Technology cloud report original.
"Two sessions chatter" is a special plan for the two sessions launched by Tencent Technology, focusing on the business card of China's science and technology. This issue is jointly produced with Science and Technology Cloud Report, focusing on China's quantum computing research results and related progress.
More and more countries around the world are joining the competition in the field of quantum technology, vying for the commanding heights of the next technological strategy.
During the two sessions of this year, Guo Guoping, deputy director of the National People's Congress and deputy director of the Key Laboratory of Quantum Information of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, proposed the issue of talent training in the quantum field. He suggested to build a systematic and high-level quantum science and technology talent training platform, improve the performance evaluation mechanism of scientific and technological personnel, and establish a responsibility system for top scientists based on trust.
In the past 20 years, China has carried out all-round layout in the field of quantum computing, and has carried out research in the fields of basic theory of quantum computing, physical realization system, software algorithm, etc., and has become the only country that has achieved "quantum hegemony" in the direction of superconductivity and optical quantum. s country.
There is no doubt that quantum computing has become a business card of China's hard technology.
Despite the outstanding achievements, quantum computing is a protracted battle, and there are still many problems to be broken through and solved, including difficulties in technology implementation, incomplete industrial facilities, and talent shortages, which require rational and objective cognition from everyone.
Countries Compete for Computing Power "Nuclear Weapons"
For most people, quantum computing is a rather sci-fi vocabulary.
The moment when ordinary people are closest to the concept of quantum computing is probably the intelligent quantum computer MOSS in the domestic movie "The Wandering Earth 2".
To understand what quantum computing is, and why it is so important to every country, start with the classical computers that are in common use today.
In a classical computer, information circulates in the form of binary codes (0s and 1s), known as bits.
If each bit is transmitted by a particle instead of a number, then the miniaturization of the computer can be greatly promoted, that is, the quantum computer.
This technical theory originates from one of the greatest scientific revolutions in human history at the beginning of the 20th century—quantum mechanics, which forms the theoretical basis for describing the phenomena of elementary particles.
Since the 1990s, as people can actively and accurately manipulate microscopic particles such as photons and atoms, quantum computing technology has also been born.
Unlike classical computers, which rely on "bits" (0s and 1s) to process information, the "qubits" that underpin quantum computing are tiny subatomic particles that can exist in two states at a certain ratio, like a coin in the Rotate in mid-air, follow the calculation method of ternary (0, 1, 2).
Among them, 0 and 1 are definite states, and 2 is generally called a superposition state in quantum mechanics, which is a superposition of n states.
During the operation of the quantum computer, the existence of "2" allows the quantum computer to be in n states at the same time.
For example, suppose there is a traditional computer with four bits, and this computer can only get one state per second, that is, 0000 or 0101, then it takes 16 seconds to get all the states.
However, there is a quantum computer with four qubits, which can simultaneously calculate all permutations and combinations from 0000 to 1111, which means that it only takes 1 second for the quantum computer to output 16 states, which is equivalent to 16 traditional computers running at the same time s efficiency.
This leap from binary to multivariate processing multiplied computing power.
Academician Bai Chunli, president of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, once said that using the exascale Tianhe-2 supercomputer to solve a system of equations with exascale variables would take 100 years. Using a trillion-times quantum computer to solve the same equation takes only 0.01 seconds.
As the number of bits increases, the performance gap between quantum computers and classical computers increases exponentially, and the speed of quantum computing can reach heights beyond the reach of traditional computing.
Pan Jianwei, academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and executive vice president of the University of Science and Technology of China, once said, "If a traditional computer is a machine gun, then a quantum computer is like a nuclear weapon."
It is precisely because quantum computing has greatly surpassed the super-parallel computing capabilities of classical computers, and has outstanding advantages in the fields of nuclear explosion simulation, code deciphering, materials, and micro-nano manufacturing. Once breakthroughs in quantum computing technology, countries and entities that have mastered this ability , will quickly establish all-round advantages in the fields of economy, military, scientific research, security and so on.
For example, the US National Counterintelligence and Security Center (NCSC) believes that large-scale quantum computers can crack any encryption system, seriously threatening national information security.
