Table of contents
"AI+Education" Continues to Deduce
Where does the wind come from?
At the end of last year, OpenAI launched ChatGPT, setting off an AI boom, sweeping the capital market, and the "AI+" market started. .
Education, as a key scenario for the application of "AI+", has once again received favor and attention. Since the end of April, the stock prices of HKUST Xunfei, Shengtong, Jiafa Education, Guoxin Culture and other companies have risen and shown a trend of rapid growth.
Is "AI+education" the next trend in the industry, or another false fire of the concept of capital hype?
"AI+Education" Continues to Deduce
In this round of "AI+" market, the education sector has received more attention and favor after a long absence.
Minsheng Securities divides the application of "AI+education" into four directions, one is education informatization, including intelligent hardware, software, solutions, etc.; the other is AI empowering online education; the third is AI improving the efficiency of offline education; the fourth is AI course training. Correspondingly, most of the representative companies in the four directions have seen their stock prices rise under the influence of this round of market conditions.
From April 25th to June 19th, the stock price of HKUST Xunfei rose from 58.76 yuan to 75.6 yuan, an increase of nearly 30% in the range; the stock price of Jiafa Education rose from 16.5 yuan to 20.8 yuan, an increase of 26.04% in the range; Guoxin Culture The stock price of Chuanzhi Education rose from 10.56 yuan to 14.43 yuan, an increase of 36.65%; the stock price of Chuanzhi Education rose from 14.71 yuan to 16.52 yuan, an increase of 12.3%; the stock price of Shengtong shares rose from 5.94 yuan to 9.66 yuan, an increase of 62.63% in the range %.
In addition to the outstanding performance in the capital market, it is different from the previous "behindsight" of the education industry. The upsurge caused by ChatGPT this time is the first to promote the implementation of the education industry under the layout of leading companies in the industry. On May 5 this year, Netease Youdao released a "spoiler" video of an AI oral teacher developed based on the "Ziyue" model, which can not only provide an open chat scene, but also quickly generate a report after the conversation is over; on May 6 On the 1st, HKUST Xunfei Xunhuo Cognitive Big Model was released and applied to its T20 series AI learning machines to realize human-like correction of Chinese and English compositions and oral accompanying dialogue exercises; Xueersi announced that it is conducting self-study mathematics The development of the large model will be named MathGPT.
In addition to the leading institutions, some vertical companies that subdivide the track are also thinking about more possibilities for the combination of AI and education. For example, Golden Education in the field of accounting training launched the AI public exam learning product "Lingkou Public Exam AI680" in early June; the online language learning platform Duolingo's Roleplay has been able to conduct multiple rounds of dialogues and interactions with learners to achieve correction. False and suggested double function.
From this point of view, whether it is stock price growth or product implementation, the current round of "AI+education" market is still developing. Judging from the currently released applications, the application of AI to education scenarios mainly revolves around three key goals. One is to strive to achieve personalized tutoring with "thousands of people and faces"; the other is to restore the real scene, so that machine interaction will become infinitely real. The third is to use big data analysis to improve learning efficiency. Under such a framework, the application prospects of the combination of AI and education are indeed worth looking forward to.
The "AI+education" market continues to deduce, what is the logic inside?
Where does the wind come from?
The current round of "AI+education" market is mainly driven by three factors: technology, policy and demand.
In terms of technology, a number of AI technologies continue to advance, which will accelerate the combination with educational scenarios. At the end of last year, OpenAI launched ChatGPT, which started a wave of AI concepts. In March of this year, the newly launched ChatGPT-4 made breakthroughs in the semantic analysis of text. Compared with before, GPT-4 can not only understand language more accurately, but also process images. Especially focusing on the combination with educational scenarios, according to reports, GPT-4 has demonstrated efficient information processing capabilities in various large-scale standardized tests. GPT-4 has achieved close to full marks in the GRE and SAT exams, and surpassed 90% of candidates in the BAR bar exam. This undoubtedly gives "AI+education" more imagination. It can be said that GPT-4 has initially possessed the knowledge and literacy required for exam counseling.
Soochow Securities pointed out that education is one of the most direct and logical scenarios for the application of AI. The education industry has a mature industrial informatization foundation, user base, and underlying data resources, and the application direction of AI happens to be "high-frequency iteration + individualized needs". Whether it is maturity or user demand characteristics, the education scene is almost perfect It perfectly fits the direction of AI application. Key technical indicators affecting "AI+education", such as deep learning, AI cloud services, AI maker and teaching kits, and generative AI, will mature within 10 years. The development of technology is expected to further expand the growth curve of the "AI+education" market, bringing more possibilities for personalized education.
