Wen|She Kaiwen
Source | Intelligent Relativity (aixdlun)
The global PC market, which has been weak for a long time, finally started to rebound from last year. IDC data shows that PC shipments in 2019 reached 267 million units, a year-on-year increase of 2.74%, the first increase in nearly four years.
This year, affected by the new crown epidemic, the market's demand for PC hardware has further increased. IDC data shows that global PC shipments in the second quarter of 2020 increased by 11.2% year-on-year, and total shipments reached 72.3 million units, the largest increase in recent years. . Among them, the growth of notebook computers was the most prominent. In the second quarter, global notebook computer shipments reached 54.2 million units, a year-on-year increase of 27%.
In terms of branding, Honor has become a dark horse this year. From the data of 618, Honor won the first place in the total notebook list and the thin and light list of JD.com respectively. In the first half of the year, Huawei surpassed HP and Dell to rise to the second place in domestic sales.
Online courses and home office have become rigid needs, which have successfully driven the consumption of notebooks. However, due to the emerging needs and the rapid growth brought about by this year's special situation, I am afraid that it will not be the long-term support for notebook growth. How wide is the road ahead for notebooks ? Become a question.
1. Can the notebook industry in the "tunnel vision" not come out? Still don't want to come out?
Over the years, the most common complaint about laptops is "toothpaste squeezing". Basically, the upstream supplier has released some "new things" or updated a single configuration, and the brand has issued a new model based on it. Has been "stable" at this stage.
The “stability” of the overall notebook computer market in the first half of 2020 remains unchanged. Except for some regular hardware upgrades, the “AMD True Fragrance” law can be regarded as a more or less accident. In the face of double-sided attacks from Apple and AMD, Intel Will there be some new things to break through and become a highlight of the future of the market, but at present, without disruptive innovation, it is still difficult to break the bottleneck of the existing market.
The entire industry seems to have entered the "tunnel vision" collectively. The so-called "tunnel vision" refers to "when a person is in a tunnel, all he sees is a very narrow field of vision before and after. It is described as not expanding the mind, difficult to open the field of vision, and not wide. , The road under your feet will become narrower and narrower."
But for laptops, even in the "tunnel view", is it impossible to get out? Still don't want to come out? this is the key of the problem.
Looking back on the development history of notebook computers, whether it is Toshiba, the pioneer of notebook computers, or IBM and Apple, which later led the market, they stirred the market with "revolutionary innovations", such as "ThinkPad", which allowed IBM to lead the way. For more than 10 years, it is still Lenovo’s killer product; another example is Apple, which has been "brilliant" since its birth, such as the launch of notebook computers with color TFT displays in 1991; and the first launch of the first equipped with a touch panel in 1994. Notebook computers; the first wireless notebook in 1999 and the birth of the PC killer Apple MacBook in 2006 all illustrate the importance of innovation.
Around 2006 was a turning point for notebook computers. Smart phones have risen step by step until they exploded. On the contrary, notebook computers have not made obvious progress, and then gradually entered the stage of "toothpaste squeezing".
Regarding the development of notebook computers, there are currently two mainstream voices, one is "no contention". Under the attack of smart phones, tablet devices and other parties, notebook computers are willing to become a foil, and they have not even appeared in the same configuration as smart phones. , The situation of fighting ability.
Another believes that after years of precipitation, the development of notebook computers has slowed down, and the upgrading of its core technology and accessories has not had a significant impact on the daily use of users. In addition, the service life of the notebook computer is long, and it does not make much sense to replace the new product first without affecting the daily use.
In addition, the market's demand for high-tech technology is not as large as that of mobile phone users. It is only a small number of gamers or professionals in need.
The latter voice is more rational and recognized by most companies. The notebook update iteration cycle is now almost the same as that of ordinary household appliances. It is difficult to achieve leapfrog innovation. At the same time, it is generally believed that it is unnecessary, whether it is for consumers or manufacturers. Businesses are unwilling to make too radical changes, so slow lag is normal.
It seems to be "comfortable with the status quo", but this is actually a manifestation of ambivalence. The "tunnel" in the "tunnel" has also become a "comfort circle". Why do you want to come out inside? On the other hand, whoever comes out first must be able to take the initiative, but the problem lies in the ability to come out.
2. What new changes can Huawei and Xiaomi accelerate their notebooks?
Back in time 4 years ago, at the Mobile World Congress held in Barcelona in February 2016, Huawei launched its first laptop product.
In just four years, Huawei's notebook sales have now climbed to the second place in China, and Lenovo is only a mountain in front of him. Not only Huawei itself, its brand Honor has also made a name in the notebook market, following the gameplay in the field of smartphones, one focusing on high-end high-performance products, and one focusing on low- and mid-level performance products with high cost performance, quickly forming Full coverage of the consumer market.
Top 10 online retail market brands from January to June 2020
Data source: AVC
Previously, Lenovo also specifically "commented" many new players such as Huawei and Xiaomi, suggesting that they "don't enter the computer industry lightly. You can't achieve results in less than 10 years." Lenovo's "recommendations" can be regarded as "experience". "Lenovo has a long-term occupation of more than 30% of the domestic PC market. Lenovo is qualified to say this; similarly, Lenovo's "guilty conscience" can be heard, and no one wants to disturb them. It is of course comfortable to occupy the market quietly for a long time.
