This week's dreary bear market suddenly burst out of a XEN project.
On this project, we went through the process of getting news, not understanding it, not doing it, getting new information, discovering that it can be done, and rushing through it. Although I didn't get the profit from the first wave of information due to poor information checking and cognition, I did get a little bit of soup through analysis.
Many big names have already shared information related to this project. Here we also share some of our own views from the perspective of making money and gaming.
The market is so big that one can only see the leopard through the tube. One family’s opinion is DYOR.
Start doing it.
Introduction to XEN
From the perspective of making money, it means spending gas to mint tokens, claim the tokens and sell them after expiration, and call it a day.
We won’t go into more details about values and dreams, as other big guys have written in great detail.
Can I rush?
From the perspective of XEN tokens, there is output, no consumption, no positive externalities, and the project fork threshold is low, so the value analysis is basically gone.
However, the 40% gas consumption and a large number of KOL discussions and retweets on Twitter have proven its popularity, and it is basically positioned as a meme currency.
Will there be buyers after it is completed?
have.
Which Bodhisattvas are they?
(1) The coin speculator who is a bully will probably like it. This old man can hit any earth dog plate. Now the popularity is so high that ordinary earth dogs and golden dogs can’t compete with it. It’s for him. And the first batch of brothers did make money.
(2) New leeks, living Bodhisattvas. There is still some fresh blood in this circle. How can we grow without being cut twice?
Can you make money?
Calculate accounts.
Profit = Revenue - Cost.
The cost estimate of this project is relatively simple, mainly the total gas fees for claim ranks, claim tokens, transfers and currency sales. Based on gwei35, the cost is about 10u. Since the complexity of transaction processing is different, and the claimed token can be directly referred to CEX for sale, the cost structure of the entire fee is mainly concentrated in the claim ranks. Even if the gwei is higher later, it will not have an impact on the overall cost structure. Especially large, the single number cost is basically between 10~15u.
Income is more difficult to estimate. Revenue = quantity * price. According to the mechanism of this project, the quantity is mainly determined by four variables, of which we can only use the two variables rank delta and term as the basis for judgment. The faster you enter the venue, the more people will enter the venue later, and the larger the rank delta is, the more coins you will get. Therefore, the focus of the variable game of rank delta is everyone's ability to obtain information and cognitive differences. The sooner you get the information, the sooner you discover the nature of the game. The faster you enter the game, the more coins you get.
But those who come early will definitely be able to eat meat, but those who come late will have no soup? no. The quantity is also determined by the term variable. The game of term variables is very interesting. The shorter the term, the earlier you get the coins, but the amount you get is smaller. The longer the term, the more coins you will get, but if the people in front of you smash the market too much, the coins may not be valuable. Therefore, the variable term gives players a choice between taking more low-priced coins or fewer high-priced coins, and there is room for a certain cognitive gap game.
After talking so much, how much is the income?
have no idea.
does it matter?
It doesn't matter.
Because no one else knows either.
Therefore, from our perspective, this project is similar to an option-buying project in terms of income structure, with fixed costs and uncertain income. Due to the ridiculously high popularity, it is far from comparable to other native dogs or even golden dogs. Old dog gamblers should not be able to stand this temptation, and the early price should be able to resist it. Control the proportion of funds invested, and you can come in and win a prize.
What to do?
Rush early. The lower the ranks, the better.
What should I do if I'm late?
At the moment when you decide to rush, the ranks are basically determined, and the ranks delta cannot be changed. But due to the existence of the term variable, we can also try to analyze it to see if we can find some advantages of being a latecomer.
What strategies are there for the term variable?
Regardless of the current state of the game in the market, looking at the mechanism alone, it is essentially a choice between taking fewer high-priced coins and more low-priced coins, and determining which option can achieve higher income. If you are long, you can choose I want them all, but here you are faced with the choice of how many eggs should be put in each basket.
Let’s take a look at the specific strategies.
One day war god
1 day. See through the essence of MEME currency and sell early while taking advantage of the first wave of popularity. Judging from the results, the answer is the version of mint in the previous two days.
HODL
Time limit expired. This project is so interesting and invincible. This is the best gift for your future self. The project team still has the ability to get things done. Now who can say that this project will not be the next DOGE? to the moon! ! !
Mining
The multi-number operation strategy distributes the deadlines evenly to 1 ~ 30/100/300. It’s like depositing some money and getting some tokens to sell every day.
“ETF enhancement”
The multi-number operation strategy, which is optimized after forking, is somewhat similar to the ETF enhancement strategy in the stock market.
First get the term distribution of the entire market to set a tone. Then eliminate some obvious wrong answers and tune them a few days in advance based on some terms chosen by most people. From the results, it is equivalent to making a small bet on one-day Ares, value investing and other major time periods. Don't put your eggs in one basket (~~In the end, every basket was gone, wrong~~).
Follow the strategies posted by others
100/300 days.