In terms of policy, on June 13 this year, the Central Office and the State Office issued the "Opinions on Building a High-quality and Balanced Basic Public Service System". Improve teachers' digital literacy and information technology application capabilities; build a national basic education management service platform to improve digital management level and management efficiency. In addition, the "Opinions of the Ministry of Education and 18 Departments on Strengthening Science Education in Primary and Secondary Schools in the New Era" and the "Action Plan for Deepening the Teaching Reform of Basic Education Curriculum" both emphasize the exploration and use of artificial intelligence, virtual reality and other technological means to improve and Strengthen experimental teaching and select a group of characteristic high-level science education and artificial intelligence education primary and secondary school bases. At present, the policy has clearly expressed support for the AI education scenario, basically eliminating the policy risk of "AI+education".
In addition to policy documents to guide the direction, the government seems to be preparing to allocate budget to support the exploration of AI education applications. In August 2022, the Ministry of Science and Technology issued the "Notice on Supporting the Construction of a New Generation of Artificial Intelligence Demonstration Application Scenarios", and intelligent education was included in the first batch of demonstration application scenarios. Minsheng Securities believes that under the dual catalysis of AI technology empowerment and policy support, the education industry is expected to usher in important changes in fundamentals and commercialization prospects.
The driving force on the demand side is also a driving force that cannot be ignored. Achieving inclusiveness and fairness in education has been a long-standing issue in society. However, "AI+education" is expected to solve this problem. The application of AI can not only achieve wider popularization at low cost, but also solve the problem of adapting measures to local conditions. By customizing different AI teachers, according to the actual level of the local area, you can Teach students in accordance with their aptitude and improve the quality of teaching in a targeted manner. Promoting the application of "AI+education" is the common interest demand of the whole society, and the market potential is great. The national power has taken the lead in participating in it. In March 2022, the national smart education public service platform was launched, providing a wealth of curriculum resources and educational services. The platform is free and open to the public, and there are not many business opportunities for enterprises in terms of content. However, AI teachers, multimedia classrooms, and supporting hardware equipment for online education are expected to usher in opportunities for growth in penetration rate. On the C side, for individual learners, the need to improve learning efficiency will also prompt them to look for more efficient and personalized AI solutions.
With the development of technology becoming more and more mature, the policy support attitude is clear, and the demand potential is exploding, it is not surprising that "AI+education" related companies are favored by the market. However, is "AI+education" really the ultimate answer?
face up to limitations
The industry leader takes the lead, which accelerates the implementation of AI education products, and even the AI large model proprietary to the education industry is also being developed and applied. But so far, there has not been a phenomenon-level product with iconic significance in the industry. The quality of B-end education informatization products is uneven, and the problem of "have but not use" is more prominent. The educational hardware of C-end products is seriously homogenized, and the categories are concentrated in dictionary pens, smart desk lamps, learning machines, smart watches, etc. Leading companies are speeding up the deployment of educational applications in order to consolidate the technology moat and gain first-mover advantages in new categories. On the whole, the landing ability of "AI+education" products remains to be seen, and the industry has not yet achieved a leading target.
Based on the slow and less than expected productization, the market's attitude towards "AI+education" is also becoming calm. Since mid-May, "AI+education" concept companies have generally entered a period of stock price correction, and the sentiment of the sector has dropped significantly. It is worth noting that the turnover rate of companies with outstanding performance in this round of "AI+" market is often accompanied by an abnormal increase when their stock prices peak. For example, the stock price of Guoxin Culture reached its peak of 20 yuan on May 15. At the same time, the turnover rate also climbed to 25.29%; when the stock price of Shengtong shares rose to 11.18 yuan, the turnover rate reached 28.95%; the stock price of Quantong Education rose to 8.45 yuan on May 11, and the turnover rate was 17.71%; The stock price reached a recent peak on May 8, and the turnover rate was as high as 27.94%. The high turnover rate that comes with the high stock price shows to a certain extent that the market is not really sure about the growth of "AI+education", and the rise in stock prices is more the result of capital speculation.
Moreover, "AI+education" is still in the early stage of development after all, and its limitations are obvious. For example, it requires a huge data set and computing power to train AI, which requires the application track to have a sufficient market size, and the sponsor must also have a high technical accumulation, which raises hidden challenges to the specific scenarios of its application. requirements. Moreover, behind the massive amount of data is the sharp increase in privacy and security risks. In the context of stricter protection of personal privacy, how to clarify the rights and obligations of data collection, use, and storage will be a part that companies need to carefully grasp; at the same time, AI development has a high demand for professional talents, and AI application has high requirements for infrastructure. Under the regulations of these two aspects, the implementation of "AI + education" must give priority to first-tier cities. Whether it can be applied to remote areas still needs to be discussed, and it may not be possible. Achieving the expected inclusiveness of education will also cause inequality in a wider range.
Although theoretically the application of "AI+education" has a bright future, its productization and commercialization are still in the early stages, and the risks brought about by over-excavation of its tool value cannot be ignored. This round of "AI+education" market is more of a result of hype concepts in the capital market than a new trend in the education industry. It will take time to observe the specific product implementation and usage in the future.