Entering June, the May sales results of various car companies have been released one after another, and the gap has widened again. Among them, BYD won the championship again with sales of 239,000 vehicles, Tesla China exceeded 75,000 vehicles in a single month, GAC Aian also exceeded 45,000 vehicles in a single month for the first time, and SAIC Motor rose to fourth Li Auto, which ranked fifth, also hit a new high in a single month, exceeding 28,000. Judging from the monthly sales data of the top five car companies, the monthly sales volume exceeds 28,000, which is the passing line for entering the top five.
Geely Automobile, Changan Automobile, Great Wall Motor, Nezha Automobile, Leap Motor, etc., ranked between sixth and tenth, have a minimum of 12,000 vehicles per month, which means that the monthly sales volume is 12,000 vehicles. It is the passing line to enter the top ten, and if it fails to reach this data, it will basically fall behind. It is worth mentioning that car companies such as Weilai and Xiaopeng, which were once in full swing, have slipped out of the top ten, and their voices have long since disappeared. So, what is the reason that caused such a big gap between the top giants in just two years?
The sales code of the head giant
Looking carefully at the top ten manufacturers, it is not difficult to find that the gap between the top ten new energy car companies is the choice, which is the strategic decision about what is the most important to users in the period of rapid growth of new energy vehicles. And in this matter, almost all the top players who squeezed into the top ten have found the right direction and ideas.
First, the choice of hybrid and pure electric routes has become the core division of whether leading car companies at this stage can enter the front row. Looking at the rise of leading car companies, it is not difficult to find that apart from Tesla, which has a first-mover advantage, the sudden emergence of BYD, or Li Auto’s latecomer, has a lot to do with its efforts in the hybrid car market. big relationship. So, why did the hybrid car become the winner of the first half of the new energy car?
The reason is actually not complicated. The main reason is that China has a vast territory and complex geographical conditions. The power infrastructure of new energy vehicles is backward, which makes it difficult to meet the needs of users for long battery life. In addition, it is also relatively expensive. These factors have caused pure electric vehicles , can only be used as the second choice for users to buy a car, and hybrids have no concerns in this regard, so when the state subsidizes hybrids and pure electric vehicles at the same time, users will give priority to hybrids.
The second is that the different attitudes of car companies towards intelligence and cost performance have also accelerated the differentiation among top players. Taking BYD as an example, the outside world is particularly curious about why BYD, which is not doing well in intelligence, can be so outstanding in terms of market sales. After all, at the beginning of the accelerated penetration of new energy vehicles, users are more aware of the electric experience of the whole vehicle, and the crappy intelligence is not absolutely necessary (basically enough), which is why the best small Peng, but did not perform well in the market competition.
In addition, high cost performance based on clear positioning is also the key to the success of leading new energy car companies. For example, Ideal Auto focuses on the home user market, while BYD and Aian focus on the mass user market, although the two markets are not the same. But if you take a closer look, it is not difficult to find that whether it is BYD's car, Aian, or Lixiang's car, they are all cost-effective comparable to fuel at the same price or even at a high price, as well as other new energy cars. The "new energy vehicle market" is the key to leading the coquettish and being unique.
The logic behind the breakthrough of hybrid vehicles
As mentioned above, due to the limited domestic infrastructure conditions, the sales volume of domestic hybrid vehicles has accelerated in the past few years, and the growth rate far exceeds that of pure electric vehicles. Judging from the sales of new energy vehicles in the entire first half, hybrid vehicles are indeed It has come to the front of pure electric.
On the one hand, plug-in hybrids have an overall comparative advantage over fuel vehicles. When our country was formulating new energy policies, it had considered simply subsidizing pure electric vehicles, but later, considering various factors, subsidies for hybrid vehicles were added to the new subsidy policy. The reason is the transitional role of hybrid vehicles themselves. It is very significant, and the facts do verify this idea.
In recent years, the plug-in hybrid technology of self-owned brand car companies has grown rapidly, especially BYD, Great Wall, Geely, Changan and other brands have launched exclusive hybrid system architectures, and the competitive advantages of new plug-in hybrid models are very obvious. Relying on the advantages of being more fuel-efficient than traditional fuel vehicles, cheaper than pure electric vehicles and free from battery life anxiety, hybrid models no longer rely on the bonus of "brand promotion", but have truly entered thousands of households. According to public information, the annual sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles last year was 1.518 million, an increase of 150% year-on-year in 2021. A large part of this is to seize the market share of fuel vehicles.
Since the beginning of this year, many new energy vehicles such as BYD and Changan have launched the slogan of "same price for oil and electricity, surpassing fuel". Their goal is to make full use of the fuel-saving advantages of hybrid vehicles and reduce vehicle costs. Consumers purchase, thereby accelerating the cannibalization of the fuel vehicle market at the same price, and with the price reduction of hybrid models, this cannibalization is further accelerated. In contrast, the cost of pure electric vehicles determines that they do not have much advantage in price competition with fuel vehicles. More importantly, many models do not yet have large-scale sales, and there is little room for price reduction.
On the other hand, the lower battery cost of hybrid vehicles gives them an advantage when competing with pure electric vehicles. According to public information, the difference in power system structure and battery capacity leads to a huge difference in the price distribution of BEV, PHEV and HEV. For example, if a BEV model has a medium-to-long battery life, it needs an expensive large-capacity power battery, while a PHEV and HEV can achieve a comprehensive cruising range of over 1,000km without a large-capacity battery. Compared with BEV models with a medium-to-long battery life, It has obvious battery cost advantages.
In short, whether it is competing with fuel vehicles or comparing battery costs with pure electric vehicles, hybrid models are slightly better. These have contributed to hybrid models surpassing pure electric vehicles in terms of growth rate and penetration rate.
