(The picture comes from the Internet)
1
UNI
Since 11/4 when UNI was included in the portfolio, I have written several sharing articles:
11/7 "Uniswap (UNI) Valuation Analysis and Fixed Investment Plan" [link]
11/13 "Three Key Choices for Uniswap Success" [link]
11/14 "What did Uniswap talk about at the first community call" [link]
Everyone saw the situation later. It was a coincidence on the 4th. The growth of UNI is really good. It is clear from the market performance. The author (public account: Liu Jiaolian) is even worried that it is too fast. This is not to say that the previously formulated holding plan is too conservative, but that the market’s FOMO mentality is a bit too strong. For long-term investment, this is not a good thing. On the one hand, the irrationality of the market will cause the excessive increase in the cost of holdings, and the high cost is the poison of investment income. On the other hand, irrational short-term and speculative nature will distort the growth curve of the actual value of the project, leading to violent peak-to-valley transitions, which easily arouses people's mentality of gains and losses, which is not conducive to the stability and perseverance of long-term holders.
Here is an important correction to the 11/7 article. In the article about UNI valuation, I systematically summarized the logic of the author’s valuation of UNI before the 4th scheduled investment. The second of the two sets of logic, the logic of P/E valuation, when calculating the expected income after fee switch, the author made a mistake in the ratio of cost splitting. The uniswap contract code states that each swap fee is charged at 0.3%, which is Qiansan. If you do a fee switch, then 1/6 of the Qiansan, which is 0.05%, will be split. come out. Note that the handling fee for the split is 1/6 of the total handling fee, which is one thousand and one-half of the total transaction amount. The original text mistakenly multiplied the total handling fee by one thousand and one-half, instead of 1/6, when calculating in excel. Apologies to everyone. This seriously underestimates the cost of the split:
Original: The annualized handling fee is 365 million US dollars. After fee switch, it will correspond to the income of 456,000 US dollars during the period (3 months)
Modification: The annualized handling fee is US$365 million. After fee switch, it will correspond to the period income of US$15.249 million (3 months)
In this way, even if you don't give the original 500 times such an exaggerated PE, and reduce it by 10 times, which is reduced to 50 times the PE (equivalent to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange), the valuation of UNI is 4.9-7.2 US dollars.
If it drops further, down to 24 times PE (equivalent to Nasdaq), then the corresponding valuation of UNI is $2.36-3.47.
Although it is not clear how the fee switch will happen, the market is like this, and the expected valuation will be reflected in today's price. As Satoshi Nakamoto pointed out in a forum post on February 21, 2010:
"The reasonable market price of something that is expected to increase in value already reflects the present value of the expected future growth. In your brain, you make probability estimates and measure its winning percentage to maintain growth."
If Satoshi Nakamoto speculates coins, he will be a master of speculation, right? :)
I heard that many crypto funds in Europe and the United States are buying the bottom of DeFi. Does the performance of UNI since the 11/4 show that they have also begun to establish similar valuation logic?
2
Grayscale
In the recent climb of Bitcoin from 10,000 to 16,000, one name is known by Chinese crypto players, and it is Grayscale. In the case of Bitcoin ETF's unsuccessful attempts to approve the SEC for many years, Grayscale established a trust fund and opened up the channel for institutional capital (hedge funds, family funds, pension funds, etc.) The author wrote an article to introduce it before:
11/11 "What is the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust that always buys, buys and buys these days" [link]
In this article, the author mentioned the "market making" problem of gbtc. After reading the article, a friend pointed out that Grayscale would not make a market and let the market decide the price by itself. Regarding this point, the author has not yet been able to confirm that Grayscale has indeed acknowledged or promised in writing that it will never make a gbtc market. Friends who have seen the official written materials of Grayscale about this information are welcome to provide clues (WeChat: evanipv6), thank you.
However, Amber Group published an article on 6/11 this year to evaluate the risks of gbtc, which is quite interesting. This article pointed out that the current market pursuit of gbtc is due to the fact that gbtc has a higher positive premium (of course, the reason for this positive premium may be related to the lack of direct channels for traditional funds to purchase spot goods). As the lock-up period (6 months) approaches, and buyers cannot redeem the spot, they can only sell gbtc in the secondary market, which will cause selling pressure and compress the premium. As the lock-up period ends, more and more gbtc will enter circulation, and short sellers can borrow coins to go short. And, if the ETF is approved, the funds will go to buy the lower-cost ETF directly, which will cause the gray-scale gbtc to have a greater risk.
Here is a website to check the tracking curve of Grayscale's holdings of BTC: https://pro.bybt.com/futures/GrayscalePosition
3
1BTC
Too many Xiaobai who went to the coin circle to pan for gold, came up to buy all kinds of air coins and altcoins, and all of them lost money soon. I did it again and again for a year or two, and never bought Bitcoin at all. Courage and lack of strategy are common reasons for retail investors' losses. There is another reason, that is, lack of discipline. For retail investors, lack of discipline can also be called lack of self-discipline, because the characteristic of retail investors is that they are responsible for themselves. Strategy solves the problem of "knowledge", and discipline solves the problem of "action". Knowing and doing are united, and there is no disadvantage.