Whether it is the official teaching guide or the earliest batch of reprinted tweets, the two options most frequently mentioned are 100 days and 300 days. The answer can be identified as the wrong version at the outset.
Except that one day cannot be moved earlier, for other deadlines, especially 100 days and 300 days, you should choose a date that is a little earlier. Because when deciding to enter the market, the ranks delta has been fixed, and the difference in the number of coins obtained one day earlier or one day later will not be particularly big. Then why not choose 99 days and 299 days to get coins one day earlier, or a few days earlier to avoid What about this wave of selling pressure?
Game of XEN
This part is a bit long. We will first briefly review what happened in chronological order, and then look at the choices made by each group of market players from the perspective of term variables.
At the time of writing this article, there are approximately 880,000 wallets participating in claim ranks. We divided this batch of wallets into ten batches according to their ranks, with approximately 8.80,000 people in each batch.
Let’s briefly review what happened in chronological order.
Take a look at what time these people entered the market, what was their level of FOMO when they entered the market, and what probably happened at that time?
Share our perspective.
Let’s start with the previous wave of data.
(The picture shows UTC time. For the convenience of everyone’s reading, the time below has been converted to UTC+8 time.)
The project opened mint at around 1 a.m., and the first batch of players started trading, and 8.80,000 wallets were minted in about 7.5 hours. Except for a few friends who have high-quality information channels, most people in the +8 area are asleep at this time.
The second group of people rushed from about 9 a.m. to about 4 p.m., which took 6.8 hours. Judging from the time spent, we can see that compared to the first group of people, we were already in a slightly FOMO mood and entered the venue a little faster. At this time, a group of big guys fren who first understood the project and fren who followed the trend and played with a few trumpets began to enter the market.
The third group of people rushed from about 4 p.m. to about 2 a.m. the next day, which took 9.9 hours. It can be seen that the entry speed has slowed down. why? The author of the project uploaded online is not the Google employee No. 21 mentioned in the publicity. By this time, various rights protection groups had already formed.
The fourth and fifth groups of people entered the venue from 2 a.m. to 10 a.m. the next day, and from 10 a.m. to 5:30 p.m. the next day respectively. It took 8 hours and 7.7 hours respectively. It can be seen that the pace of entry is faster than that of the third group of people. why? Because the currency has been listed on the exchange and the currency price has reached 0.0135, the first batch of numbers selected for one day can probably get more than 50,000 coins. Those with single numbers can earn more 675u, and those with less can also sell 300u. One day Ares takes off.
Of course, due to the first wave of market pulls, the earliest batch of currency speculators were also happy.
Fomo sentiment spread again. At this time, it no longer mattered whether the project author was Google employee No. 21, and the rights protection group was changed to a consensus group. If the people who participated in the first three batches did not know how much their income was, they would face uncertainty about their income. The fourth and fifth batches of investors can already use the income of the earliest players to enter the market and the current gas cost to calculate their static rate of return. Although the old Leeks fren all know that the static rate of return of the Ponzi game is a bubble, and calculating this number is not less risky, the new Leeks fren just like this and spread their hands.
The sixth group of people rushed from about 5:30 pm on the second day to about 6:30 am on the third day, which took 13 hours. From then on, the approach gradually slowed down. In fact, there is still a wave of opportunities to eat meat during this period. After the currency was listed on DEX in the morning, as expected, the currency price first rose and then spiraled into death. But the contract was listed on the exchange at night. At this time, if you can control your position and open a short order, you can lock in the next day's mint income and make a lot of money for free. Of course, the exchange may have also discovered this bug. There were many short sellers and few long sellers, and the contract was quickly closed.
The seventh to tenth batch of people are the ones who enter the market later. At this time, the entry speed is getting slower and slower, and the currency price has reached a relatively low position. The static rate of return for one day is all negative. Entering the market and choosing a day at this time is basically like a living Bodhisattva coming to give you money.
So is it completely impossible to do it at this time? uncertain. At least some players in the market voted for a choice that was not an obviously wrong answer. Although it is not yet time to reveal the answer to prove whether they are correct, I believe they made a choice that was different from other players, and they should have done a good job. A wave of my own calculations. If we enter the market again at this time, at least I will analyze whether their answers are reliable and whether they are worth copying. Their choices will be mentioned later when we talk about term games.
Game of terms
Next, let’s take a look at the term choices of each batch of players, and see if in the process, if they don’t catch up with the first batch to get on the bus, they can gain some advantages through the term game.
Let’s first feel the current overall market distribution. Out of these 880,000 addresses, more than 200,000 addresses have chosen the one-day Ares strategy. And most of them choose relatively short-term terms.
But was that the story from the beginning? Let's start with the first players.
The term with the most votes from the first batch of players is 100 days. It can be seen that most of the first batch of people who got on the bus were just for fun who followed the author's guide. Only more than 2,000 addresses chose to be the God of War for one day, and the other wave was the value party with 300 days and full dates.