Pure electric vehicle market may welcome new changes
However, the recent changes in the purchase tax exemption arrangement for new energy vehicles may have a certain impact on the current sales of hybrid and pure electric vehicles. Currently there are rumors in the market that the policy of full purchase tax reduction and exemption for new energy vehicles will end at the end of this year, and the policy arrangement after next year will continue to subsidize pure electric vehicles, while there will be changes for hybrid vehicles, which may be reduced or even reduced. Quit completely. For this rumor, the reaction of the outside world is still very sensitive, because the rationality of the rumor itself is very much.
First of all, supporting pure electric vehicles to accelerate market penetration is in line with the requirements of the country's long-term development plan for new energy vehicles. According to the previously issued "Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicle Technology Roadmap 2.0" plan, by 2035, the automobile industry will realize electrification transformation, and by then, energy-saving vehicles (full hybrid vehicles, including extended-range vehicles) and new energy vehicles will be realized. 50% of the situation. From the perspective of development growth rate and penetration rate, the development speed of energy-saving vehicles is relatively fast, while the penetration rate of new energy vehicles has slowed down. The core lies in the speed of subsidy decline, which is faster than the cost of pure electric vehicles. rate of decline.
As the national purchase tax exemption gradually exceeds the subsidy, it will play an important role in increasing the penetration rate of pure electric vehicles in the entire market. From this point of view, the separate taxation of hybrid vehicles and pure electric vehicles in the market, the full or 75% taxation for hybrid vehicles, and half of the taxation policy for pure electric vehicles are reasonable, especially considering the local financial difficulties , and the car purchase tax is a large plate, so there is still a possibility of partial withdrawal. In fact, some places are already gradually implementing new policies.
For example, on January 1, 2023, Shanghai took the lead in abolishing the regulation on free green cards for hybrid vehicles. Considering its consistent role as a weathervane, the signal of this move is very obvious. In the future, once it changes to this kind of purchase tax policy that favors pure electric vehicles, it will reverse the unfavorable price situation of pure electric vehicles to a certain extent, and bring some new opportunities for the pure electric market.
Secondly, investment in power infrastructure and technology is also changing, which may have a new positive impact on users' decision to purchase pure electric vehicles. Since the beginning of this year, in order to promote the entry of new energy vehicles into the countryside and the popularization and development of electric vehicles, the state has vigorously encouraged social capital and various parties to enter the field of charging infrastructure to improve the problem of insufficient support for the battery life of electric vehicles.
For example, Shanghai proposed: 1) Encourage private enterprises to invest in demonstration projects such as taxi charging demonstration stations, shared charging pile communities, and high-level battery swapping stations. 2) Give 30%-50% subsidy to charging equipment. 3) Give charging stations and enterprises a 0.05-0.8 yuan/10 million kWh electricity subsidy, and exempt operating centralized charging facility power access engineering fees, etc. In fact, not only the community, but also the charging service facilities of the provincial and national trunk lines are gradually being strengthened. As part of the investment in key industries, the progress is constantly accelerating. In addition, with the price reduction of lithium carbonate, the battery cost of trams will be further reduced, and the cost of pure trams will also be reduced accordingly. Trams with relative cost performance may appear next year at the latest to lead a new industry wave.
"Hybrid + pure electric" synergy is still the key to success
Based on the above factors, the status of pure electric vehicles in the second half may appear to "move up". Looking back at the first half of the entire new energy industry, we will find that the players who can lead the industry to come out are either the car companies with excellent product strength such as BYD who are making efforts in the hybrid and pure electric markets at the same time, or they are betting on extended-range vehicles. Emerging car companies such as ideal. In short, the excellent hybrid car products became the standard equipment for breaking the game in the first half. For the second half, the combination of "hybrid + pure electric" may become the key to victory.
First, the state's support policy for energy-saving vehicles has not changed, and the marketization of hybrid vehicles has established a foundation. In the future, it will still be the main force driving the sales growth of auto companies. According to the current public car company data, whether it is BYD, the head of the company, or the ideal of the extended program, or the rising star Wenjie, they are all famous for their hybrid cars. For example, the ideal one became the fastest explosive car to break 100,000, and its final sales volume was fixed at 194,913 units, creating a miracle in the sales of a new single-model car. BYD's hybrid sold 940,000 units in one fell swoop last year. Won the title of the industry; the industry that also focuses on extended-range hybrid vehicles has sold 90,000 vehicles in less than a year, and is also rising rapidly in the industry... It can be seen that the users of the entire new energy market today , The acceptance of the hybrid car itself is already relatively high.
Looking back at the second half, the country is still promoting energy-saving vehicles, and users' enthusiasm for hybrid vehicles will not change much due to subsequent changes in pure electric vehicles. There is a high probability that the existing development momentum of hybrid vehicles will continue.
Second, due to the reduction in cost and the alleviation of battery life anxiety, pure electric vehicles will become a new engine leading the growth of the industry. Looking into the future, whether it is due to policy support or the improvement of technology and infrastructure conditions, pure electric vehicles will be greatly beneficial. Therefore, for car companies, pure electric vehicles are an inevitable direction. Obviously, many cars currently Enterprises have realized.
Taking Li Auto as an example, the management stated that by 2025, it will launch a super flagship model, five extended-range electric models and five pure electric models. This actually means that Li Auto will start from a hybrid-based platform , entered the "pure electric + hybrid" dual-platform development model, and gradually approached BYD.
It is not yet known whether other pure electric platforms such as Weilai, Xiaopeng and other car companies will follow up this model in the future. But one thing is clear, the "hybrid + pure electric" dual-platform development model will indeed be stronger than a single platform, and there will be more companies with the "hybrid + pure electric" dual-platform model in the future redundancy of market competition.