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Text｜Liu Junhong
On the evening of July 26, Samsung released two new folding screen flagships, Z Fold 5 and Z Flip 5.
Samsung finally let go of its "obsession" and no longer uses the "U-shaped" hinge that the screen cannot close. Like many Chinese brands, it has embraced the "drop-shaped" hinge. The Z Flip 5 external screen is twice as large as the previous generation, while the Z Fold 5 is similar to the previous generation in terms of design language, and the hardware and software upgrades are more conventional.
"I'm quite disappointed with Samsung's new folding screen products this year. In the past, Samsung was the 'big brother' of folding screen mobile phones, but now domestic mobile phones have surpassed Samsung in terms of parameters and details." A "star fan" holding a Galaxy Z Fold 4 told Lightcone Smart after watching the press conference.
The reason behind it may not be that Samsung is "out of talent", but perhaps under the siege of many Chinese brands, Samsung's lead will become "disappeared by everyone".
In fact, folding screen mobile phones are gaining more and more weight in the top flagship product series of various manufacturers.
In the past year, mainstream brands have intensively released 13 "big folding" mobile phone products. This year, Huawei Mate X3 and vivo X Fold 2 were released in March and April, and Honor Magic V2 and Samsung Galaxy Z Fold5 were released in July. Next, the release of Xiaomi MIX Fold 3 and OPPO Find N3 is not far away.
After sorting out the main iterative products of a total of 12 key mobile phone manufacturers, we found that the newly released "big folding" mobile phones have little change in the size of the internal and external screens. However, the increase in battery capacity has generally occurred, the weight and thickness of mobile phones have been greatly reduced, and the material of the screen cover has basically been switched to UTG material. In addition, the hinge shape has all been switched to the "drop shape", and various manufacturers have also improved the cooling part of the mobile phone to varying degrees.
The intensive releases show that manufacturers have full confidence in the folding screen mobile phone track.
In 2022, Counterpoint Research analyst JENE PARK said that folding screen mobile phones are a brand-new design of smartphones, which bring more screen space and expand the application scenarios of mobile phones, especially in the fields of media, entertainment and work. more important.
Has the folding screen really ushered in its own iPhone4 moment?
Hardware technology upgrades drive product maturity
In the past year, various parameters of folding screen mobile phones have changed greatly, among which "thinning and thinning" is the most obvious trend.
During this year, the folding thickness of mobile phones has evolved from 13mm to 10mm; the weight of the whole phone has gradually decreased to less than 250g. Among them, the Honor Magic V2, with a folding thickness of 9.9mm and a weight of 231g, temporarily ranks first in the thinning and lightening of folding screen mobile phones.
From left to right are Samsung Z Fold4, Honor Magic V2 and Google Pixel Fold Source: Youtube
The thinning and lightening of folding screen mobile phones reflects the evolution of core components.
These components are the unique components of folding screen phones that are different from bar phones. The corresponding part can be seen from the BOM cost change of Samsung's first folding screen mobile phone (Galaxy Fold) compared with the flagship of the same generation (Galaxy S9+). Among them, the cost of mechanical/electromechanical structural parts, display modules and batteries has surged. When it comes to specific parts, the core components of a folding screen phone are hinges, batteries and flexible screens.
The hinge is a key component responsible for opening and closing the mobile phone and protecting the folded and deformed part of the screen. Currently, various manufacturers are actively reducing the number of required parts.
Where the part cuts are most evident is in the hinged support door panels. The hinge supports the door panel to support the screen and bear the external force of opening and closing the mobile phone. For this part, various mobile phone manufacturers chose to use rivets to improve the structural rigidity, which led to a surge in the number of parts in the hinge of the previous generation of folding screens. Huawei Mate X2 has 100 parts, OPPO Find N has 136 parts, and vivo X Fold has 174 parts.
Huawei Mate X3 hinge
The more parts, the more difficult it is to process, and the more difficult it is to reduce weight.
As a result, various manufacturers are looking for more suitable materials to act as supporting door panels, reducing the number of rivets to reduce the number of hinge parts.
The idea of Xiaomi MIX Fold 2 is to use carbon fiber material to reduce weight, and use injection molding process to replace rivets. The final number of hinge parts is 87. OPPO Find N2 uses aerospace-grade alloys to reduce weight, rearranges the hinge parts, and finally reduces the number of parts to 100. Vivo chose a composite material and redesigned the hinge part, reducing the final parts to 83. Huawei did not directly announce the number of hinge parts in the Mate X3, but the overall idea is that the "wing aluminum" material acts as the hinge door panel, and combined with the overall structure simplification, the final hinge weight is reduced by 8.4g.