Suppose we don’t catch up with the first group to get on the bus, but we can discover the advantages of the one-day Ares strategy at 9 o’clock in the morning on the first day through cognitive differences. Even if the overall ranking is around 9w, in the one-day competition, there are only 2,000 people ahead. There are multiple addresses. At this time, the leading one-day war god accounts for only about 2%. Choosing to join the one-day war god is considered early stage.
After the first batch of players entered the market, the players who chose to be Gods of War for a day, although they were not the first to place orders in the group, had the highest profit from their single numbers. But they are probably the first ones to make the most money from this project by making numbers in batches.
Of the 8.80,000 addresses that entered the second batch, 1.20,000 chose to join the one-day God of War strategy. At this time, there are still many people who choose 100 days and 300 days, and there are also many people who have maxed out their value.
Comparing the term distribution of the first group of players horizontally, we can see that more addresses chose to be God of War for a day, and fewer people chose the wrong answers of 100 and 300 days.
If the second batch of people enter the market, that is, they enter the market around 4 p.m. on the first day and join the one-day Ares strategy, then there will be about 1.40,000 addresses in total, and the overall sample has reached 17.70,000 addresses. It is not too late to say that it accounts for less than 10%, and this group of people did make money later. It can even be said that the main profits in the earliest wave of the market were made by this group of people.
About 1.60,000 of the third batch of players chose one day. Comparing the second batch of players horizontally, more addresses chose to join the one-day God of War strategy, and fewer addresses chose 100 and 300. The HDOL faction still maintains a similar proportion.
If you wait for the third group of people to enter the market before choosing to join the one-day God of War strategy, there will be about 30,000 addresses ahead, accounting for 11.2% of the total 26.60,000 addresses. This proportion is still not large, and this group of people also drank some soup later. Although there is no single number profit that the previous two groups of people could easily achieve by dozens or hundreds of times, the single number can still make a few dollars, about 30 to 50% profit.
When the fourth batch of players entered the market, they could already see the currency price, and 50,000 of the 8.80,000 addresses joined in one day. Say goodbye to value investing and be happy now.
If these players join for another day, there will already be 80,000 addresses, accounting for 22% of the total 35.40,000 addresses. At this time, the rankings are no longer particularly high. Some of this group of people have even profits and losses, and the group at the bottom should have small losses.
Starting from the fifth batch of players, the dumb money that chooses to join the one-day God of War strategy will gradually decrease. I am not going to post maps batch by batch here, but I will show the proportion of different batches of players in one day’s strategy to give you a feel.
That’s pretty much it for the discussion of one-day Ares strategy. It can be seen that although we cannot catch up with the first batch of mint ranks due to poor information and poor cognition, if we can find that there are some irrational groups in the choice of terms, we can still find some places where we can have soup through data support. . This can be regarded as some information advantages left to latecomers in the design of this project.
For those players who are particularly fomo, don’t be too anxious. You can think about it from another angle. Of the 8.80,000 addresses that first entered the market, only 2,000 chose one day. The other 8.60,000 addresses watched everyone eat meat. They couldn’t claim coins before the deadline, and they couldn’t drink soup, which was actually quite fomo.
Then there is a hole left in the front, which is the version answer chosen by players after the seventh batch. Although I haven't done too much analysis here, the votes cast by this group of players are 4 days. If I had to guess a reason, it might be that from a gaming perspective, the date of mint tokens is set to the 6th day after the start of the project, to block the door for players who previously chose the two deadlines of 7 days and 10 days. Try to get the most tokens before players can claim on the 7th and 10th days, and then rush ahead of them. Because the gas later came down and the cost also came down, the first players who chose this strategy might have room to drink.
Will there be room for game-blocking in future terms?
Probably not anymore. Since there are fewer and fewer people entering the game now, the rank delta has dropped sharply. Even if the players who come later choose the door-blocking strategy, they will get very few coins. Therefore, it should be difficult for gate-blocking strategies to appear again after XEN.
What can we do?
After talking so much, what can we do?
If you are a new leek, it doesn't matter if you play casually. Control your capital investment and participate in a few more projects. It doesn't matter if you get cut a few times. Difficulties that can't kill you will only make you stronger. If you are a big boss, you must have your own unique understanding and decision-making basis. If you are willing to give me some advice and exchange, thank you very much.
As an old leek caught in the middle, a good strategy to choose is to copy homework. Get the assignments (distribution data) submitted by players in each batch of the entire market, observe the changing trends of the distribution of different batches, and judge the current version answer based on the trend (1 day for the early batches and 4 days for the later batches), and then After eliminating some obviously wrong answers (100 days and 300 days, 1 day in the middle and late batches (the trend starts to decline)), you can hand in an assignment of your own. If you follow this idea and put your eggs in the basket, even if you don't catch up with the earliest batches to enter the market, you still have a chance to achieve a pretty good rate of return.
The term variables set by XEN in the mechanism design have brought some interesting games to this project, a bit like the classic experiment of choosing an average of 2/3 mentioned in game theory classes. Group selection has been adapting and evolving. In addition to making money, there are some interesting things.