5G is not a pseudo demand?

We first discuss a problem, that is, 5G in the end is not a pseudo demand?
In June 2019, when, CSDN (China IT professional community) ask such a question, the cost of "domestic (and the world in many countries) 4G deployments have not recovered, and now have to deploy 5G, if you think this is not counting cost? many people say that 4G enough, do you think this view? "
the question many people have asked myself in my heart, when we did not feel enough 4G, 5G whether it is pseudo demands? We are going to the key, to answer this question with demand. After listening to this lecture, I hope to help you improve your technique to determine whether a level pseudo needs.
5G is considered an important demand of pseudo-argument is, so far, only faster speed 5G, 4G and actually meet all of our requirements for speed today, including uploading pictures and videos, and watch high-definition video. As for online payment, the required speed even upload videos thousandth not to.
This view has merit, because almost all of the media coverage of 5G benefits are focused on speed, such as one minute can download a high-definition movies, and so on. So, 5G really just speeds faster? We usually do not feel slow 4G, under what circumstances can there be pain point?
To be fair, 4G obvious pain point really small, but we occasionally encountered.
If you want to increase the number of wireless access devices one to two orders of magnitude (i.e. 10 to 100 times), 4G concurrency and bandwidth is not enough.
In theory, 4G only support 100,000 devices per square kilometer. If the interconnection of all things (IoT) general development, while the case of this multi-device access to the Internet, 4G is difficult to meet. And all things Internet is the inevitable future, specific reasons, I will tell you in the next lecture.
Next, I want to say is that a technology can be applied, and success in business depends not only on the present and the near future foreseeable needs, but also on its ability to deliver in line with less energy, processing and more information stored in the commercial development of the axis of the trend, if met, will demand even been created.
In the early 50s of last century, IBM, which is the company that put the computer into millions of households, its second-generation proprietor Watson, saw this trend, but had not yet retired general manager of the old Watson is not recognized by Watson's views, he believes that something is to be calculated over the world, as long as five computers enough to use.
Old Watson proved wrong, because once the computer to achieve mass production, calculation, planning and statistics can be had by manual or mechanical device, you can use the computer to complete, which makes the unit capable of transmitting and processing information of great efficiency increase.
For example, in 1959, American Airlines (Today's American Airlines) pioneered the use of computer IBM developed Ticket Processing System (second year of service), when the whole industry is thinking, spend millions of dollars (millions of dollars 50s but a lot of money) to introduce such a monster, really need it, is not a pseudo demand?
However, just a year later, the entire Western aviation industry are commonly used by the computer booking, because the computer high efficiency in the processing and transmission of information, making the company does not use the technology simply can not compete. In other words, new technologies, if we meet say that the central axis, it will create new demand.
Of course, with the market demand, but also the technology is mature, whether supporting industries. Some technology is a prerequisite for other technologies, if they are not completed, the new technology behind my concern is not generated. Moreover, if the technology is not mature in advance, it is difficult to make a real product, it is likely to be regarded as a pseudo demand even speculation in the history of the development of communication, 3G will ever be regarded as a pseudo-demand.
From 1G to 2G from analog to digital circuit process, which is a huge technological progress, at the same time 2G development of Internet technology is rapid development.
In the 1990s, most parts of the world mobile communication 2G are good enough, we just play call, send a text message. Thus, while in the early 1990s, Qualcomm has developed a CDMA-based 3G technology, but could not find a good application.
Is it possible, through the first 3G network, think about how to develop an appropriate application of it? Japan and the UK have thought of this. KDDI in Japan as early as 2003, the first to bring 3G commercial operations, and in 2005 reached 20 million users, however, it was required in advance of actually not reached the popularity of 3G, supporting industries are not mature, so it moves Internet real popular 3G, 4G era is not rosy.
For example, when the high power consumption of the processor, battery life is very short, KDDI's 3G mobile phone, Internet if it was mostly music download service, can only stand for four hours and traffic charges was extremely expensive. This is required in advance the consequences of not met.
In 2003 Google specially sent a dozen men to study the Japanese market, found that young men have to spend about $ 200 per month on traffic charges. So why KDDI was eager to launch 3G services? There is a pain because it was unable to meet the 2G point, it is to download music. KDDI hope to launch 3G services because other applications to keep up with, but it is clearly too optimistic.
