Kids and Prizes

Title:
SGU 495

Have nnn prizes,mmm individuals, each has1 n \frac{1}{n}n1The probability of selecting a prize, if the prize has not been selected before, the prize will be won. Ask the expectation of the number of people who won the prize (in fact, it is the probability).

Idea 1:
Let f [i] f[i]f [ i ] display numberiiThe probability that i individual gets a gift, then
f [i] = (1 − f [i − 1]) f [i − 1] + f [i − 1] (f [i − 1] − 1 n) f[i ]=(1-f[i-1])f[i-1]+f[i-1](f[i-1]-\frac{1}{n})f[i]=(1f[i1])f[i1]+f[i1](f[i1]n1)
( 1 − d p [ i − 1 ] ) ∗ d p [ i − 1 ] (1 - dp[i-1]) * dp[i-1] (1dp[i1])dp[i1 ] meansi − 1 i-1i1 person did not get the prize,iiThe probability that individual i will receive a prize (equal toi − 1 i-1iThe probability of 1 person winning a prize),dp [i − 1] ∗ (dp [i − 1] − 1 / n) dp[i-1] * (dp[i-1]-1/n)dp[i1](dp[i1]1 / n ) means thei − 1 i-1i1 person got the prize and theiiThe probability that individual i will receive a prize, because thei-th − 1 i-1i1 person got the prize, so theiiThe probability of individual i getting a prize isdp [i − 1] − 1 / n dp[i-1]-1/ndp[i1]1 / n , that is, the probability of winning the prize is reduced by1 / n 1/n1/n

Idea 2:
The probability that each prize will not be selected = (n − 1 n) m = (\frac{n-1}{n})^m=(nn1)m
Expectation of each prize being selected= 1 − (n − 1 n) m =1-(\frac(n-1)(n))^m=1(nn1)m the
answer isnnExpected sum of n prizes= n (1 − (n − 1 n) m) = n(1-(\frac(n-1)(n))^m)=n(1(nn1)m)

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Origin blog.csdn.net/qq_43520313/article/details/108586165