After announcing in 2016 that he would return to the center of the Internet stage in three years, Zhang Chaoyang has been actively active on various social media for a long time, with an attitude of "actively coming out". Then Changyou delisted from the U.S. stock market, Sogou "sold itself" to Tencent, and a series of shrinking actions seemed to be gradually moving away from the hustle and bustle.
In the past three years, Sohu's core goal is to focus on making money and gradually get out of the "trough period". Judging from the current performance, Sohu's profit target has basically been achieved.
Picture from Canva can draw
profit again
Recently, Sohu released its annual report for the 2022 fiscal year. According to US GAAP, it recorded a total loss of US$17 million for the year, and the non-US GAAP net profit attributable to Sohu was US$2 million, achieving three consecutive years of profitability. In terms of business, Sohu's brand advertising revenue in 2022 will be US$103 million, and online game revenue will be US$585 million. From the perspective of revenue structure, the game business still occupies the bulk, and the advertising business has been cut by more than half after "losing Sogou", and it is already difficult to "compete" with the game business.
From the perspective of profitability, in the three years from 2020 to 2022, under non-GAAP, Sohu achieved US$51 million, US$79 million, and US$2 million respectively. Three consecutive years of profitability is undoubtedly a cause for celebration for this "losing for many years" enterprise. But judging from Sohu's own situation, it still hasn't completely escaped the fate of being "trapped" and "marginalized".
First of all, Sohu is still not out of the trough. Calculated according to US GAAP, Sohu lost a total of US$17 million last year. Although there are many factors contributing to this, such as the contraction of advertising business and the decline of game business, there is no doubt that Sohu is still struggling on the "edge of profit and loss". In addition, last year Sohu's overall revenue declined, and now the only game business that can support the market is the game business. The advertising business is limited to Sohu's own size and influence, and its actual effect can only be said to be barely maintained, which is difficult. To achieve "circle breaking and fission", the growth is extremely limited.
Secondly, from the perspective of the industry situation, the Internet's "bright era" is over, and it will be difficult for Sohu to make any big waves on the basis of its existing business. For so many years, from games to search to live broadcast, from social networking to content, Sohu has basically never missed it, but it has not been able to break out of the circle and suffered a temporary loss. But now the "Internet tide" has gradually ebbed with the rectification of the past few years, and the old players are trying their best to rush to the next era. For Sohu, which has "not much capital", it seems that there are not many such opportunities.
When facing the explosive ChatGPT before, Zhang Chaoyang calmly replied in his own program: "Don't come to a company without this ability because of this trend, and then consume a lot of your own resources, and you don't get anything in the end. , we still need to be more cautious.” Industry insiders believe that the reason why Zhang Chaoyang is so calm about ChatGPT is not only because he is “knowledgeable”, but more importantly, he knows that without the search engine, it will be difficult for Sohu to participate in such an application-level Out of the air.
The gaming business is struggling alone
As mentioned above, the game business accounts for the vast majority of Sohu's annual revenue, but judging from the current situation, it is difficult for the pure game business to support Sohu's overall growth. According to financial report data, Sohu’s game revenue in the fourth quarter was 121 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 18%. This business, which accounts for more than 75% of the total revenue, has both declined year-on-year. For Sohu, it is tantamount to drawing salary from the bottom. This means that relying on the game business to maintain revenue may become more and more difficult to sustain.
On the one hand, the high gross profit of the game itself continues to be repeatedly used as a "panacea" for Sohu's profitability. According to the financial report data disclosed by Sohu, the gross profit margin of Sohu’s online game business in the fourth quarter was both 84% under GAAP and non-GAAP. Both remain unchanged. The full-year gross profit margin of the online game business has declined slightly, from 86% in 2021 to 84%, and remains at a high level.
