of a joint law enforcement operation in Huiji District. Next, Huiji District will carry out a continuous and rigorous investigation. One is to organically combine legal publicity and strict law enforcement, to increase the publicity of action results and typical cases, and strive to achieve 100% publicity coverage; the second is to target specific market entities. Administrative interviews, careful analysis of complaints and reporting clues, establishment of a dynamic investigation ledger, and coverage of investigations in key areas to reach 100%; third, for illegal cases, one case is discovered and one is strictly investigated, and a linkage mechanism for tobacco, market supervision, manufacturers, and public security agencies is established. , To form a combined force of supervision, protect the physical and mental health of minors, and maintain a civilized and honest operation of the socialist market operation order; fourth, rely on Internet monitoring methods to comprehensively clean up Internet e-cigarette sales and comprehensively clean up Internet illegal e-cigarette advertisements. Promote the formation of a three-in-one containment pattern of "strike, prevent, and block" to form a system and give full play to its actual effects, to help the smooth progress of the comprehensive management of the tobacco market, to maintain strict law enforcement and high pressure, and to prevent the resurgence of illegal business activities.
Sure enough, there is no shortage of brave people in a profitable industry!
Long-term rental apartment
Recently, the Ministry of Commerce announced the operation of my country's consumer market in the first half of 2020. From January to June this year, the total retail sales of consumer goods was 17.23 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.4%. Among them, the decline continued to narrow from March to June. In particular, service consumption gradually recovered and online consumption increased rapidly.
As an important part of the people's livelihood, the residential consumer market has basically maintained the same trend in the first half of the year with the operation of the social consumer goods market. After the "U" shape bottomed out in January and February, it has gradually recovered for 4 consecutive months.
In the process of accelerating the market recovery, long-term rental agencies such as Ziru have given full play to their service advantages, made full use of online technology, and coordinated with the launch of the "Haiyan Plan", "100 million yuan subsidy" and other measures to balance supply and demand, effectively shortening the transaction cycle and promoting the market Pick up. Experts said that it is expected that the rental demand will be further released in the second half of the year, and the overall market will develop for the better.
Offline education industry
The new crown epidemic in 2020 has caused tremendous changes in the entire education industry. The offline is fully halted, and online places are filled in time. Online education has entered an explosive growth stage and is developing towards the third and fourth-line sinking market.
In February of this year, Blackboard Insight went to education and training institutions in lower-tier cities, interviewed senior front-line education practitioners, and learned some insights and experiences under the epidemic in small cities. Nearly half a year has passed, most offline institutions in provinces and cities have resumed classes, seemingly back on track. But what is the real situation? Only those who have experienced the hardship know best.
In the besieged city of education, the people in the city wanted to go out but continued to persevere. The people outside the city wanted to come in with enthusiasm, but were forced to give up. Recently, they told Blackboard Insight about two completely different stories about education and training in low-tier cities.
"Offline agencies, I won't open them again"
Car industry
As the auto market continues to grow, its role in the pillar of the national economy continues to increase. Automobile tax revenue accounted for the proportion of national tax revenue, the number of employees accounted for the number of employees in the country, and automobile sales accounted for more than 10% of the country's total retail sales.
One is that personalized customization has become a future development trend. At present, a new round of technological revolution and industrial transformation is becoming more and more intense. The ecology and competition pattern of the automobile industry is facing reconstruction, product forms and production methods are undergoing profound changes, automobile products are accelerating their development in the direction of low-carbon, electric and intelligent, and automobiles are transforming from pure transportation It is a large-scale mobile intelligent terminal and energy storage unit. Automobile production has moved from mass production in the past to fully collaborative intelligent manufacturing.
The second is the accelerated emergence of new demands and business models. The Internet and automobiles are deeply integrated, and the proportion of aging and new generation users continues to increase. Consumer needs and diversified characteristics have become increasingly obvious. Intelligent transportation, shared travel, and personalized services have become important directions.