In the UK, Vodafone captured in 2000 and spent heavily in the 3G radio frequency band, but for the same reason and KDDI encountered, business did not do it, then coupled with the Internet bubble burst after the global IT industry downturn, Vodafone appear huge loss, so people are talking about at that time, 3G might be a pseudo-demand. Just as today many people feel the same pseudo-5G demand.
Of course, we know today, and later because of the low-power ARM processor, with the very power of the Android operating system, has doubled the capacity density of the battery, it can have a large memory capacity, with the cloud computing service , 3G mobile phones universal prerequisites was met.
Subsequently, 3G mobile phones appeared far as to make all kinds of applications have been developed based on mobile terminals, and also completed a cloud computing + mobile Internet closed. This is an example of technology to create a good market, and IBM Watson's success is exactly the same.
As 5G, the time point when it actually live in today and had computers first appeared, or when the 3G CDMA standard had just been born, based on very similar. On the one hand, there are some scenarios 4G does not meet, but at present such a scenario is not much, the key is associated with a lot of things and 5G still not quite ready.
On the other hand, the development of technology sometimes faster than we thought, such as the birth of IBM from 1952, the first commercial computer to computer in 1959 for airplane tickets, only 7-year interval from 2003 KDDI to launch 3G services, 2007 - the 2008 Apple and Google makes mobile Internet popularity, only four or five years.
So 5G become a hot topic at this point in time today, is not that pre-mature technology, or demand has to be inspired by it? Indeed it is, then we popularity from a real 5G, and the emergence of a large number of applications, as well as how far it?
From today, not too long, for example, after four or five years time, this cost will be recovered relatively quickly, allowing industry to continue to develop as the snowball, but not as early as 2000, Vodafone carrying huge debt .
Of course, for many people questioned about 5G costs, we can not be avoided, particularly with regard to the "cost of deploying 4G yet to recover, and now have to deploy 5G, whether in the burn" this view, we have a clear understanding and an objective judgment, after all, is not a sustainable business development is maintained by the burn. The answer to this question, I quoted some data given by academician Wu He Quan, by the way, academician Wu is the most senior Chinese Academy of Sciences in the field of communication.
According to the academician Wu, China spent about 700 billion yuan to 800 billion yuan investment in building construction 4G, 6, 7 years to complete construction, equivalent operators invested more than 10 billion per year. 4G whether to recover the cost, depending on how the calculation. Just from the Chinese mobile operators profit point of view, 4G network-date return is not high, but that does not mean losing money.
In only one move, the 2018 profit of about 120 billion yuan alone, than to invest in construction of 4G networks a lot of money to. In recent years, mainly due to mobile operators profit is not high, the unit tariff of mobile Internet traffic is around about 1/10 3G era, that is, if the operators do not cut prices, should have a huge profits.
But precisely because operators receive traffic charges is relatively low (about 1/3 of the United States), only to the country's mobile Internet industry developed. As state-owned enterprises, operators are obliged to play a social responsibility, on the one hand enhance scientific and technological competitiveness of the country, on the other hand to help the people.
5G to the era, we can not help but want to ask a question, its speed is fast, but the consumption flow too quickly, calculated in accordance with the flow of thousands of dollars a month is better than Internet access fees. In this regard academician Wu said that in the era 5G, operators still have to consider the overall social benefits to society can accelerate information technology industry to digital, and therefore fees will decline further.
Summary points:
5G is not a pseudo-demand. Although many people in 5G concept of speculation, but it really is a technical and commercial development to today's needs. A judge is not a pseudo-technical requirements, need to see that it is not in line with "less energy transfer, handling and storage of more information on the commercial development of the axis of the trend."
Historically, mature technology can create original unexpected market. 5G as well.
A technique to determine the point in time of the outbreak has arrived, and it depends on whether the prerequisites are met, as well as the potential market is large enough.
A lot of things, we must not only optimistic about the bad, but also not expensive, for 5G, its future traffic unit cost will not be as expensive as it is today 4G, although overall costs may have risen.