I believe that this year's Internet market has been witnessed by everyone. Many more friends have been laid off and asked to quit their jobs than in previous years. Nowadays, the difficulty of finding a good job has also skyrocketed.
My personal feeling is: this market is like stock prices, they have ups and downs, and it is currently in a recession, so a collapse is unlikely.
There are many opinions on this on the Internet, and I will share some today.
These are all personal opinions and are for reference only .
Experience
Author: Teacher Dongyue
Link: https://www.zhihu.com/question/595334979/answer/3015571046
I have been in the Internet industry for fifteen years and have been in Beijing for ten years. Having experienced the ups and downs of the Internet countless times, it can be said that I have deep feelings. Now, it is basically not as simple as a collapse. The decline of the Internet is 100% certain. Don't have any illusions.
As for what some people say, it doesn’t matter whether IT is the Internet, because IT is a broad term, including hardware and software, but Internet software positions account for 95% of the total number of IT jobs. Once the Internet software industry is shaken, the entire IT industry will also be shaken. First of all, the withdrawal of capital is doomed to the decline of the Internet. The Internet succeeds with capital and fails with capital. In the past, I heard about the success of Internet companies in financing every day. This year, I can’t hear about an Internet company financing.
Some people say that the second half of the Internet is the B side. Yes, the B side is almost over. In fact, there is no difference between the Internet and the C-side or the B-side. The inevitable decline of the Internet is a cyclical decision of the industry. But this is not winter. There is no such thing as a cold winter in the industry. The downturn in the industry is just a cyclical law.
Any industry has a ten-year cycle, and ten years is the golden period. After these ten years, it has basically become cool.
The industry cycle continues to rise in the first five years, which is also the prime time for the industry. In the next five years, it begins to decline and continues to fall to the bottom.
The first five years of the Internet were from 2012 to 2017. The Internet reached its peak in 2018, when APPs exceeded the 5 million mark. 22 years later, APPs plummeted by half.
I did a systematic survey and found that the peak year for Internet companies was 2015. There were 25,000 registered companies this year. It can be said that a large number of positions were released, and the recruitment volume also reached its peak this year. , the total recruitment volume I found that year exceeded 1.5 million job requirements. However, this cyclical pattern is obvious. After reaching the peak, the scale of Internet company registration has also declined year by year. By 2023, there will be basically no increase.
From a cyclical perspective, don’t have too high expectations for the Internet. The Internet, like real estate, has entered a downward cycle.
It’s just a matter of how long this down cycle lasts. It will not change in a short period of time, it will not change in one or two years, and it is unknown whether it will last for five years or ten years. But the glory of the past will never be the same again. Do you expect another spring? So far, there is still an industry that has entered a second spring after decline? The Internet is like a fifty-year-old person who has reached retirement age even if he has not retired. It is really unrealistic to expect it to return to its twenty-year-old youth!
The industry has a peak period. In fact, the best period for the Internet was in the 10 years from 2010 to 2020. The epidemic is not the root cause of the decline. The fundamental reason is that the golden period of the Internet has passed. From the analysis of the industry itself, the rise of the Internet is multi-faceted. On the one hand, the birth of smartphones is a great opportunity, bringing unlimited opportunities. On the other hand, policy dividends are released in large quantities, mass entrepreneurship and innovation, including the crazy entry of capital, This has led to the rapid development of the Internet, which has reached its peak in 2015.
The prosperity of the Internet is caused by a combination of factors, rather than simply thinking of it as a technology. The Internet is never a technology, it is just a service industry. In particular, the drive of capital plays a huge role.
The Apple App Store removed 440,000 apps in the second quarter of last year alone, most of which were abandoned apps that no one wanted anymore. Such a large number of removals also shows that a large number of Internet companies have gone bankrupt.
In August 2022, Tencent removed the Tencent Kandian App with 200-800 million monthly active users; "QQ Huateng" was also removed from the shelves; Huawei's intelligent translation software "Hua Petal Translator", which had been in operation for less than a year, was removed from the shelves; Sogou Search App is officially out of service... From January to August this year, a total of more than 60 apps from major Internet companies were suspended and removed from the shelves.
Similarly, the investment situation of Internet companies is not optimistic, and it has also shown a clear decline. This state was not caused in one year, but continued to decline.
A large number of apps from major manufacturers have ceased operations, which means that the same proportion of staff from major manufacturers will be laid off. Large companies no longer open new business lines, which means they no longer recruit. Not to mention small companies, this hope is even slimmer.
For some Internet industries, those that are mature have matured and have basically formed leading companies, while those that are immature have given up and cannot make much progress.
Looking at Internet recruitment, it only took ten years for Internet jobs to go from being in short supply to becoming seriously saturated.
The number of jobs is also declining. From the demand reaching 1 million in 2015 to 200,000 in 2020, the overall decrease is more than five times.
There are fewer and fewer small companies, and most of the recruitment is concentrated at the top. The threshold for new people to enter is getting higher and higher, and large companies need 985 to start. Even for 985 masters, it is extremely difficult to enter the Internet this year.
Some people benefit from academic qualifications and still have a chance to enter in 2022, but those who do not benefit from academic qualifications basically have no hope.
The training market is not so good either. It is bleak and there is insufficient market demand.
As for the next peak, it should appear during the metaverse period. Unfortunately, it is estimated that there will not be many positions in demand. No one knows when it will come.
