In 2019 draws to a close, many people did not think, Keep will become a major focus of the entire industry. Recently, due to the number of Keepland stop operations in the previous Keep it announced the layoff of 10% -15%, and the entire people of the Keep future fitness industry are beginning to worry about it.
As the leader in the Chinese online sports and fitness market deserved, Keep has worked six financing, and on July 10, 2018 was US $ 127 million D round of financing, led by Goldman Sachs investment, Tencent, GGV GGV Capital, Morningside capital, Bertelsmann Asia investment Fund and other existing shareholders with the vote.
In full support of 200 million users and a number of leading venture capital institutions, Keep even began to suffer certain obstacles in the commercialization of this mean bottleneck in the fitness track has occurred? Keep future Ye Hao, enterprises or other fitness, it is not very difficult to grow business revenue multiples of? Keep the future will really have a future?
Industry reshuffle fitness market is still excited state
2019 includes Hosa fitness fitness brand on foot, including many closed down, with the recent ferment keep events, we will naturally have to question the future of the fitness market, but behind the bustle of melons for the event, when we actually go and analyze Keep after the sports and fitness market will find that the development of sports and fitness market is still far from the bottleneck, the opportunity to increase revenue multiples are still there.
(1) Fitness to Start easily retained hard
Compared with blindly optimistic about an industry or a business, if you can find the problem quickly run the brainstorming process, this long-term development for the industry and for companies but is a positive factor. Through Keep triggered controversy in the industry, we can not deny that the current fitness industry does exist is not a small problem.
This is one of the most core of the problem is that, regardless of the fitness industry Ye Hao, fitness habits worth mentioning, this is an easier said than done thing. Fitness industry, the entry itself is easily retained difficult thing.
Previously, even the Keep Wang Ning are admitted through the difficult issues retained in public. This is actually a feature of the entire fitness industry. Food fattening, in essence, we can be understood as a process of enjoyment, but for white users, they are in fact every time fitness a "painful torture", they will be hard to fitness as a treat, and more difficult to continue the exercise.
In such a human impact, whether it is the user going to the gym at line frequency or the frequency of online users open Keep, compared to other sectors of users active frequency, it will always unpleasantness.
(2) fitness market is still ample room for imagination
We can not as a kind of basis this industry characteristics determine the fitness market since the bottleneck. The real Chinese fitness industry, not only bottleneck yet to come, but also the market potential should not be underestimated.
According to the survey, China's average obesity rate of about 12%, of the total number of obesity highest in the world, including Beijing obesity rates as high as 25.9%, as the country's first fat. Two fat Hebei obesity was 22.2%, and obesity in women than men.
Data from obesity rate of China's point of view, in the case of obesity has become a significant risk to human health, the Chinese people's living conditions are in significantly improved, in order to pursue live better and live longer and work. Relying on China's population base, on to the obesity problem and become healthier on the road, the Chinese people for weight loss, fitness long-standing demand. As long as no major economic problems, the outlook is still very large track.
In the case of the future there are a lot of obese people need to exercise to lose weight, we started talking about the fitness industry today, the ceiling has now, indeed somewhat premature. At the same time, compared to Europe and other developed countries the fitness industry, China's fitness industry is still in the early stages of development, but also requires a lot of exploration. And comparing the foreign market, the Chinese market, there are obvious differences. Really belong to the golden age of China's fitness industry has not yet come.
However, in 2019, the company closed down too many stars, it has been quietly used to see the case of the Unicorn development companies face obstacles. This time people keep questioning the fact is normal, but the truth is what?
Keep no hardship commercial speed
In recent days, an article entitled "Keep the hardship and finality" on the hot lead. The authors believe that early Keep standardize through exercise classes, are given a religious movement, relying on the favor of capital, quickly became a favorite fitness tool user. But in the follow-up operations and try to process, Keep business growth bottlenecks, liquidity channels blurred.
(1) Commercial revenue growth doubled Keep business continued to improve liquidity
Keep right or wrong about the past few years, in fact, nothing is more convincing than the attitude of market data and capital. Currently, Keep China today has become the first online sports platform, although indeed encounter a number of obstacles in the realization of some of the new terms of business, but Keep the overall liquidity score does not seem to be useless, especially in sports that bring a new product to the imagination force.