在高毛利的基础上，搜狐在面对去年广告市场下滑、外部宏观冲击的背景下，仅仅通过削减营业费用就可以轻松实现“降本增效”。四季度，搜狐公司在美国通用会计准则营业费用为1.30亿美元，较2021年同期下降10%，较上季度下降13%。也许正因为游戏业务如此赚钱，因此搜狐才捉急忙慌地将畅游从美股私有化，然后将之变成全资子公司为公司输血。实际上，张朝阳对于利用游戏业务盈利从来都不讳言，他曾说：“畅游的钱，拿过来给搜狐用不就完了。”其对游戏业务的态度，从中可见一斑。
另一方面，搜狐倚重的老IP增收效果开始边际递减，搜狐陷入不增加营销就难以“增收”的境地。针对游戏业务的下滑，搜狐对外表示，主要是由于《小浣熊百将传》、《天龙八部》等老游戏的自然下滑。至于环比减少，则是由于第四季度《天龙八部》的促销活动减少，并且第三季度推出的新游戏《黎明之海》表现也开始下降。
据搜狐披露的数据，由于推出版本更新和性能提升，第四季度搜狐旗下游戏公司畅游的PC游戏平均月活数量为230万，同比增长11%，环比增长6%，季度付费用户为90万，同比增长2%，环比下降10%。相较于PC游戏，畅游移动游戏用户的下滑数量更为明显，平均月活为180万，同比下降30%，环比下降31%，季度付费用户为40万，同比下降24%，环比下降29%。
从数据不难看出，在持续吃了多年的老IP红利之后，如今这条路也不再好走，而依靠游戏来支撑起搜狐这座大厦，则未免过于沉重了。
广告离不开张朝阳
在游戏业务之外，支撑搜狐的另一大业务就是品牌广告了。财报显示，去年搜狐的品牌广告业务在1.03亿美元，其中四季度有2900万美元，同环比分别减少14%、12%。从去年的宏观大环境来看，广告业务取得这样的成果，多少也算难能可贵，而这其中张朝阳个人的影响力在其中的作用不可忽视，而且这种影响力还辐射到了其他业务领域。
一来，搜狐通过充分挖掘张朝阳的IP价值，打造了一系列专业的行业盛会，吸引各类品牌广告商的入驻。比如，搜狐在近些年打造了一些专精的媒体峰会如搜狐财经峰会、搜狐新闻马拉松、中国无人机影像大赛、搜狐科技峰会、搜狐时尚盛典等；张朝阳还亲自出境《张朝阳夜跑二环》以及搭档周鸿祎、俞敏洪等参与《星空下的对话》等直播活动录制。
这些活动在增加张朝阳曝光的同时，也为搜狐带来了更多的人气，尤其是在马云、马化腾等大佬纷纷“归隐”的情况下，他们的“出境”更能带动相关领域的话题度，这种话题度对于“沉寂”的搜狐而言似乎不可或缺。以财经峰会来说，搜狐财经峰会最早就源于2009年成立的搜狐企业家论坛，自2019年搜狐将其升格为年度财经峰会之后，逐渐成长为搜狐年度品牌活动，与会的很多企业家都算是张朝阳的朋友，张朝阳的“个人因素”在其中不可忽视。
二来，依托张朝阳的个人能力，向科学直播等领域做延伸，打开其直播业务的知名度。比如，张朝阳把千帆直播的英语课程转向搜狐视频，同时开设超过百余节的物理课—《张朝阳的物理课》，凭借深入浅出的物理学解读，《张朝阳的物理课》成为当下最火热的知识类IP迅速破圈，从玩票到正业，《张朝阳的物理课》从质疑再到好评，不经意间栏目订阅量已经达到了18.58万，播放量超过了1600万。
随着《张朝阳的物理课》出圈，张朝阳还正式将其结集成册，正式对外开售。用张朝阳自己的话说：“本来是自己的爱好，结果因为太出圈，就变成了公司的业务。”而在物理课等科普视频出圈之后，张朝阳进一步增加了类似的科普方面的知识类科普直播内容，试图为其价值直播打开更多的空间。因此，不论从那个角度来看，张朝阳本人对其广告业务以及其他业务都有相当的带动作用的。
搜狐亟待“去魅”张朝阳
对于日渐“边缘化”的搜狐而言，除了依靠张朝阳之外，似乎也没有什么太好的选择。但从公司角度来说，与创始人绑定太深、IP化太强并不是好事。
一方面，从比较依赖张朝阳个人能力和关系的广告及其他业务来看，张朝阳本身对公司业务的影响相对有限。数据显示，2022年搜狐的广告收入为1.03亿美元，而其他业务仅有0.46亿美元营收，总体占比并不算大。从长远来看，后期广告的收入增长更加取决于广告市场的整体恢复情况，张朝阳的作用只能说是“锦上添花”。
其他业务方面比如直播，一旦这个业务要规模化就必然走向平台化，张朝阳个人色彩反而会走向淡化。单从行业来看，当下直播领域的“虹吸效应”是非常强的，几乎是“快抖B站”独霸的局面，其他平台的直播即使强如阿里、百度，其直播尚且远不如前者，更何况流量优势不如百度、阿里的搜狐。因此，即便是张朝阳带动搜狐的视频直播实现了破圈，但其能否就此打开局面仍旧很难说。
另一方面，从公司层面来说，张朝阳的“重新振作”固然是好事，但更为重要的是搜狐需要更多的“内部人才”出圈而不仅仅是张朝阳。
在张“不务正业”的那些年，搜狐内部的济济人才如古永锵（优酷创始人）、龚宇（爱奇艺创始人）等都相继离开了搜狐，分别另起炉灶独立发展，也都取得了不错的成绩。可见，搜狐并非吸引不到人才，而是在早年没有使用好人才，这才出现了畅游CEO王韬走后搜狐游戏长期“吃老本”的情况。
而今随着曾经的“左膀右臂”搜狗CEO王小川功成身退，如今能够在外界留下名字的搜狐人，似乎就只有一个张朝阳了。从这个角度上来说，一味地“营销”张朝阳，或许只会强化“搜狐等于张朝阳”的标签，透支搜狐自身的成长性和想象力。