As stated in the article 11/7, the author has always believed that only if a currency player has a stable possession of 1 BTC can he be eligible to diversify his investment and talk about establishing a portfolio. Before that, sorry, you are not a qualified cryptocurrency investor yet, so concentrate on hoarding BTC first. And this entry barrier will only get higher and higher as time goes by. You know, there will only be 21 million BTC in total, and there are more than 7 billion people in the world, and the average person is less than 0.003 BTC.
If the experience and methods that have been developed through the bulls and bears on the road to cryptocurrency investment can be popularized to more currency users, more people will establish correct investment concepts and form effective investment methods. It would be a very good thing to earn the return of wealth appreciation through disciplined action. The author conceived to build a cryptocurrency investment club based on this concept, called 1BTC Club. The threshold is to own 1BTC (or plan to establish a 1BTC position in the next year), popularize and exchange correct values, wealth and investment views, and share Investment methods, industry intelligence and analysis reports, learn from each other and improve together, and encourage and witness that every member can demonstrate the path to wealth and freedom through self-action.
Friends who are interested in this idea are welcome to contact the author (WeChat: evanipv6) for further discussion.
4
Spillover theory
The Austrian school master and economist Mises had a wonderful discussion on "primitive interest" in his magnificent work "Human Behavior". He said that the existence of primitive interest is based on the simple fact that people will give a higher value to the enjoyment in the present than in the future. To put it plainly, 100 yuan today will be worth more than 100 yuan 10 years from now. So, if you want to postpone the enjoyment of the present willingly, you must give more in the future. The extra part is interest. Mises said that primitive interest is synonymous with such an impeccable logic, so primitive interest cannot be eliminated. Any intervention can only eliminate nominal interest, but cannot eliminate original interest.
The subjective value theory is very exciting. The wonderful thing is that this theory is based on a series of logical reasoning. But it conceals or deliberately ignores another simple fact that the universe does not care about human feelings . What is one of the ultimate laws that govern our universe? The principle of entropy increase, right? It is almost certain that although humans feel that if today’s bread is delayed for me to obtain it 10 years later, I must have more bread to make it worthwhile, but the universe doesn’t care about what “should” and “should not” be. That is, time will destroy all valuable things, everything will be attributed to corruption and chaos, local ordering is just a lingering life in limited time and space, and the energy consumed by each self-organization will further increase the overall entropy. Accelerate the entire universe to heat death.
This principle is as simple and simple as a bread stored for 10 years will only become dust instead of 10 breads. The one that can turn 1 loaf into 10 loaves, or the creation of interest, is not the so-called primitive or natural, it is not the universe, but it is precisely the kind of life that resists the power of entropy and is partially self-organized , Including living humans and their actions to order their surrounding environment, we call it "labor", at the cost of releasing more entropy to the outside world, that is, "causing greater environmental damage", and An orderly arrangement of inverse entropy increase is formed locally. This kind of substance composed of atoms and molecules arranged in an orderly arrangement according to our mind has one or another use for us, so we call this use "value" . The force of nature is destroying value, while the force of man is creating value locally. Although the overall situation is somewhat self-defeating, isn't this the meaning of life?
Therefore, the so-called primitive interest is not endogenous in material at all, but created by man. Without human labor and hard work, there is no interest. Not only is there no interest, I am afraid that even the principal will be wiped out.
It can also be said that there is no so-called primitive interest at all. All sources of interest are human labor. To possess interest is not to possess the gifts of nature, but to possess human labor.
So why does human labor create interest? Probably because of increased productivity. If a person's labor cannot even support himself, then there is definitely no interest. And when one’s labor is enough to feed oneself and to be rich, then the extra value becomes the source of interest. The remaining question is who owns the extra value of this part. Although it seems that whoever created it should possess it is the most fair and reasonable, but surprisingly, since the history of mankind, this has never been the case. In the Stone Age, slaves created value and slave owners possessed it. In the farming era, farmers create value and landlords occupy it. In the industrial age, hitting workers creates value and capital owners occupy it.
Value will “overflow” from the person who created it, flow into certain assets, and be occupied and enjoyed by the owners of these assets. The cause and way of this "overflow" constitute the essence of a certain social system.
Such assets can be houses, stocks, or cryptocurrencies.
The so-called investment is the planned purchase of high-quality assets that can undertake these "overflow" values, and then share the dividends of this world's productivity improvement.
(Public account: Liu Jiaolian)
(Disclaimer: None of the content in this article constitutes any investment advice. Cryptocurrencies are extremely high-risk varieties, and there is a risk of returning to zero at any time. Please participate with caution and be responsible for yourself.)