And Honor's solution is more radical than other manufacturers. Starting from Magic Vs, Honor has abandoned the rivets. Use carbon fiber composite material as a supporting door panel, and add a metal support at the weak point. The combination of the two reduces the number of parts in the supporting structure of the hinge from 92 to 4. On the Magic V2, Honor maintained the previous generation’s route, replacing the material of the supporting door panel with a higher level of shield steel. However, it still needs time to verify whether Glory's route is correct.
Honor magic V2 hinge uses "shield steel"
In terms of batteries, to improve energy density, silicon-carbon anode batteries are landing in the mobile phone industry.
Since the folding screen is compared with the bar machine, the screen display area is almost doubled. This also puts forward higher requirements on battery capacity.
However, limited by the internal space of the mobile phone and the performance limitations of the current lithium battery, the battery capacity of folding screen mobile phones of various manufacturers cannot be doubled. For example, Mi 12S Ultra is 5000mAh, and MIX Fold 2 is 4500mAh. The Huawei P60 Art is 5100mAh, while the Mate X3 Collector’s Edition is 5060mAh.
Folding screen mobile phones are more urgent than bar phones in terms of improving battery energy density.
"The potential of graphite anode materials is close to the limit, and the innovation of anode materials is the trend we see now." Cao Gong, an expert in the field of Honor products, said in a media interview in March this year, "Compared with graphite anodes, the limit of silicon anodes is Its 10 times, the silicon carbon negative electrode can theoretically directly increase the energy density of the battery by an order of magnitude."
The direction is clear, and the rest is the implementation of technology.
At the beginning of this year, Honor brought it into the mobile phone field (Magic 5) for the first time, realizing large-scale commercial use. Subsequently, Huawei quickly followed up on the Mate X3 Collector's Edition and P60 Art.
At present, Honor has also introduced a silicon-carbon negative battery (Qinghai Lake battery) in the folding screen mobile phone. Although the battery capacity of the Magic V2 (plain leather version) has not increased compared to the previous generation (5000mAh remains unchanged), the thickness of the battery has been reduced to 2.7 mm. The unfolded thickness of the mobile phone is reduced to 4.7mm, which is thinner than the thickness of the iPhone battery.
In the future, with the further development of battery technology, silicon-carbon anode batteries will be improved and adopted by more and more mobile phone manufacturers. Thinner and larger batteries will continue to emerge, and the battery life of folding screen phones will become more and more guaranteed.
On the screen, the mainstream material of the screen cover is switching from CPI (transparent polyimide) to UTG (ultra-thin flexible glass cover). In addition to Honor, Huawei, Xiaomi, OPPO, vivo and other mobile phone manufacturers have chosen UTG as the cover material.
The crease is a shortcoming that every folding screen mobile phone can't avoid being discussed. The existence of creases is due to the tensile stress and compressive stress on the screen material caused by folding the screen. Under the influence of stress relaxation, mobile phone screens are more prone to creases and cracks.
Therefore, as the outer layer material for protecting the screen, the screen cover needs to have a certain degree of hardness, scratch resistance, good flexibility and recovery. In the previous solutions, due to the high mechanical properties, easy production and low cost of CPI material, folding screen manufacturers choose to use CPI as the cover glass.
However, as an organic polymer material (plastic), CPI material has the disadvantages of low hardness, scratch resistance, and obvious creases. A mobile phone enthusiast complained about the light cone smart: "I bought the MIX Fold for the first time. After using it for a short time, I found that the creases are too serious. It feels like a loss to buy it for 10,000 yuan."
On the UTG side, in 2020, Samsung introduced the UTG cover in the Galaxy Z Flip, and then insisted on the UTG route unwaveringly. Due to UTG's light transmittance, flatness, better appearance, and more wear-resistant and heat-resistant features, it quickly opened up the gap with CPI materials. The folding screen mobile phone using UTG is slightly better than the CPI material in terms of look and feel.
At the same time, as a panel manufacturer, Samsung quickly clamped down on UTG's supply chain. From the exclusive supply of SCHOTT, a small amount of Corning will be introduced in 2021, breaking the momentum of SCHOTT's dominance. On the other hand, Samsung also controls the advanced production process of UTG. From the path of domestic folding screen manufacturers choosing UTG, "earn a lot of money".
OPPO Find N and vivo X Fold, two "novice works", purchased Samsung's panels and directly selected UTG. Xiaomi Mix Fold 2 has also joined the UTG camp after purchasing Samsung's panels.
On the other hand, Honor and Huawei insist on using domestic panels. Among them, Honor is still sticking to the CPI route. Huawei used domestic UTG on Mate X3, but under the influence of comprehensive factors, the production capacity was seriously insufficient. Huawei Mate X3 was once hyped as "electronic Moutai".
"The goods are scarce, and most of the channel operators are not qualified enough to distribute the goods," said a mobile phone channel operator to Guangcone Smart. 4000."
