Bitcoin mining in accordance with the rules of the 2008 block of Creation dug up 50 awards, reduced by half after every four years, that is 2012 25 2016 12.5 2020 6.25 until 2140 21 million BTC is all dug up, bitcoin mining incentives are breaking away from the stage of history.
According to the History of Bitcoin price chart, it appears that after each Bitcoin halved period, the market will be a big market bears turn cattle.
2012 Bitcoin halved prices soared 130-fold, 2016 Bitcoin halved prices soared 120 times, hit a peak of 20,089 US dollars.
"Blind" mental construction is expected to be halved under 01
2020 May, bitcoin mining reward will mark the third time in half, this will be the starting point for the next round of the magnificent bull market of digital assets you?
I think most people are looking forward to once again had a history of law can come true, if you really like it, Bitcoin prices will rebound from the bottom of $ 3152 to about $ 300,000. Think of all makes a kind of indescribable "cool."
Mark Twain said, "History does not simply repeat, but always surprisingly similar."
No 100 times, 50 times is not an exaggeration of it, $ 100,000 properly properly; nor 50 times, 10 times can always be right, $ 30,000 properly properly; if not enough 10 times, five times considered a conservative, right, then sprint back to twenty thousand dollars a properly properly. He advised always around you, now invest Bitcoin point, after halving doubled up absolutely no problem, at least outperform the vast majority of financial products.
What this really true?
Most people understand the historical facts can not be established as a basis for determining future investment decisions, but most people will make a mistake, that "high probability" repeatedly established and regularity of the facts as a basis for judgment.
Laws of history this thing, believe it or not, it is not subject to your supervisor will be controlled, just like throwing a coin, throwing nine are positive, then we all think without thinking, the 10th high probability will be positive. The fact is, every time the probability is always positive and negative 50%. Probability will never change, just get everyone's expectations.
According to CoinMarketCap data, block chain industry now total market capitalization of 234.3 billion US dollars, the plate has not small, and Bitcoin accounted for 65% of total market capitalization. Bitcoin may give halved bring better market, but to bring the whole industry chain block mad cow again, fear is unlikely.
But the rise in the previous half, or will people do not consciously produce too blind "mental construction" expectations.
"Bullish" decision in 02 optimism
And based on the probability of a large rise in blindly "optimistic" mood, most of the decision-making on the market are virtually "see more" up.
Part of the Internet practitioners began to enter the block cross-border trade gold chain that long bear market is over, it is time to wind up approach; a number of institutional funds began to Bitcoin into the portfolio, and look forward to the case of investment income in the overall downward market Bitcoin can outshine others; bitcoin miners sell the original currency to pay the electricity bills every day to maintain the operation, clutching his now prefer not to sell, waiting for the arrival of halving Quotes;
"Capital project side dish" is also active again planning white paper, fantasy bull by hot money and then put forward a hundred times coins enjoy the harvest; contract players become "bold", waiting for signs of when the market has started 10 times 100 times leverage look to earn a pours; retail investors who also have become a Buddha system, any market fluctuations, hold out to the bull market and then throw too late; the Cock wire have also become crazy, house, credit cards, etc. all Stud, a couple of years of suffering, the opportunity to bet on a turn around for it.
You see, the market is still as unknown ups and downs, the market instability has not changed, but market sentiment and actions of people already "see more" up.
See more leverage on the capital, are at risk every minute warehouse explosion, so your money to zero. But look on the emotions and actions and more, also has hidden costs can not be ignored, even less than pure financial loss, for example, hoard coins will lock liquidity, will have the opportunity costs of cross-border rashly, crazy contract action lose the entire principal, Stud gambling house will lose all the cards and so on. This is actually regarded as the hidden costs of "blindly" optimistic, including economic costs, social costs, and the costs of population (on the roof) and so on.
The real horror of influence, not in the past have produced a loss, but with the wrong methodology and values, to face the unknown possibilities. Proceeded to lose money also can be earned, but is likely to be wrong methodology same mistake again, until the principal or even all of the cards discarded.
So, based on what we awareness to greet the arrival of the next bull market it?
03 "CBBC conversion" in the cycle of supply and demand adjustment
Market "blind" will also appear in the general optimism CBBC conversion period, not only the presence of digital assets market, the stock market in the traditional securities markets, even greater "compo" economic cycle there are also such a law.
The problem is, however, prosperity, recession, depression, recovery in this market cycles short to 2--4 years can happen, as long as you want across four or five decades, how do you determine on and make certain that you will be able to step on the point it? After all, not everyone has the same general trend Rockefeller judgment.
The economic cycle of boom and bust, although elusive, but also has its inherent economic rules to follow. Consumer demand downstream, upstream stimulating production capacity. Once the force is insufficient demand downstream, midstream businesses will generate inventory, when inventory accumulated to a certain extent, the business will be "inventory clearance", while the upstream manufacturers will cease production, the economy began to decline. Conversely, the downstream consumer demand exceeds supply, it will have the opposite effect.
