If you follow Filecoin, you will definitely sigh: it's too magical. Those who love her love to death, those who hate her hate to death.
In the past week, gossip has been flying everywhere. For example, the 1.5 million FIL of the Protocol Laboratory hit the market, and the miners went on strike against the Filecoin economic model. As if overnight, the protocol laboratory transformed from "awaited by all people" to "spit by all people" in the Chinese community.
The Chinese community lacks news about overseas agreement laboratories, and domestic project parties seem to be silent. Around Filecoin, staged a reversal drama, or a farce.
One week later, what happened to Filecoin? Is it a good project? Will Chinese miners continue to play? Today, let's take a look at what "disease" Filecoin has, and why FIL has plummeted.
Miners on strike? Official smash? FIL plummeted! Magic 7 days after Filecoin went online
FIL, in short supply! In short supply! In short supply!
As of press time, Filecoin browser filscout.io data shows that the total network power is 609.89 PiB. On October 15th when the mainnet went live, this data was 566.9PIB. From this perspective, the miners did not go on strike and shut down. On the contrary, the computing power is still growing, but the speed is indeed a bit slow, an increase of about 6.6% in 7 days.
At present, this node with the address of F02770 provides effective computing power of 41.35 PiB, ranking first in the entire network. Since the 18th, the computing power growth of this node has slowed down, and on the 20th, there has been zero growth, but it has not decreased. The top ten nodes are basically similar.
In the logic of Filecoin mining, the sooner the sector encapsulation is completed, the sooner it has more effective computing power, and the more mining revenue can be obtained. With the same 100T computing power, there is a big gap between the benefits of packaging in 50 days and packaging in 100 days. Simply put, only when the packaging is completed, the mining machine can be considered as 100% full-powered for mining. From the perspective of interest, everyone is anxious to quickly increase their effective computing power when the mainnet is just launched.
Today, there is only one reason for the slow growth of the effective computing power of the entire network. The mining pool does not have enough FIL. Without FIL, sector packaging cannot be completed, and there is no way to increase effective computing power. That is to say, the mining machine cannot exert its full strength, and the rest of the more machines can only be shut down and sleep a long time. Some people speculate that the hash rate of Filecoin, which has not yet been awakened, is about 4 times that of today.
How much is the gap in the market for FIL? Wendy, head of the market and brand of Diancun Technology, told Babbitt that it is not possible to calculate the total computing power of the mining machines sold in the market, but it can calculate how much FIL is required for each additional 1 PiB of effective computing power in the market.
Today, a 32G sector requires 0.22 FIL to be mortgaged (constantly changing), about 7.04 FIL per T and 7208 FIL per P. Judging from the test network, there is no problem with increasing the effective computing power of 10PiB every day on the whole network, so 72,000 FILs are needed every day. In fact, the space-time cloud alone may be able to increase the computing power by 10PiB per day.
What is the daily release of FIL from mining? Probably more than 20,000 pieces. The FIL gap is terrifying. Every mining pool is like a baby elephant waiting to be fed.
Miners on strike? Official smash? FIL plummeted! Magic 7 days after Filecoin went online
▲FIL price of Huobi
Filecoin is true or false, who is playing the trick? Why did it plummet?
If you look at the price of Filecoin since its launch, it’s quite frightening. Take Huobi as an example. At 23:00 on the 15th, the FIL spot trading pair went online and broke. The price hit a maximum of $220 and then plummeted. Today, the price of FIL It is $31, which is 85% from the high point.
During this process, it was reported that the protocol laboratory hit the market and 1.5 million FIL was recharged into exchanges such as Huobi and Gate. Soon, the protocol laboratory became a target of public criticism.
Where did the coins come from? According to the previous economic white paper plan, before the mainnet launch, there are only three outlets for FIL spot, which are the output of the early space race, the early private and public investment, the official distribution of the agreement laboratory, and the mining output of the day, a total of 4 paths. Linear unlock.
Rough calculations, on the first day of the mainnet launch, the amount of FIL unlocked was about 500,000. Among them, the FIL unlocked by miners, as mentioned above, was almost 20,000.
However, it seems that a lot of coins have flooded into the market!
The problem lies in the fact that during the testnet period, miners have already begun to participate in mining. At that time, the protocol laboratory airdropped a batch of tokens for the miners for mortgage mining, but later, these tokens turned into the main network. currency! This is clearly beyond everyone's expectations.