In any case, Huawei and Xiaomi have already entered the market and have achieved certain results. In addition to changes in sales rankings, what will they bring to the notebook market?
1. The door for smartphone brands to enter the PC track has just opened?
As we all know, at present, domestic mobile phone brands have a fanatical obsession with "ecology", and even form a set of senses of "no ecology or intelligence".
Smart phones are undoubtedly the core of their "ecological". In addition, wearable devices, smart speakers, TVs, tablets, etc. are all becoming important links in the overall scene layout.
This is true of Huawei's "1+8+N", and so is Xiaomi's "mobile phone + AIoT dual engine". Now with the further expansion of Huawei and Xiaomi in the notebook computer market, their Honor and Redmi are also following up. A wave of smartphone brands entering the notebook market seems to have just begun.
Since last year, OPPO and VIVO have also paid more and more attention to their own ecology. From content to hardware, they are following the pace of Huawei and Xiaomi step by step. The most obvious example is that OPPO TV has passed the 3C certification recently, following Huawei’s "Smart Screen" and Xiaomi After Smart TV and OnePlus TV, OPPO TV is one step closer to the market.
What about after TV? Notebook computers are not the next one. When there are more OPPO notebooks, IQOO notebooks, VIVO notebooks, and Realme notebooks, I believe the market will not be a fuss.
2. Do "addition and subtraction" on the laptop
Of course, what Huawei brings to the note-taking market is not just competition. Although Huawei was not in the "tunnel" from the beginning, since there is no movement inside, breaking the "tunnel" from the outside may also be a way.
To say that there have been widespread cognitive innovations in notebook computers in recent years, it is certainly not without them, such as full screen, fingerprint unlocking, privacy screen, high score screen, etc., have also gained a lot of recognition.
But in terms of investment in details and innovation, Huawei is still ahead. The concept of full screen is transplanted by Huawei from the field of smartphones to notebooks. MateBook X Pro has taught the market a lesson.
After that, both Huawei and Honor have equipped the "multi-screen collaboration" function on the hardware, opening a new journey of "large and small screen" integration. Up to now, Huawei and Honor have supported 15 and 16 notebook products respectively. "Multi-screen collaboration" has become a unique highlight for them to attract Huawei and Honor mobile phone users.
At present, the most admired thin and light notebook in the market, Huawei also "does a lot of effort". Like the latest MATEBOOK X, it has the slogan "extremely thin and light". The thickness of 13.6 mm plus the weight of 1 kg, plus the 13 inches The size can be regarded as "unprecedented".
It seems that these "new" technologies are not new, but it is true that only Huawei has moved them to notebooks. This is also the biggest difference between Huawei and Honor and other brands. Other brands used to pay more attention to the hardware configuration, such as processors, graphics cards, and memory. Huawei looked more closely and changed products from the "service". form.
Compared with the previous traditional brands "in the tunnel", Huawei's arrival has indeed reopened the industry's "competition" for detailed service technology. In addition, Huawei’s "frustration" on smartphones in the past two years may also affect the domestic PC market. Although it is a last resort, domestic PC processors have become imperative.
3. How can traditional brands respond?
With the entry of new players and the threat of potential entrants, it is obvious that traditional brands can no longer "sit and wait." In the first half of this year, AMD's "cost-effective" advantage may further affect the entire market.
Huawei was once known as the most "cost-effective" domestic notebook computer. After Xiaomi entered the market, the "cost-effective" battle was naturally pushed to the top.
Even a "king" like Lenovo can't help it. From the perspective of Lenovo's actions this year, it is indeed "anxious." One day after Huawei released the matebook X, Lenovo also issued a notice "the world's first foldable laptop" ThinkPad X1. Fold claims to redefine "PC". It is also a 13-inch screen with a weight of 999 grams, which is 1 gram lighter than Huawei and has a strong smell of gunpowder.
In terms of market operations, the "old" Lenovo also wants to "regain" the young people market. It holds rock music festivals, signs small fresh meat spokespersons, and establishes Slogan that "integrates with young people", etc., which all show that Lenovo is really serious. Meet the hardest "battle" in the past decade.
Traditional industries like laptops seem to be squeezing toothpaste, so outsiders need to break the game, and Huawei has done it.
In general, the entry of companies with “extremely strong marketing capabilities” in the fields of mobile phones, tablets, such as Huawei and Xiaomi, is certainly good news from the perspective of the industry as a whole. Consumer benefit is one aspect, and the most important thing is Healthy competition in the market will be reactivated. If the industry can be "forced" out of the "tunnel", notebook computers may still have spring.
to sum up
Most of 2020 has passed. In addition to the improvement of technology and hardware, the emergence of such a powerful disruptor as AMD has also brought more uncertainty to the market. The demand for cost performance is getting higher and higher. Even if the industry wants to rest assured "Toothpaste", I am afraid it will be difficult to achieve, as for the long-term future, what kind of changes will take place in the notebook industry? It remains to be seen.
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