Under such a prospect, major countries in the world are strengthening the layout of scientific and technological policies in the field of quantum information, launching development strategies and research project plans, increasing support and investment of public R&D funds, and promoting quantum technology from "basic to market".
In December 2018, the United States launched the 10-year "National Quantum Action Act", planning to invest more than 3 billion US dollars in 5 years;
The European Union officially implemented the "Quantum Technology Flagship Project" in October 2018, with a total funding of more than 4 billion euros;
The UK launched the "National Quantum Technology Project" in 2016, with a total investment of more than 1 billion pounds so far;
In September 2018, the German government adopted the "Quantum Technology: From Foundation to Market" national quantum technology framework plan, investing 650 million euros from 2018 to 2022, and an additional 2 billion euros after the new crown pneumonia epidemic.
In contrast, China leads the world in public investment in quantum information.
In 2017, China invested more than 10 billion U.S. dollars to build the world's largest quantum research facility, the National Laboratory for Quantum Information Science, in Hefei; by 2022, the investment in the laboratory will reach nearly 15 billion U.S. dollars.
At the national policy level, in 2021, quantum information will be included in the "14th Five-Year Plan" as a "key technology"; in 2022, the Central Economic Work Conference pointed out that new energy, artificial intelligence, bio-manufacturing, green and low-carbon, quantum computing, etc. will be accelerated. Cutting-edge technology research and development and application promotion.
As the "nuclear weapon" of future computing power, quantum computing has become a strategic commanding height that countries and regions around the world are trying to seize.
China enters the "first echelon"
Now in the development of quantum computing, countries around the world have started qualifying competitions. From the perspective of technical level, which country is the strongest?
For the research of quantum computing, the industry generally recognizes that there are three indicative development stages:
The goal of the first phase is to achieve quantum computing superiority (also known as "quantum supremacy"), that is, the computing power of quantum computers on specific problems exceeds that of supercomputers.
Studies have shown that when the number of qubits that can be controlled by quantum computing exceeds 60-70, a certain quantum superiority can be achieved. This goal has been achieved by the United States, China and Canada.
At present, the highest international record comes from the quantum computing chip launched by IBM in the United States, which can reach as high as 433 qubits, while the latest quantum processor launched by China has 121 qubits.
The goal of the second stage is to realize a dedicated quantum simulator, which can be applied to specific problems such as combinatorial optimization of quantum chemistry and machine learning to guide material design and drug development.
To reach this stage, according to current estimates, it will take 5 to 10 years, which is the main research task of the current academic circles.
The third stage is to build a programmable universal quantum computer based on the realization of quantum error correction. Due to technical difficulties, it is not yet clear when a universal quantum computer will be realized. The academic community generally believes that it will take 15 to 20 years, or even longer.
In terms of technical routes, scientists from all over the world are exploring quantum computing research based on a variety of different physical systems, such as superconducting qubit systems, optical systems, ion trap systems, ultracold atomic systems...
At present, China is the only country that has achieved "quantum computing superiority" in the direction of superconductivity and optical quantum, and research on technical routes such as ion traps and silicon spins is also in progress.
According to industry experts, in terms of ultra-cold atomic systems, my country is currently in a parallel state with developed countries in Europe and the United States, and has made great achievements in the preparation and manipulation of large-scale atomic entanglement, quantum simulation of spin-orbit coupling, and ultra-cold molecular reactions. A series of important achievements have been made, laying the foundation for solving some complex problems that classical computers are incapable of.
In general, my country's research on quantum computing is at the same stage as developed countries, and has entered the international "first echelon".
At present, China has completed the research layout of all important quantum computing systems, becoming one of the three countries (regions) with a complete layout including the European Union and the United States.
Not only that, but the number of quantum technology patents in China is also growing rapidly.
According to the IPRdaily2022 Global Quantum Computing Technology Invention Patent Ranking (TOP100) list, as of October 18, 2022, the top 100 companies on the list mainly come from 18 countries and regions, the United States accounts for 40%, and China accounts for 15%. , Japan accounted for 11%.
