At the beginning, I will draw a conclusion, that is: the efficient competition of human beings in the field of science and technology is digitizing the business world we live in step by step . And digitalization is not only the result of the development of AI intelligence, but also a hotbed of growth that it is keen on, laying an excellent soil for the follow-up artificial intelligence all the way!
Therefore, those jobs that "have clear demand paradigms, can be standardized and quantified, and can greatly improve efficiency compared with manual operations" will undoubtedly be gradually replaced.
From this dimension, the most popular jobs are:
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computer vision (image recognition, face recognition),
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Speech technology (man-machine dialogue, intelligent driving),
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natural language processing (machine translation, semantic analysis),
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Big data application (basic model architecture, scientific computing)
……
Note that there is no difference in industry here, as long as the above positions are involved, they all conform to the "law of being replaced by AI", that is, the job requirements can be defined, and many people are currently doing it.
Because the above characteristics are exactly in the arms of AI - based on the intelligent data model, as long as it is given enough time and data, it can learn from cats and tigers, and repeatedly subvert our existing cognition. (It’s a bit of a tragic feeling for success and failure of AI)
Previously, we have always believed that someone is very technical = he can find a job better in the workplace. But in reality, the two are often not equal! The reason is that we ignore whether there is such a large demand for the post behind it, and this is also the underlying logic of introversion in the workplace. You either choose to quit or commit yourself to marrying.
Because business units are always result-oriented, the only criterion for the boss to judge whether someone will stay is the ratio of production to ROI. When AI is enough to replace workers and even double the performance benefits, do you think the company still needs that? Are there many people? (Unless you climb to the top of the IT industry pyramid and are irreplaceable, there is a high probability that bottom-level employees will be eliminated)
Interestingly, from this point of view, compared with the logical thinking characteristics of science and engineering and the highly specialized characteristics of work, emotional liberal arts students or unpopular industries are more fortunate~~~
Because AI also has its own shortcomings, such as: insufficient simulation data capability in the face of scarce simulation data, inability to directly transplant systems in different fields, and poor adaptability.
Therefore, it is conceivable that the positions that are not easily replaced are as follows:
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Artificial intelligence designers and builders, because at present, there is still a lot of room for improvement in AI intelligence, and it is necessary to continuously improve the development of big data technology and deep learning algorithms. (Super popular, in short supply)
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Positions with temperature, or positions with deep emotional communication needs, because they involve a relatively complex decision-making system behind them, are the current weakness of AI. (Super unpopular, in short supply)
But this is definitely not to say that everyone should quickly switch to the above industries, because the form of the commercial society is far from perfect, and the development of this society still needs the labor force of various industries to depend on it. (At least until the artificial intelligence is perfected day by day, there will be no event that a certain profession will be eliminated or even disappear completely)
Therefore, for migrant workers who are "neither super hot nor super cold", there is actually no need to be overly anxious , because looking back at all stages of history, whenever a new thing is born, it will always cause heated discussions, and accompanied by the media. excessive exaggeration and cause unnecessary anxiety.
British writer Charles Dickens said in "A Tale of Two Cities" that I think it is very appropriate: it was the best of times, and it was also the worst of times . It applies not only to the second industrial revolution at that time, but also to the current intelligent age, and to every era of major changes.
The reason why it is good, I think the author is more aimed at understanding the dimension of the leap in the development of human society; the reason why it is bad, I think, is for most people who are in it and are forced by the times to move forward helplessly. ..
Now, with the emergence of the era of artificial intelligence, we need to actively resist the risks it brings, because "people who have no long-term worries must have near-term worries." But how to control this scale requires us to treat it rationally. I think a senior said it very well, and I will share it with you here-every technological revolution, in fact, only individual vertical companies are required to truly Just invest in it (this is also their track or mission). In fact, other companies and corresponding professionals only need to be able to use it in a timely manner to assist in improving work efficiency . (Is there a sudden realization? Praise~)
For example, in AI painting, everyone said that the painter was going to lose his job, but in fact, with the power of AI, the painter not only reduced the time for painting, but also made the work more in line with business needs through the secondary improvement on this basis, which greatly improved Increased business volume, while enriching the commercial society, it also formed a situation where a hundred flowers bloomed.
In the same way, for operators, on the premise of being familiar with business requirements, learning how to use intelligent tools to improve work efficiency is the core. It is also impossible for the so-called operation positions to disappear completely, because of the point I mentioned above: No matter how much AI learns in terms of perceptual cognition, it will not be equal to humans . (For example, as long as there is an impulsive factor in the brand consumption decision-making process, AI will not be able to accurately control human nature. Here I think of Tang Tan 3 inexplicably)
Therefore, the migrant workers who are facing unemployment here may have a high probability of falling into the primary operations that can only simply handle daily business processes. For example, an operation team with 10 people before may now only retain 3 to 5 people with the help of AI tools That's enough. The time and cost saved are used on the streamlined team, which not only helps to improve work efficiency and work results, but also greatly encourages the members of the existing team, and finally forms a de facto win-win situation.
As for where the optimized part of the people will go, here I briefly talk about three possibilities:
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Through independent learning and improvement, so that they have the ability to return to the workplace;
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Continue to mix in the workplace, but only limited to business units that have not yet adopted AI products; (Geographical migration is not excluded)
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Forced to change careers and start a new second career, it may be an industry that has not been invaded by AI, or it may be a brand-new industry extended by the birth of AI. (It does not necessarily have to have a technical threshold, a typical example: selling water for gold panning, the business of selling jeans and selling water next to the gold mine will rise)
As for young people's enthusiasm for burning incense and worshiping Buddha and setting up street stalls, whether it is in line with the workplace anxiety caused by AI, everyone has a different opinion, but let's just say that service providers who find (zhi) find (zao) business opportunities make a lot of money It's true!
OK, I have said so much, so you will find that workers and AI are by no means an either-or zero-sum game. To achieve dynamic balance and win-win coexistence, relying on their respective advantages to form a hinged spiral , this is the way to promote a technological society Progressive health genes.
Finally, a little digression:
Based on the above development laws, we can roughly infer the future social form after AI intervention, which is similar to the Internet Matthew Effect-a highly developed and professional business ecosystem, after maturity, begins to extend from the first-tier cities to the sinking market. The whole process It is often accompanied by the streamlining and elimination of employees, as well as the rotation and renovation of new and old positions (here it is not easy to say whether the two can promote a dynamic balance under the existing total labor force).
If it really happens that the job demand is decreasing and the number of unemployed is increasing, that is, artificial intelligence is infinitely close to or even replacing the social labor force, then what should the redundant labor force squeezed out of the workplace do?
I don't know yet, anyway, it's impossible to watch you just lie flat and enjoy the benefits! If possible, I even feel that everyone will be sent to an alien base to carry out a new round of pioneering projects. Thinking carefully, I am afraid... (a bit off topic, hhhhhh)