Wen | She Kaiwen
Source | Intelligent relativity (aixdlun)
Abstract Virtual reality (VR) equipment has been many technology giants have high hopes, but was smart growth now far behind the speaker. Intelligent speaker industry's performance in 2019, with a dazzling enough to describe.
Recently, GSMA after internal meetings to announce the Mobile World Congress MWC2020 canceled, since this is the MWC 1987 held the first time in 33 years canceled for intelligent hardware industry, indeed no small regret.
In the previous MWC Assembly on all kinds of new intelligent hardware, black frequent technology products, the audience captivated. Especially as recent sessions of intelligent speakers, virtual reality (VR) and other products more contests, and bustling.
But in the MWC's wonderful if you can not really go to market, then how much would be a bit empty, as intelligent speakers and virtual reality, is moving toward two very different direction the market.
Intelligent hardware Hutch: intelligent speaker to the left, right virtual reality
Recently, Strategy Analytics released the Q4 2019 global shipments of smart speaker report, the data show that in 2019 global smart speaker sales reached 146.9 million units, an increase of 70 percent over 2018, a record high.
Specific to the major manufacturers brands, Amazon and Google, though still occupy shipments of twelve, but their market share there has been a substantial reduction over last year, while China is the brand continued strong momentum, such as Baidu, Ali, millet market share is still rising steadily, which went Baidu's intelligent performance of small speakers of the most eye-catching, Q4年同比增长171 percent to reach 5.9 million units, won China's first four consecutive quarters.
Speakers from the global smart market, in 2019 a few happy tears. Although foreign brands rely on Amazon, Google still maintains the lead, but in terms of incremental market share and began to show signs of fatigue; and Apple, Microsoft and other brands catch up on a bit too weak and does not form a strong camp to head strong impact; Samsung smart speaker is just entering the market, regardless of product or the size did not form a climate.
And thanks to the huge domestic market demand for the outbreak, Chinese players like a duck intelligent speaker. According to Canalys data released earlier, by the end of 2018 the United States are the world's largest smart speaker market until Q1 2019 the situation changed, China intelligent speaker sales grew nearly 500 percent to reach 10.6 million units, surpassing the United States as the world's largest smart speaker market, accounting for more than half of the global share.
Overall, in 2019 the global smart speaker market is still triumph, especially in the domestic market such as the outbreak hit the needle "doping" smart speaker market.
By contrast, virtual reality products are not so "good luck", "were praised," it is still its main theme.
From the beginning of 2018, led to the virtual reality VR equipment market began to decline sharply, even if some of the products look stunning gains in the market, but also the delay is difficult to promote market-oriented process. The latest data only from 2019 Q1 global AR / VR head significantly given to ship 1.3 million units IDC, in 2018 an increase of 27.2% compared to the same period.
We can clearly see from the body mass, the gap between virtual reality products and intelligent speakers regular widening. IDC predicts that by 2023, the world's first virtual reality significant shipments will be 36.7 million units, and intelligent speaker is to appear more than a weakness.
In addition, unlike the smart speaker brand of news of success, VR brand down or restructuring of the news is another came. As StarVR restructuring, AR unicorn British company Blippar dissolution, Starbreeze Studios abandon VR business, IMAX completely abandon VR services, domestic same VR environment is not good, millet is also transmitted to abandon VR business, and the market has been focused VR STORM but collapse.
Even international companies in the field of VR such as Sony, HTC, Facebook, though occasionally some news about their own VR product release, but the specific sales outside world knew nothing, apparently there is nothing commendable.
Moment, two strong intelligent hardware in the field of intelligent speakers and virtual reality, walking down the different "life" roads.
VR want to break out the need to find broken windows sinking of the "stone"
If 2017 was the first year of smart speaker, then the virtual reality than it actually even a year earlier, in the eyes of many manufacturers and media, VR 2016 is seen as the first year.
Obviously early start, has become not keep up, the fundamental reason is that virtual reality failed to achieve the "broken window effect." The concept of social psychology in the widely cited, is also more suitable for the current market of VR. Once a window was broken, so people passing by entered the spate of throwing stones.
Look smart speakers, before Amazon, Google overcoming all obstacles, after Baidu, Ali menacing, broken window of a stone hand, how can withstand market?
1 "high threshold", "poor experience" VR foundation is not firm
Threshold for the use and experience, is the most urgent need of the moment VR product "rock." Most virtual reality product poses a relatively high threshold for the use, different from the speaker even smart phone, then through the power can be operated by voice or a few buttons, often also need to download the appropriate content, APP, and so on.
As for the user experience is "chronic illness", self-VR product was born until now, have not been an effective solution to this problem, use a long time will dizziness. For these reasons, even for users interested in VR technology, but few people are willing to wear the existing hardware.
Intelligent speaker is different, much more simple in operation and experience, and continues to evolve, in particular into the intelligent speakers screen dimensions enhance the human-computer interaction, to create a better experience for the user, a time Baidu, millet, Ali even Tencent, Lenovo and other Internet companies have incoming.