In the future, with the expansion of domestic UTG production and the replacement of foreign technology by domestic mature technology, folding screen mobile phones are expected to meet more shipment needs.
The UTG production process can be divided into two methods: one-time forming and two-time thinning. Among them, the one-time molding method can be divided into float method, overflow method and narrow slot down-draw method, which directly process glass raw materials into cover plates. The technology is difficult, but the production cost is low and the product yield is high. The technology is mainly mastered by Corning, NEC Glass, Schott and Asahi Glass.
The secondary thinning method is a process of thinning again on the basis of the formed glass original sheet. The disadvantage is that under the current technical level, the processing cost is high and the product yield is low.
As Huawei Mate X3 debuted with domestic UTG cover plates, domestic UTG manufacturers such as Saide Semiconductor (supplying moto razer), Kaisheng Technology, and Dongxin Optoelectronics (supplying vivo x flip) are gradually capable of mass production, and more domestic manufacturers After participating in the supply of folding screen mobile phone panels, folding screen mobile phones will start to optimize the supply chain to further reduce production costs.
From the changes in the core components, the folding screen mobile phone has found the right direction and is developing in the direction of technological maturity. The folding screen mobile phone in 2023 is getting rid of the limitation of hardware shortcomings.
So at the software level, what changes will happen to the folding screen mobile phone in 2023?
Strengthen the "productivity" attribute, but the software adaptation is almost meaningless
If you want to ask where is the biggest gap between folding screen mobile phones and candy bar mobile phones? Probably productivity.
"The purpose of buying a folding screen mobile phone is to facilitate my work," Ah Jing (pseudonym) told Guangcone Smart. "The work of the newspaper office is often very urgent, but it is too inconvenient to take out a laptop on the subway. Since last year, no A few colleagues have also chosen folding screen mobile phones as their main phones."
If the folding screen mobile phone is only improved in terms of image, it is not enough to draw a clear line with the bar machine. But if the folding screen mobile phone can use a large screen to meet the scenes that the bar machine cannot support, a qualitative change will come.
Enhancing the software experience and improving productivity attributes are the focus of the current major folding screen mobile phone manufacturers.
Samsung has improved the taskbar function on the just released Z Fold 5, which allows users to quickly switch frequently used applications. Added two-handed drag and drop, which allows users to drag an element with one finger, such as a picture from the Photos app, and open a different app with another finger.
Samsung Galaxy Z Fold5
In contrast, Samsung's evolution is still "somewhat conservative", while domestic brands are more innovative and exploring in improving productivity.
In terms of text reading and editing, the folding screen mobile phone in 2023 can support the design of left and right columns, so as to maximize the advantages of the large screen. Realize the functions of adjusting font, size and thickness, changing text color, numbering, etc., and can also support inserting audio and video.
The difference is mainly reflected in the preference of interaction design. The most obvious is that the input interaction of various mobile phone manufacturers has become more professional.
Compared with vivo X Fold2, Huawei mate X3 supports more handwriting experience. Vivo handwriting requires a special area, which cannot overlap with the text. On the other hand, Huawei can directly select handwriting input, which supports functions such as modifying colors and strokes, marking text parts, and adding reference lines. It can hardly require other note-taking software to meet all handwriting needs. Honor has added more support for the stylus. Both the inner and outer screens of the Magic V2 support the stylus (the stylus comes standard with the Supreme Edition), allowing users to draw, write and edit better on the phone.
In addition to text editing, the work scenarios often encountered on mobile phones also include online meetings. However, the adaptation of folding screen mobile phones to third-party conference software is a bit uneven.
In theory, online meetings are an advantageous scenario for folding screen phones. The camera needs to be turned on, the folding screen only needs to bend the screen to 90°, and the bar machine needs to find a place to stand the phone. But up to now, the optimization of conference software by various mobile phone manufacturers has not been fully covered.
In the Tencent meeting, the vivo X Fold2 supports the hovering function, the meeting is displayed on the top of the screen, and the touchpad and console are below. However, Huawei Mate X3's support for Tencent conferences is not ideal, and there is no hovering adaptation for the time being. In the WeChat voice function scenario, almost all models do not support hovering.
Such a situation, or because the current penetration rate of folding screen mobile phones is not high, third-party applications are not willing to take the initiative to deeply adapt. According to Omdia data, the current penetration rate of folding screen mobile phones is only about 1%. Before the active depth adaptation of third-party applications, if the folding screen is to be easy to use, it must rely on the three axes of small windows, split screens, and parallel horizons.
Among them, the small window and split screen functions are well supported by various manufacturers, and the specific nuances are mainly reflected in the operation logic.