If you have the impression, on the day the mainnet went live, the GitHub account became popular, because every account that meets the requirements can receive a test coin. Anyone who holds the account can recharge and sell it on the exchange as long as it applies Opportunity is $200 for nothing (currently unable to receive coins)
How many test coins are there in this batch? The opinions vary from one million to ten million, but where is the person who holds the largest amount of coins? They are miners, especially the top miners involved in mining during the testnet stage. Some practitioners told Babbitt that on the day the FIL was launched on the exchange, some miners chose to cash out at a high point. And this may also be the reason for FIL's plunge.
On the 20th, Juan’s Twitter sent more than 40 tweets in a row, one of which mentioned: There are some bad groups, they are trying to make trouble for profit. There are also groups that try to use or abuse the mechanism. But overall, these people are only a minority.
"A lot of people want to get rich quickly through Filecoin, rather than contribute value to the network." Juan said. Regarding the rumors of cash out, Juan's statement is also quite official, which is to maintain the stability of the early currency price.
Miners on strike? Official smash? FIL plummeted! The magic of 7 days after Filecoin went online. Therefore, the magic of Filecoin is that there are indeed miners who do not have coins. For example, small miners who did not participate in the space race in the early stage must also have large miners cash in a large number of tokens. And the protocol laboratory, indeed, made currency to the exchange.
Regarding the protocol laboratory selling coins, some miners would say that this is killing two birds with one stone. It not only maintains the stability of the currency price, but also makes cash out. In response to the "strike" of Chinese miners, some practitioners lamented: "China has sold too many mining machines and computing power, and there is still an oversold phenomenon. Why do large mining pools "strike" because they do not transfer the contradiction. They are about to be defended."
In fact, in the past few years, Filecoin's mining machine vendors, mining pools and other computing power providers have obtained a lot of funds from the market, but it is unknown how much money is actually invested in the equipment. Many people know this well. After the Filecoin mainnet went live, the inability to increase computing power became the biggest challenge for early practitioners, which meant that they could not explain to consumers. In addition, Filecoin has non-qualified investors who cannot be counted, which may cause mass incidents such as rights protection.
In response to this series of god reversals and community splits, some miners pointedly pointed out that everything is the result of a game of interests.
Miners on strike? Official smash? FIL plummeted! The magical 7 days after Filecoin went online
▲Mining machine of a domestic Filecoin mine
The world is looking for FIL, and Filecoin mining continues to move forward.
China is undoubtedly a gathering area for Filecoin miners. Today, every practitioner dedicated to Filecoin is looking for FIL. But different project parties appear very different because of different services. It can be said that the Eight Immortals cross the sea, each showing their magical powers.
For example, some project parties announced that they would bear the cost of collateralizing FIL, while others would require mining machines or computing power purchasers to bear it themselves, and some project parties would withhold daily mining output and use it as collateral to increase effective computing power. However, more project parties actually choose not to increase the pledge, that is, not to increase the effective computing power.
Keypool co-founder Jia Xudong said that the demand for staking coins is very large. For the staking demand after the mainnet launch on the 15th, their idea is to connect Keypool to find coins. The interest rate costs involved in this will be borne by everyone, so as to increase the effectiveness as soon as possible Computing power.
According to Jia Xudong, Filecoin mining must go on, and their biggest wish now is to quickly let the computing power run and quickly let users gain benefits. As the project party, Keypool has more resources to find coins and the cost is lower. At present, the source of FIL has been determined, and we are waiting to announce related policies, such as interest distribution.
"We have some retail users, the amount is not large, but there are a lot of things." Jia Xudong laughed at himself.
In interviews with several practitioners, I found that this form of cost sharing is quite common. This form also involves whether miners can now get coins.
From the public information, we can see that the Filecoin cloud computing power product of the Whale Exchange uses a pre-mortgage to be paid by the project party. The user's daily output will pay the above-mentioned pre-mortgage in advance without interest, but they have begun to linearly release space The output of the competition.
Hufu said that, referring to the current economic model, the balance period of output and pre-staking can be reached in about 90-100 days. Therefore, they choose to use the output for pre-collateralization, and then distribute the income until the equilibrium point is reached.
From the Filecoin participants interviewed, it can be felt that the most urgent thing now is to find FIL and start mining. "First, ensure the increase of effective computing power, but the pressure of buying and borrowing coins is great, and it takes time and strategy." The miner said.
