In 1995, when Bill Gates published his book "The Road Ahead," he was interviewed by the famous talk show host David Letterman to describe the future of the Internet. He said that with the Internet, users can watch any program they want, and some companies will provide on-demand services through the Internet. Letterman said CCTV was available on demand. Gates said, you can stop if you want, and you can see which part you want. A video camera would do, Letterman said. The audience laughed.
Today, the Internet has done just that, turning Netflix from a video and DVD rental shop in the sands of the Arizona desert into an industry. Twenty-three years after David Letterman interviewed Bill Gates, he was lured by a huge check of $2 million per show to come out of retirement to do stand-up talk. Guess who wrote the check? It is Netflix, the company that Gates said "a company that provides on-demand services through the Internet".
The observation I got from this is: It's easy to imagine the future as a better present but the really reasonable way to predict it is to find the factors that cause the change and see what changes it can bring about. (The original text is: It's easy to predict the future based on a better version of today. It's harder to identify the factors of change and predict the future that way.)
In the Netflix story, the role of the Internet is not to provide links to satisfy the demand for video on demand. The Internet does two things:
One is that it licenses a huge network and enables commercial activities to have a scale of cohesion, creating the Netflix platform.
The second is that it can understand the needs of users. Through big data, it affects media creation and makes the buyer-seller relationship between creators and audiences closely integrated—classic TV dramas such as Firefly (2002) would not have been filmed if Netflix had made efforts at that time. It ended at 14 episodes, because Netflix would know who to push it to.
After careful observation, the two reasons for Netflix's achievements are to realize the potential of the market and improve the efficiency of the market.
I said earlier: It is easy to imagine the future as a better present, but the really reasonable way to predict is to find the factors that cause changes and see what changes it can bring about.
Gates knows that the Internet is a new link, so video can be ordered. He successfully predicted this point, but he failed to see that the factor that will change the future is not the link, but the market.
The Internet is not just a new link technology, but a mechanism that unleashes market efficiency by connecting all networks.
If you know this, Gates can say in a TV interview: Yes, the functions of on-demand and parking are available now, but the Internet is not only a collection of functions, but also a collection of markets. In the future, Internet applications that allow you to order videos will have different programs and what you want to watch. The scale of the entire film industry in the future world is not comparable to that of the largest Internet video-on-demand company.
In 2018, when Netflix gave David Letterman a check of $2 million per show, Netflix was worth $170 billion. The combined market capitalization of the global film industry is a little smaller at $136 billion.
I have been talking about the power of the market since 2018. I mentioned two functions of the blockchain in the [TokenScript Design Document] in 2019:
l One is to reduce market resistance.
l One is to increase the degree of integration.
These two points are combined with each other, which is the same reason as the Internet increases connectivity and improves market efficiency at the same time.
In 2018, the biggest show on the blockchain was the stablecoin MakerDAO and DeFi built on the basis of the stablecoin. Many people have seen the challenges and impacts of the blockchain on the financial industry. Some people think that the future world is a world without banks, and everyone can obtain financial services through coins, so "blockchain is a kind of financial technology".
Three years later, the biggest show on the blockchain in 2021 is NFT. Many see the potential of blockchain to enable users to hold digital rights. Many people predict that in the future Web3 world, everyone will use NFT to represent their online identity, hold NFT and make money by participating in the fan economy. Some people even predict that everyone will start to like art. Even if they have never participated in art exhibitions before, middle-aged greasy uncles who teach their children a lesson when they see graffiti will become investors in digital art.
Is this really the future of Web3? The future Web3 is similar to the current Web2, but everyone holds NFT? Every player who has no artistic cells invests in artificial intelligence graffiti?
I don't see it that way, I think everyone is making the same mistake as Gates again. Important repeat three times:
"It's easy to imagine the future as a better present but the really reasonable way to predict it is to find what's causing the change and see what changes it makes."
(Note that I have superscripted the number of repetitions each time)
Just like the Internet is a digital information network, the essence of blockchain is a digital rights network. But to say that the future of the Internet is a network where everyone can get information from their fingers (Gates's prediction in "The Road to the Future") is to completely ignore the power of the market. Similarly, thinking that the future of the blockchain is that everyone holds digital rights and interests also ignores the power of the market.
There are far more than digital cats, digital apes, and digital graffiti that can be made into Tokens. A fitness trainer can issue a certain amount of fan coins, which will also have a certain market, but will it be much larger than the market for signature collections? uncertain. Further, he can make his time into tokens and put them in the secondary market for circulation. Users can redeem services. If his fame grows, the value of these commodities will also be inflated. This will have more market value. But these have not fully utilized the integrated power of the blockchain. These are just what David Letterman said in 1955 as "something a little better than a TV VCR".
As a fitness coach, this Token can be integrated.
For example, Calm, a personal positive energy application, can load this kind of token, quote the time of the fitness coach when the user's status is suitable, and help the user find fitness services that meet his personality and needs.
For example, a personal assistant app discovers that the owner has been on a long business trip in San José, has an hour between two meetings, and is close to a fitness trainer, and suggests that the owner take advantage of this opportunity. After the owner agrees, bid for a Token from the market to help the owner arrange it in the schedule.
For example, medical insurance apps can add fitness services to packages, dating apps can give gifts to partners, etc...
The integration space here cannot be achieved without the blockchain in the past, because without the blockchain, these integrations would require an integration point. As long as the integration centers such as Google, Facebook, and Apple are unwilling to provide this service, these integrations will not be possible. approach within a reasonable complexity.
A sufficient market close to the ideal would require each application to integrate several to dozens of Tokens. Without blockchain, this market potential could not be realized in the past.
Another example, such as car tokens. We did a proof-of-concept project for [Karma Car Token] in 2019. Its integration can be said to be endless.
Through Auto Token, users can make multiple insurance companies bid for services, instead of spending hours submitting information and waiting for valuation
Car Token can enable users to enter several service companies, car wash services, etc. without formalities
Users of famous cars hold Token to obtain permission for art exhibitions or airport VIP halls
Car Token can be used to generate temporary car keys and send them to friends in chat software as Token
Furthermore, if you lend a car to a car rental company, you can use the car Token to complete the transaction on the car rental website. This has not been easy in the past without Google or Apple Wallet support.
Netflix can grow to exceed the size of the global film industry simply by optimizing the combination of creators and audience needs through better market mechanisms. This is only touching the field of content creation, and it is only the two media of serials and movies, and it does not include new media such as short videos, so this kind of development can be achieved. Tokens have even greater potential. From TV dramas, to airline ticket and hotel reservations, to membership and fan status, to smart cars and smart home services, they can all be made into tokens, and the scale is far beyond Netflix.
However, for this to happen, blockchain alone is not enough.
Tokens that can achieve this kind of integration and exert this kind of market power need to be the next generation of Tokens, which we call Smart Tokens. It must be able to have an independent operating environment on mobile phones and websites, and cannot be handed over to the application that integrates it to run. It has to be able to get the truth directly from the blockchain and not rely on what the website says. It must be an independent basic component that can be connected with other services (Composible), and has both integration and market attributes. Therefore, we need a richer and safer technical framework than NFT. This is the core competence of our Smart Token Labs.