Canalys previously disclosed a set of speakers with screen smart data, Q3 2019 worldwide shipments grew by speakers screen 500%, landing the first Baidu, from the beginning of 2018 in the domestic release with screen products, follow-up and introduction of the smart screen, so its shipments was accounted for up to 61% of the global screen with speakers, three quarters of 2019 with a screen in the field of global market share is close to 40% of the busiest in the world.
Sales of fiery speaker with screen, has proved the market for the product experience attention than expected.
2, "lack of explosion models", "narrow audience" VR products hard to spread
VR product is difficult to succeed another reason is that the "lack of explosion models" and "narrow audience."
VR lack of content makes the product popular eco very difficult. Even until now, VR contents have largely focused on the games, film and other fields, but in related fields and no content explosion models do support, users might be curious come to see, can only look, can not make users stay long.
And, regardless of the game or movie has great limitations, one user age, the second is price, plus the space required for the site, complicated operations, one to two to many users are turned away.
相比之下，智能音箱则没有这些条条框框，男女老少都能在智能音箱产品上找到自己的需求。如搜索、阅读、听歌、影视、通话、学习等等，涵盖内容非常丰富，能够满足大多数用户在家庭场景中的使用需求，且能解决用户在生活中的诸多问题，这使得智能音箱产品的普及顺理成章。
可以看出，归因于VR产品的内容生态单薄，还无法提供广泛的服务价值，使其覆盖和触达人群相对薄弱。
3、“做创新”、“提需求”本质差异难跨越
最后，虚拟现实未能像智能音箱一样大红大紫，在于这两款产品本质就存在差异。对于VR产品而言，目前更多是在创造需求，而智能音箱则是在解决和提升现有需求，这是造成两款硬件产品不同格局的最主要原因。
简单理解，目前无论是亚马逊、谷歌还是百度，更像是将智能音箱定义为家中的APP，外观为音箱，但核心是在服务。
虚拟现实产品对于目前消费市场而言仍是个全新的东西，每走出一步都是在创造。智能音箱则不同，虽然起步晚但是成熟得更快，以至于它只需要稳步提升用以解决、满足用户需求即可。2019年，一些智能音箱主流厂商对产品功能做了一些大的升级，比如在用户交互流畅度方面，融入“全双工免唤醒”技术，让用户一次唤醒多次对话，还有交互模式上也增加手势、眼神唤醒等功能，无论是哪种改变都是在提升用户体验，让人和机器的交互更加自然。
也正由于这些区别的存在，使得二者在市场打开能力方面存在着巨大的差异。总而言之，VR想要实现“破窗”，需要拾起的“石子”还比较多。
2020，智能硬件有可期
5G落地、IoT概念火爆，虽然在一季度因外在影响，对于智能硬件市场有不小的冲击，但整体大环境仍是偏好，2020年市场依旧值得期待。
1、VR行业有信心，但“破窗”依旧艰难
相比2018年，2019的VR市场有了一丝回暖，行业发展逐渐从L型向U型过渡，不过距离广大的市场预期差距还是很明显。
虚拟现实设备短时间内虽然依旧难以实现爆发，不过2020年或许可以看成虚拟现实设备的一个新起点。
原因有三，首先就是5G网络的落地，“VR+云游戏”一直被当成VR行业的救命稻草，如今5G的到来，为它们的融合打下了至关重要的基础。其次，在于目前整体VR行业自身对于前景都比较乐观，可以看到许多公司如索尼、平行现实、联想等等都有新的VR产品即将发布，还包括华为在内的许多公司已经推出了相关新产品，显然业内对于2020年的VR市场依旧保有较高的期望值。第三则是其无法被忽视的应用潜力，人工智能产业目前正在全球大规模爆发，虚拟现实设备绝对是一个优秀的技术载体，这一点毋庸置疑。
未来，虚拟现实产品绝对有望成为人工智能的一个重要分支。
2、智能音箱势不可挡，IoT创造巨大市场
短期内，智能音箱的前景则要比VR产品光明得多，在已有的体量以及增长趋势下，智能音箱马上还将等来一个大的机遇，即IoT市场的成熟。
目前，各大品牌为抢占这一市场可谓开足了马力，特别以国内的几大品牌百度、阿里、小米为代表的玩家已经在摩拳擦掌。
阿里已经将天猫精灵当成家庭IoT场景的“棋眼”；依托智能音箱等产品，小米更是提出“1＋4＋X”战略；而目前领先的百度当然也不会袖手旁观，不断强化现有音箱产品生态，疫情期间抓准时机推出了1亿教育资源补贴，让智能音箱行业从战略布局到赛道落地，展现了进一步的可能性。
作为家庭IoT场景的最佳入口，智能音箱的价值显然还将进一步放大，成为家庭使用率最高频的智能硬件。
总结
当然目前用智能音箱与虚拟现实产品做比较可能有失公允，但这也是由于智能音箱自己的“争气”。
不过值得注意的是，目前产品硬件差异化正变得越来越困难，消费者对于智能助手的期待值也越来越高，各大品牌只有不断加速产品进化才能始终让自己呆在圈内，也只有如此才能使智能音箱产品完成更深层次的市场触达。
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