Last trading week (September 11th to 15th), the egg futures market showed an unexpected rise. On September 15, many egg futures contracts rose sharply, with the 2310 contract rising by more than 5.6%. The main contract 2311 hit the daily limit twice during the session, and finally closed up 6%. Industry insiders believe that the sharp rise in egg futures is due to the large discount range during the peak season, rising raw material costs and stronger market expectations, which has led to a sharp rise in recent month contracts; on the other hand, the spot price remains strong. Looking forward to the market outlook, organizations said that it is difficult to continue the rising price of egg futures prices and reminded people to pay attention to seasonal factors.
Last Friday, egg futures prices rose strongly, leading the rise in the domestic product futures market. On that day, the main egg contract 2311 hit the daily limit twice during the session, and finally closed at the daily limit price of 4,647 yuan/500 kilograms, with an intraday increase of 6%. At the same time, contracts 2310 and 2312 followed suit, with increases of 5.63% and 4.64% respectively.
Regarding the "rocket" jump in egg futures prices, Wu Hao, an agricultural product researcher at Guotai Junan Futures, said that the core reason is that the discount range is large during the peak season, raw material costs rise, and market expectations strengthen, driving the sharp rise in recent-month contracts. On the one hand, strong product sentiment has driven raw material futures to continue to rise. The cost of eggs per kilogram has been close to 4,100 yuan/500 kilograms, and cost support has gradually moved up. On the other hand, it was still the peak season for stocking before the Mid-Autumn Festival. The price of pink eggs in Hebei was about 5,300 yuan/500 kilograms. The liquidity of the October contract was low. The November contract was regarded as a near-month contract, and the discount fluctuated greatly. Shows the action of correcting the discount.
In terms of spot prices, Hong Chenliang, senior analyst at CCB Futures, told reporters that in a traditional sense, after entering September, the weather gradually turns cooler, which is beneficial to the improvement of egg production rate. However, demand will increase after the summer tourist season and the start of school stocking needs are completed. Decline, the spot price will gradually enter the downward channel. This year, the spot price has remained at a high level for a long time, and the decline has not started yet. On the one hand, the Mid-Autumn Festival is relatively late this year, and the related stocking demand is still supported. The demand for family gatherings, gift-giving and dining out is worth looking forward to. On the other hand, although the number of chickens has been large since the second quarter of this year, the quality of eggs produced by chickens in some regions is currently low, the recovery in output is not as good as expected, and the spot price continues to be high.
Looking forward to the market outlook, organizers believe that the subsequent rise in egg futures will be difficult to continue, and it is necessary to pay attention to short-term seasonal factors.
"At a time when bullish sentiment is extremely high, we also need to pay attention to the fact that seasonal ups and downs still exist." Hong Chenliang believes that there may be a larger decline in demand after the Mid-Autumn Festival and the National Day, and the gradual launch of vegetables may also have an impact on the market. Eggs constitute a substitution effect, and considering that the number of stocks has increased year-on-year for five consecutive months from April to August this year, the expectation that the stock will continue to pick up in the future is still relatively high.
Hong Kong Lian Securities reminded in a research report that the supply and demand in the egg market are stable, and spot prices have remained stable for four consecutive days. Without taking into account emergencies such as the avian influenza epidemic, the supply of eggs has gradually increased. As the peak season stocking comes to an end, egg demand is likely to decline. At the same time, feed costs have fallen, and the support for egg prices has weakened.
Recently, the price of pink eggs has risen to an extremely high level this year due to the demand for high-quality gift boxes. Downstream dealers are afraid of high prices and are cautious in receiving goods. The price of pink eggs has stopped rising and stabilized. Downstream terminal consumers in the Hongdan market have limited acceptance of high prices, sales are still tepid, and there is a greater risk of price drops after the peak season.