Third, the industrial structure and ecosystem are facing reconstruction. New technology companies have entered the industry in large numbers, traditional companies and the automotive industry have competed and developed, product chains and innovation chains have changed, and the global industrial ecology is being reconstructed.
Many countries have adjusted their development strategies, accelerated their industrial layout in the new energy and intelligent networked industries, and seized a new round of commanding heights. Some countries have formulated a timetable to stop the production and sales of traditional energy vehicles. Currently, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has also launched relevant research and will Work with relevant departments to formulate a timetable for our country. These measures will surely promote profound changes in the environment and driving force for the development of my country's automobile industry.
problem
After years of hard work, my country’s automobile industry has formed a relatively complete industrial system. The technological level in some fields is not far behind that of foreign countries. It has the foundation and conditions for competing with foreign developed countries on the same stage, but the same starting point does not mean Synchronization reached the end. In the face of a new round of new trends, we must start from solving development bottlenecks and shortcomings, take proactive actions, and take the initiative. In my opinion, at least the following issues need to be focused on.
One is the problem of fragmentation, smallness and chaos in the industry. There are a large number of enterprises and the development level of the industry is uneven. Dispersion, smallness, and chaos have always been problems in our automobile industry. Many companies do not master the core technology but blindly shop. In recent years, the state has taken some measures, but they have not achieved good results. In the face of the further expansion of the auto industry, the competition in the industry will inevitably become more intense, and how to deal with it is a major issue we must face. Although significant progress has been made in the development of the new energy automobile industry in recent years, it is now showing signs of structural surplus, which must be paid close attention to by the industry and be carefully guarded against.
The second is the problem of lagging innovation capabilities. The innovation capability of my country's auto companies has made great progress, but there is still a big gap compared with the international advanced level, and many core technologies are still restricted by others. High-efficiency internal combustion engines and advanced transmissions have always been the shortcomings of the entire industry. In terms of new energy vehicles, there is still a lack of positive research and development of pure electric platforms. The power battery has not yet made a revolutionary breakthrough. The research and development of key components of advanced sensors has just started. Quantification and intelligence still need to be further improved. We still have some system and mechanism obstacles. If we do not make a substantial breakthrough, we may miss the strategic opportunity period again.
The third is energy conservation and emission reduction. As of the end of 2016, my country's car ownership was close to 200 million, and the huge car ownership has brought severe resource, energy and environmental pressures. my country’s passenger car energy consumption in 2016 still lags behind the international level.
China promises to the international community that carbon emissions will reach its peak in 2030 and that the proportion of primary energy will reach 20%. According to the current development speed of the automobile industry, it is still very difficult for us to reach the standard, and it still requires hard work from the entire automobile industry.
The fourth is the issue of strategic transformation. From now to 2025, it should be the most drastic changes in the automotive industry. Traditional automotive energy saving and emission reduction requirements are getting higher and higher, and the development of new energy vehicles is accelerating, but the technical requirements are getting higher and higher. Intelligent networked vehicles will affect the entire industry. Have a huge impact. Enterprises must have a deep understanding of this trend, timely adjust their strategies, and clarify development plans. However, judging from the current situation, due to various reasons, domestic enterprises have not fully realized their understanding, and some state-owned enterprises still lack clear development ideas and long-term strategic planning. In this regard, we must learn the lessons of Kodak. Kodak used to be the world's largest film company and invented the world's first digital camera, but due to a strategic decision error, he pushed himself to the brink of bankruptcy. my country is in a critical period. If you don’t advance, you will retreat. The whole industry must join hands and seize opportunities to promote my country’s transformation from an automobile power to an automobile power. The general requirement is to adhere to the market-led innovation drive in accordance with the strategic deployment of the Party Central Committee and the State Council. Focus on breakthroughs and coordinated development, strengthen overall planning, improve the innovation system, optimize the development environment, deepen open cooperation, and promote the sustainable and healthy development of the automotive industry.