In response to the lack of FIL, the protocol laboratory also made concessions. For example, the FIP-4 proposal that miners expected is about to land, and the block height will be upgraded at 170,000 (around 7 o'clock on the 23rd, Beijing time).
Qi Mei from the Arweave volunteer community said that 25% will be released first, and the remaining 75% will still be released at 1/180. This can alleviate the lack of FIL for miners.
In addition, the agreement laboratory is also trying to communicate with partners, trying to provide small loans to miners, and only allow miners to use the loan for pledge, and there will be a daily limit for borrowing. However, the specific interest and quota data were not disclosed.
Also recently, Huobi launched HFIL based on Ethereum, and Huobi also has FIL lock-up mining function. According to Diancun Technology Wendy, they are also docking with Huobi, trying to quickly increase their computing power by borrowing coins.
The initiator of the IPFS community Xie Jinbin (Xie Dapao) told Babbitt that users can go to the DeFi platform to borrow HFIL, then go to the Huobi Exchange to exchange for real FIL, and then use the coin as a pre-collateral. Everyone is happy.
Wu Hongbing, the founder of Manulife Blockchain and a participant in the Filecoin ecosystem, said that there are still certain uncertainties in FIL mining, including the official revision of the rules, such as speeding up the release and reducing the pledge. "The long-term plan is really not easy to say. At the moment, our plan is to continue to find qualified investors and participate in FIL together while solving the pledge and being able to redeem it for investors. At present, we can only take a step by step."
100,000 RMB, how long will Filecoin mining pay back?
It is necessary to mention that today, for Filecoin mining, the final risk bearer should still be miners who bought mining machines and computing power. As the weakest link in information acquisition, it may also be the most difficult group in the ecology.
"They still have a certain degree of anti-risk ability, and their overall risk appetite is relatively high. Their current idea is that as long as they can dig out, they can produce output every day. In the economic model, the small miners who buy the mining machine are completely I didn't figure it out." said a Filecoin mining pool practitioner.
He also gave us a calculation of the possible mining income. Assuming an investment of 100,000 yuan, how long will it take to pay back?
First of all, look at how much effective computing power can be purchased by 100,000, and then how long it takes to fill up the effective computing power. The faster the package, the higher the profit. It is relatively easy to simply calculate the payback period after the seal is full. Assuming that you can buy 100T, you need about 605 FIL according to the current mortgage amount, and 25 FIL per day for 100T (decreases with the increase in the computing power of the whole network). The calculation power is static and the price is 30 dollars. More than 2 months.
But this is a simple calculation. In fact, it will take 3 to 6 months for the mining pool to be full of computing power. In addition to the 180-antenna release and the token commission charged by the software service fee, the overall payback period should exceed For 10 months, this is calculated according to the cost of 1,000 yuan per T. If the cost of buying is high, it means that the payback period will be longer.
"Actually, it is very troublesome to count back to this cycle. I always estimate it, and I haven't calculated it accurately." He said.
Filecoin, what is the use?
Many people are confused about what is the use of Filecoin, so I tried to find an entrance from the official website, and tried to save a picture through the content storage and retrieval application of IPFS. Unfortunately, I did not touch the doorway for an afternoon.
Later, practitioners told me that this is not yet possible, and that it needs to develop additional upload and retrieval front-ends. Now, the network is still proving that it has these storage spaces and is able to ensure the security of customer data. ToC and ToB are far from storing real data.
In fact, in the second phase of the Filecoin space race, it includes incentives for application developers and tool developers, for example, allowing developers to develop application front ends with storage and retrieval capabilities. At present, storage and retrieval are both command lines and not available.
Juan also emphasized this in his latest Twitter: "We already have huge capacity, and we don't need more. Now, the network must store valuable data for users. We must focus on using capacity."
Although Juan is somewhat suspected of shifting focus, for Fileocoin, usefulness may be its biggest challenge in the future.
In any case, although Filecoin's mainnet is online and the ecology is gradually improving, it is farther for C-end users to say that the real landing application is. Today, Filecoin still needs imagination. Of course, in terms of practical applications, in the entire cryptocurrency world, there are several public chains that dare to say: Am I easy to use?
For the Filecoin mining industry, practitioners basically believe that it will get better and better.