Industrial law tradition of the economic cycle, the financial and securities markets digital market also followed. It should be said that any economic system, there will be supply and demand, there will be a non-rational expectations, after a certain time to accumulate will breed bubble, digital asset market is no exception. And Bitcoin and other digital assets relatively more prone to magnify the role of "psychological expectations," the more likely to produce "living beyond" the time span effect, the consequences of its prosperity and decline are often also geometric magnification.
But, Bitcoin and other digital assets have not been able to find a large area popular landing scenario, the impact of supply and demand situation is the circulation and sale of consensus hoard of coins changed hands. Real Application layer, its market demand for electronic payments on the point far up. So where Bitcoin digital asset market is still just a drive from the "expected" in the upstream market, its speed will be faster to produce bubbles, faster rupture, CBBC conversion speed quickly.
From this logic, the birth of the bull market must be beyond the existing stock of greater "demand."
04 stock market is not sufficient to launch a bull
At first glance, Bitcoin halved really affected the market supply and demand, new daily dug Bitcoin is 1800 reduced to 900, the market will need more and more of Bitcoin, Bitcoin is changing every day and new output less , and in short supply, it will directly lead to Bitcoin prices move up.
Such assumption that logic is not wrong, but ignores the established fact: Bitcoin has dug up 18 million, and remove already lost three million, the market circulation of 15 million bitcoins there. The stock is currently trading at depth and volume of bitcoin is still far did not reach the level of the bull market, how can we believe, not dug up three million bitcoins Guards can turn life?
In fact, we all know, bitcoin prices in order to move up only by the user and the incremental funding. When the user turns one day currency has doubled, more people demand to hold bitcoins and they will buy from Bitcoin holders, and holders of Bitcoin has a higher price expectations hoard money demand, In this way it will produce a premium to drive Bitcoin prices climb.
I can say that most people need for Bitcoin are still limited to hoard coins, in addition to calculate the force required to spend a lot of competition in the power of the miners. These miners in order to maintain cash flow was forced to sell coins every day, if you buy currency on the market if demand is less than the amount of the miners sell the currency, Bitcoin prices could fall, on the contrary it will directly stimulate the rise.
Bitcoin is expected to halve the number of short-term miners will no longer sell currency, Bitcoin let the stock on the market can not meet the needs of the market, thus driving prices up, but now so big mining costs, the cost of future currency may dig a bit will reach $ 9,000 miners have ye may not sell currency. It has been estimated mining costs, when the count Bitcoin force exceeds 100E, mining total power consumption will reach 600 million kilowatts per hour will burn six million kWh of electricity is calculated according to gross 3.5, a one-hour mining costs will consume 2.1 million yuan. Ye may not sell?
Conversely, if the market price of Bitcoin halving not meet expectations, miners, mining deficits will produce a series of collapses consequences. The frequent coal mine, panic Zapan will instantly bovine to bear, looking for the bull market advance, block chain technology to destroy the market for landing popularity confidence, resulting in even more dire consequences.
Under stock market, short-term imbalance between supply and demand will also have to produce a bull market, but tend to be very short duration. But did not last long bull market, just as there is no volume Handicap highest price of the same, but the price is a mirage. How many people can really benefit in the bull market it? This is now the embarrassment of the stock market bull market, the gains but there is no support.
05 key variables before the next round of bull market
If pure speculation can concocted "false" bull market, then the birth of the bull market by the end of 2017, the agency bottoming point of view, still relatively "true."
Intelligent Ethernet Square contract set off 1CO model, not only changed the traditional financing model, just a continuation of the public entrepreneurship and innovation, the main theme of the times, set off a wave block chain industry boom. Institutional investors hot money, creative talents, and other kinds of business projects, a time block chain pulled into the funds industry, creating a supply and demand, pull into the power of entrepreneurship and innovation.
So in 2017 he staged a hundred coins contending flourishing big carnival, and therefore many of the Cock wire to achieve a counter-attack, embarked on the road of financial freedom. However, the upcoming 2020 "bull market" mean? But if there is a certain increment to undertake even carry forward the glorious 2017, there are still many "keywords" tag.
1, institutional approach. There is a saying, the bull market driven by retail, the next bull market will be driven by the agency. Greater body mass organizations of money, more depth, more stable arrangement, in theory, would uplift the market price to a new level not imagine. However, institutions buy currency, not just to earn value-added retail space.
The fact that the hot money institutions tend to invest money machine rather than appreciation. Institutional investment Bitcoin because Bitcoin block chain represents the broadest technical consensus, will become the future lead block chain technology to deepen landing hard currency, agencies in advance to grab some chips, but for the future expansion of paving block chain technology industry. Attract more institutional and enthusiasm admission admission, or rely on a steady stream of innovative projects, such as, DeFi, cross chain, layer 2 and many other emerging areas.