目前，Keep主要依靠广告、App会员、运动产品、Keepland，其中广告和会员主要依靠线上，这属于纯互联网产品的商业模式。在最近几年，Keep在大举尝试更多元的商业业务后，其实整体进展并不差。
其中，增长最为迅猛的就是运动产品业务。现在运动产品已经成为Keep当前的第一大现金流，已经达到10亿销售额的规模，在收入占比中排名第一，并且每年以 300% 的增速稳步成长。在天猫的健身品类中，Keep已经排名第四，前三分别是迪卡侬、lululemon和专门做跑步机的亿健。要知道，这前三名都是健身领域的老牌玩家，其中lululemon更是美股市场的热门个股，市值276亿美元。Keep能够在不足3年的时间就在运动产品领域获得这样的成绩，已经并不容易。
2017-2019 Keep GMV增长曲线图
同时，根据Keep从2017年到2019年的销售增长曲线图显示，Keep的营收是呈翻倍式增长的趋势，并且增长比例越来越高。这意味着Keep本身的商业增长空间也并还没有到达瓶颈，Keep的商业化能力亦在逐步提升中。
（2）自我重构 Keep越做越重
不过，正如最近大家对于Keep的争议一般，Keep并非是每一次新的尝试都能绝对成功。在未来Keep在健身市场这个广阔天地还有很大发展空间的情况下，一味地Keep过去这些年的对错我认为已经意义不大。如何更加高效快速地掘金未来，其实才是真正值得期待的。
今天，我们就暂且将keep功过相抵，真正去考虑keep这类产品的未来。毫无疑问地说，这必然会是一场痛苦的自我重构。
坦诚地说，《Keep 的困顿与终局》该文的观点和一些内容我并非完全认同，但作者提出的“需求的性质随着用户规模和时间而发生变化”，我非常认同的。一个企业也好，一个产品也罢，在不同的时间阶段，其使命、目标、策略都可能会有所变化。Keep的早期的身份是工具，一个让我们变得更加自律的工具，但如今Keep已经成为2亿人都用的健身工具，如何让健身这件痛苦且难支持的事情变得更加有趣、持续，让更多用户爱上健身，这或许是Keep未来新的使命。
要完成这个使命，纯粹的工具已经不符合keep的身份，keep已经到了一个需要重构自己的阶段，以生态角度越做越重就成为一种必然的趋势。
一方面，健身这个行业需要一整套解决方案的优化，才可能大幅提升留存，加大概率地帮助用户养成健身习惯。之前，有人说Keep啥都做，吃穿用练线下店面什么都有。其实这个行业就是这样，Keep要持续推出各种有趣的好用的产品、硬件产品以加强和用户的触点，才能满足好当前用户的需求，探索出商业模式的多种可能性。
在本身传统健身市场创新能力缺乏的情况下，能够做出更多的创新和尝试，这是keep的必须去做的事情，也是一件有利于Keep、用户、行业的事情。从Keep运动产品的增速其实就可以发现，什么都做的策略已经初显成效。
另外一方面，从笔者过往对Keep的观察来看，Keep已经到达了一个应该实现真正平台化、生态化的阶段。如何更开放让整个Keep生态繁荣起来，这是一个很关键的事情。
在过去的时间里，尽管Keep在这方面一直都在做尝试，但正如用户对于产品的需求会随着时间和阶段发生改变一样，用户的需求也会被整个市场所改变，Keep也得因此改变策略。
举个例子，keep的很多新尝试主要以keep的App为主，这非常符合前些年移动互联网火热阶段的战略意义。不可否认的是，目前APP如今对于企业来说都是把控权最强用户价值的渠道。
但我们不能否认的是，任何APP的获客成本和获客难度都已经超乎人们的想象。今天中国以今日头条、百度、微信、支付宝为首的这些超级APP，已经在流量入口和用户市场方面占用了一般企业很难去撼动的地位。哪怕人们想到健身运动就会想到Keep，但Keep依然不可能在用户时长、用户激活频率、用户留存方面去挑战这些超级APP。
在这种情况下，私域流量的兴起其实给Keep提供了好思路。所谓以微信个人号和微信社群为主的私域流量，并不是今天才出现。几乎每个中国网民都会使用微信，大量的健身群在微信里很活跃。
keep的APP既然因为APP的渠道属性没办法更加高效高频地与用户保持联系，了解他们的需求或者将新尝试的商品和服务触达给用户，完全可以依托于本身的流量优势经营自己的运动健身社群，让大量的个人号和社群成为激活用户使用Keep小程序和KeepApp的好渠道，带动Keep的商业化和留存度。
这样值得深思的案例还很多。而不容忽视的一点便是，既然是生态，在大量自媒体平台也在拉拢有创作能力的健身达人后，Keep如何帮助平台活跃用户获得有竞争力的收益，这就需要Keep以生态化的服务和商品去做支撑。
所以，为了让整个生态繁荣起来，为了真正从线上线下帮助用户养成健身习惯，Keep在这条道路上也只能变得越来越重。从最近几年keep的做出的各种商业路径尝试来看，如果我们以生态的角度去看待keep，你会发现keep这种尝试对于用户、对于大V、对于行业是有多么积极的推动意义。
高效试错锤炼企业竞争力
不过，尽管我们能明白Keep前进道路的意义，我们依然没办法阻止keep陷入风波，我们也没办法阻止2019年很多大家觉得不错的企业陷入风波甚至倒闭。
在市场回归理性后，企业如何高效地试错，控制成本及时止损，让自己可以在持续创新的过程中又能活得更久，才是王道。健身行业的创新和突破不是一朝一夕就能解决的，这是一个需要很长时间摸索和积累的过程。
Behind the controversies, we can not deny is that the future prospects of China's fitness industry is still very great, how to be more efficient innovation that will make the entire industry more quickly Nuggets. How quickly? We need more new ideas to keep the leadership in this industry, but also the need for innovative enterprise with more fitness and keep, with steady progress.
Today, in this era, nothing is more important than a stable and alive. Do keep weight is the great challenge, but it does also keep the primary second venture, a great opportunity to really change the fitness industry.
Author: Small modest, Internet observers, a number of technology media columnist, please indicate the copyright.