Honor's split screen and small window functions
The Parallel Vision function is to allow the same application to be displayed on a split screen. Realize watching the e-commerce live broadcast, while opening the search bar of the same platform to compare prices or view detailed product information. After the first launch of the Parallel Vision function by Huawei, it was quickly followed by other manufacturers.
Huawei Parallel Vision Development Manual
Currently, the adaptation of the Parallel Vision function to common applications cannot be fully covered.
Take vivo X Fold2 and Huawei Mate X3 as a reference. Folding screen mobile phones are currently unable to cover all commonly used software. For example, in audio-visual entertainment applications, vivo X Fold2 does not support Douyin and Kuaishou. On Youku, Tencent Video, and Himalaya, neither phone supports it. In the news application, both phones also do not support Sohu News and Tencent News.
In the future, as the number of users increases, the application adaptation of folding screen mobile phones will become better and better.
After the commonly used software is fully adapted and the productivity attributes are fully released, the folding screen mobile phone is expected to usher in the "iPhone4 explosion moment".
Folding screen mobile phones are heading towards the "iPhone4 moment"
Although the current folding screen is not necessarily the mainstream form of future mobile phones, it must be a diversified development direction.
Shipment volume is a "hard indicator" of market prosperity, and folding screen mobile phones are becoming the next growth engine for various mobile phone manufacturers.
In recent years, the global consumer electronics market has continued to slump. According to IDC data, global smartphone shipments in 2022 will only be about 1.21 billion units, the lowest record since 2013. But focusing on the segmented track, the shipments and scale of folding screen mobile phones are growing rapidly.
In the first quarter of 2023, China's smartphone market shipped approximately 65.44 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 11.8%. However, the shipments of domestic folding screen products bucked the trend and rose, with shipments reaching 1.02 million units, a year-on-year increase of 52.8%, and strong growth is expected in the future.
According to Counterpoint Research, global foldable smartphone shipments are expected to increase by 52% year-on-year in fiscal year 2023 to 22.7 million units, and are expected to grow to 26 million units in 2024. It is estimated that by 2025, folding screen mobile phones will account for 40% to 50% of the high-end market.
The rapid growth of folding screen mobile phone shipments, in addition to the technological progress mentioned above, the continuous price drop is also injecting more vitality into the folding screen mobile phone market.
On the cost side, the manufacturing cost of folding screen mobile phones has dropped significantly. Since each manufacturer seldom specifies the price of accessories, we choose the flexible screen as the core component of the folding mobile phone as the frame of reference. Referring to Omdia's analysis of 7.6-inch screens in June 2021, the price of screen modules is expected to drop from US$124.21 to US$68.98 in 2021-2025.
The reduction in manufacturing costs can also be clearly seen in product pricing strategies.
According to Canalys data, the global average selling price of folding screen mobile phones will drop from more than US$2,000 in 2019 to around US$1,500 in 2021. Subsequently, the product prices of domestic manufacturers have been further lowered, and most of the initial selling prices have entered within 10,000 yuan. The intergenerational price center of folding screen mobile phones has an obvious downward trend.
Under the competition of many manufacturers, the competition pattern of China's folding screen market has changed from Huawei occupying half of the country to a multi-power hegemony pattern, and the trend of "counterattack" by latecomers is obvious.
According to Counterpoint’s statistics from January to May 2023, among the ten best-selling folding screen mobile phones in the Chinese market, OPPO Find N2 Flip won the top spot with more than 190,000 shipments and a market share of 14.8%. Huawei Mate X3 shipped 101,400 units, ranking second with a market share of 7.8%.
As the price continues to drop and the price/performance ratio gradually increases, the price of folding screen mobile phones is gradually no longer "unbearably expensive". More and more "early adopters" are also using folding screen mobile phones to show their aesthetic personality.
"Customers who have recently visited the store are more willing to play with folding screen phones. There are also many customers who deliberately go to offline stores of different brands to try them out before choosing a phone." An offline mobile phone store operator told Light cone intelligence.
In the future, with the gradual penetration of folding screen mobile phones in consumers' cognition, quantitative changes will lead to qualitative changes, and the time for folding screen mobile phones to explode is getting closer and closer.
epilogue
In the summer of ten years ago, the iPhone 4 designed by Jobs ignited the global smartphone market overnight, and the smartphone, which has been developed for many years, was accepted by the public and became the mainstream.
The success of the iPhone 4 may not be a crushing technological innovation, but the optimization of many details, the retina screen, skeuomorphic icons, Jobs' design aesthetics, the humanized operation logic of ios, and the ecological environment of the mobile Internet determine the success.
Today's folding screen mobile phone is like the eve of the explosion of smartphones. With the following intensive press conferences, fiercer competition and more product choices, folding screen mobile phones are about to complete the explosion from 0 to 1, ushering in their own iPhone4 moment.
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