Do not rush to raise hypothetical organization will approach, and those financial predators Wanbian trick money out of thin air born, fattened ye may be delusional money you have already occupied the market from their pockets.
2, supervision black swan. Since 1025, the national top-level design block chain as a core technology breakthrough, to this digital assets to weak market hit a shot in the arm, suggesting that regulators gradually become clear. But after 50, 60 in the eyes of "block chain" and everybody in the eyes of the "block chain" Really, like what? When the black swan event supervision, a little bit of flesh scraped the bone, the Token mechanism, stripped to the center from the current block chain technology in the field when the block chain industry will also have the soul of it?
This is not optimistic of variable factors. In fact, the block chain industry to overcome the core technology is not exactly the safety and operational efficiency and rationality to the center of Token model of it? These did not, block chain technology would equal only an upgraded version of the Internet, interesting, but certainly not sexy. The key is that the existing block chain can take orders on policy in the digital economy of the east of it?
How leveraging, how to achieve the integration of Union chain and chain public, how to make Token mechanism of compliance, I can not do not want to, have to think.
3, order reconstruction. Any growth economies are inseparable from the accumulation of innovative talents. The Early in the currency speculation and speculation dominated the industry trend, invisible put a large number of creative talents to drive off. I have found that digital asset markets scenery may well be interpreted as "survivor bias" theory. Those with a history of NPC law propaganda recharge faith are two survivors of the bull market, they are only very few benefit, few people can copy their way of counter-attack. In contrast, we should look at how most people were washed off of? That is the experience and lessons of blood.
Token mechanism of ecological economic model was originally used to motivate the community, in people's psychological speculation and gamblers has become poison to stifle innovation in the cradle. Technology and innovation is the model gave birth to opponents of new projects, under the guidance 1CO even 1EO etc. after harvesting has become a model of intelligence taxes sickle. This ecosystem is currently a very disorderly. Eco-Block chain need much re-enact the standards and rules of order, so barbaric growth disorder in the development of the industry will mature and stable planted all kinds of risks.
Now ask critical point increments bull market where you must know what I want to express: value, innovation, order. To achieve true bull market trial and error needed capital, talent and dedication, entrepreneurship and innovation precipitation of building the base, time.
06 of the digital economy, the inevitable arrival of the bull market fundamentals
Said a large section of next year bull market do not blindly optimistic reason, some people began to bad mood, you will not let us see more, you will see empty it. On the contrary, I definitely see more of.
Li Xiao said: "In the short term, which is not only absolutely bullish digital assets, but the long term must be up in." Like the stock market to promote the growth of absolute power must be the same as the fundamentals of economic growth, driving up the digital assets is the future the advent of digital economy and society. You can not deny that the economy will grow, society will progress, right?
Most people are accustomed to see ups and downs of the stock without hesitation say that the dealer control disk harvest retail, digital asset markets because of the small dish market, but is considered to be the dealer scythe-wielding battlefield. In recognition of these people, the market is luring more rose up, and the prices fall down is harvested, anyway, are making a banner in the next, and the fancy retail meat case are board mercy. It really true?
How can retail stupid, short-term interests of those gamblers Bo is the world's most intelligent, most know how to profit and avoid loss. Looking at the results from the reason why they are really quite silly, but it is because being smart anti-cleverness. You look at those who play disk mode currency funds, the project parties are put on the foot look innocent look, they really stupid it? You know, an avalanche comes, no snowflake is innocent.
Productivity advances in science and technology in development, deepen collaboration, enhance efficiency, we need to see the source of economic growth projected behind any type of securities investment targets. This is a retail upgrade rational cognition, clear zero-sum game conspiracy theories, shake off the first step of persecution paranoia.
From the perspective of the development trend, the Internet economy in transition to digital is inevitable. Internet connection information to the virtual copy vest identity and information flow are the main form of connectivity violations of individual privacy, erosion of social integrity, help increase the costs, while the value of the Internet in a distributed database storage and digital asset that is: the reason is simple reconstruction of the way it all.
Facebook engage in Libra, the central bank do DECP, they are paving the way for the arrival of the digital economy. The value of Bitcoin and other digital assets is likely to become the next anchor the value of the digital economy of the world. This is not just wishful thinking outlook, the real work in the block chain of ecological projects and teams, understand what the value of that which precipitated Yes.
If the bull market for digital assets within the next three years to add a footnote, I would like to downstream innovation strength, capital markets, talent that landed applications and other industries will be activated, being open, public venture spectacular block chain will be officially staged. Believe that the new rules of the market order, and the development of new technology standards, new trading patterns of supply and demand, the new Internet economy collaborative approach will bring a big shake-up, when the new Ali Tencent, the new micro-blog, the new US group Volkswagen Comments new pieces based on soil trip might block chain of rebirth again. Not beef cattle, you say.
Not blindly optimistic, in essence, is really optimistic.