As for chatGPT, a technology that will only eliminate jobs and even kill programmers, don’t even think about having any employment opportunities.
Train your muscles and skin externally, and train your breath internally. If you want to survive in the Internet industry, you increasingly need high abilities and high quality. This is no longer the past era.
The involution is serious and the energy spent is much greater than before. Be prepared if you want to enter this industry.
This is actually the case in any industry. When you sing and I appear, they all follow the cyclical rules of the industry. The same is true for the Internet. In ten years, Hedong will be in Hexi.
As for the next hot spot, the ten-year cycle of new energy has begun. Unfortunately, it is not able to absorb as many labor-intensive talents as the Internet. The new energy industry cannot support such high-level fresh graduates.
The Internet can no longer absorb so many people. 200 million people are already employed flexibly. The unemployment rate for fresh graduates this year has reached more than 20%, which is actually higher than what statistics may indicate.
A piece of mourning! Just like the calm after a storm, the Internet, like other industries, is lost in the crowd, and future wages will not have any advantage over other industries.
Calm down and roll it up. Sweep others away and you stay. If you have the chance, enter the next decade. If you are in your twenties and work hard for a few years, you may still have a chance. But with the Internet, don’t have any illusions.
Each era has its own industry. When I just graduated, the best industry was steel mills, which were more popular than the big Internet companies now. A few years later, steel mills also withdrew from the stage of history. Then came the glorious decade of real estate. It also disappeared. Then came the Internet decade, and now it has also entered a period of decline.
Every decade creates a trend, and every decade creates a hero of the era. It is universal in almost any industry. The current trend is new energy. In fact, new energy has been popular for several years. The big company that everyone will envy in the future is not BAT. This type of Internet companies include BYD, Tesla, and CATL, which are at the forefront of new energy.
The Internet has begun to become an ordinary industry, and it has completed its historical mission. No matter how much you save or don't admit this fact, nothing will change. Each of us is subject to the influence of current trends. If the trends are gone, where can we still have spring?
Maybe in a few years, when talking about programmers from large factories, they will be the same as workers tightening screws on Foxconn's assembly line. Oh, by the way, 20 years ago, Foxconn was also a large factory that everyone envied. A factory bigger than Tencent, Alibaba, and Huawei.
The only constant in this era is that it keeps changing!
It has changed from once in a hundred years to now every three years. Technology is constantly changing rapidly, and our generation will experience at least ten great changes in our lifetime. GPT is coming soon. It is only a part of the great changes, but its arrival will completely change the programmer industry.
Tragedy, for migrant workers, they will spend their whole lives just making a living, but their IT jobs have been ruined, so they can only continue to pray for the next industry to give them a living.
That's all. The above is what I have seen and heard as a fifteen-year veteran of the Internet, who has experienced the ups and downs. If you like it, thank you.
Data “speaks”
Author: jobs funix
Link: https://www.zhihu.com/question/595334979/answer/3014325065
I'm afraid so. It can also be seen from reits:
The interim report has also come out, but it still hasn’t improved, and the occupancy rate is still declining:
In the 2023 interim report of CCB Zhongguancun REIT, its average rent dropped by 7.72 yuan per square meter year-on-year; its average actual rentable area dropped by 27% year-on-year; the occupancy rate fell from 89.87% in the 2022 mid-term report to 67.84% in the 2023 mid-term report. It fell by 22.02%; its operating income fell by 23.77% year-on-year; net profit fell by as much as 80% year-on-year; the amount available for distribution fell by 42% year-on-year; and profit before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization fell by 45.5%.
According to the first quarter report, the occupancy rates of the underlying assets of Huaan Zhangjiang Everbright REIT and CCB Zhongguancun REIT were 70.57% and 68.47% respectively. The decline was relatively obvious and the pressure was evident.
On the day when the quarterly report was released, CCB Zhongguancun REIT once fell by more than 6.9%, and Huaan Zhangjiang Everbright REIT fell by more than 4.1%, which was higher than the average decline of the industrial park sector that day.
The infrastructure assets held by CCB Zhongguancun REIT are located in the Zhongguancun Software Park in the Shangdi area. The assets in the pool are Building 5 of the Internet Innovation Center (construction area of 82,000 square meters), Building 4 of the Collaboration Center (construction area of 32,000 square meters), Incubator Accelerator (construction area 53,000 square meters). The park where the assets are located gathers Lenovo (Global) Headquarters, Baidu, Tencent (Beijing) Headquarters, Sina Headquarters, Didi Headquarters, AsiaInfo Technology, iFlytek (Beijing) Headquarters, iSoftStone, Huashengtiancheng, Glodon, and IBM It has more than 700 well-known domestic and foreign IT corporate headquarters and global R&D centers, with strong scientific research capabilities.
Overall, the area has a superior geographical location, and the quality, stability and leasing capacity of tenants in the park are all at a relatively high level. However, as the Internet industry enters a stage of phased adjustment, the project is suffering from the pain of industry shifting.
As of December 31, 2022, there were 59 tenants in CCB Zhongguancun REIT infrastructure project, with an average rental area of 108,100 square meters and an average occupancy rate of 81.29%. In comparison, it can be found that the park experienced a loss of tenants in the first quarter of 2023.
at last
It is normal for the market to fall and rise, but now that the market is falling, there is no need to be too pessimistic. Maybe this is a good time to buy the bottom. Who can say for sure~
What do you think of this wave of market trends on the Internet?