Among them, US company IBM ranked first with 1323 patents, US company Google and Canadian company D-Wave ranked second and third with 762 patents and 501 patents respectively.
The Chinese company Benyuanquan ranks first in China and sixth in the world with 234 quantum computing patents, surpassing Intel, which ranks seventh in the world.
The list also shows that from 2020 to 2022, China's quantum computing technology invention patents will increase from 137 to 804, achieving a five-fold increase.
At the same time, more Chinese companies began to enter the Top 100 list, such as: Origin Quantum, Baidu Netcom, Inspur, Tencent Technology, Huawei, Alibaba, Turing Quantum, etc.
Although the number of quantum computing patents in China is growing rapidly, this does not mean that China is ahead of the United States in quantum computing technology.
Compared with the strongest American teams in the quantum computing track such as IBM and Google, the Chinese team represented by Original Quantum is still in the position of catching up with the first-class foreign countries.
As Guo Guoping said, in the research and development of quantum computing technology, China still has a very high scientific peak to climb.
The critical point of industrialization is coming
In recent years, countries such as China and the United States have successively realized quantum superiority and delivered engineered quantum computers. This marks that quantum computing has entered the second stage of development and laid the foundation for the realization of universal quantum computing.
Technological breakthroughs make quantum computing no longer just a laboratory product, but it is possible to solve practical problems, and it is even expected to subvert an industry and create a brand new industry.
Jin Xianmin, director of the Integrated Quantum Information Technology Research Center (IQIT) of Shanghai Jiaotong University and the founder of Turing Quantum, believes that in China, the industrialization of quantum computing is at the right time.
In addition to the needs of technological competition between countries, quantum computing has reached a critical point beyond the laboratory.
Duan Runyao, director of Baidu Quantum Computing Research Institute, also said, "If we can break through this critical point, we will be able to obtain hundreds of qubits later, which can produce effects in some artificial intelligence and combinatorial optimization applications."
It must be mentioned that IBM predicts in the quantum computing software development roadmap that quantum computing may reach millions of qubits by 2030, which marks the imminent commercialization of quantum computers.
If 2030 is considered as the first year of quantum computing commercial use, based on CCID's "2021 Quantum Computing Technology Innovation and Trend Outlook" report, it is estimated that the global quantum computing market will reach 14.01 billion US dollars in 2030, and the growth rate will be about 30%. It is expected to reach a quantum computing market size of US$48.97 billion by 2035.
The huge market potential has attracted many investment institutions and technology companies, hoping to participate in the early stage of quantum computing industrialization.
International leading technology Internet companies such as Google, IBM, Microsoft, Intel, Honeywell, etc. are all deploying around quantum technology.
Domestically, Ali, Tencent, Baidu, and Huawei have successively deployed quantum computing in recent years. For example, Ali launched the quantum simulator "Tai Zhang"; Baidu established a quantum computing research institute; Huawei launched the "Kunlun" quantum computing simulation all-in-one machine.
At the same time, start-up companies are also running into the market, and quantum computing companies around the world continue to receive large amounts of financing:
In 2022, IQM, a superconducting quantum computing company from Europe, announced that it had received a round of A2 financing of 128 million euros led by the World Fund, setting a new financing record for European quantum computing companies in July;
Immediately afterwards, the domestic Quanyuan Quantum announced that it had officially completed the B-round financing of nearly 1 billion yuan, topping the global quantum computing financing list that year.
In addition, Xanadu, a Canadian optical quantum computing company, received US$100 million in financing, Atom Computing, an American neutral atom quantum computing company, received US$60 million in financing, Oxford Quantum Circuits (OQC) announced a 38 million A round of financing, Israel Quantum Algorithm design platform provider Classiq announced a B round of financing of 33 million US dollars, and French quantum computing company Alice & Bob also received 27 million euros in financing...
In the past year, 9 domestic quantum computing companies have obtained financing, and 5 of them have a financing amount of more than 100 million yuan, including Liangxuan Technology, Turing Quantum, Huayi Quantum, Weiwei Magnetic technology, original quantum.
The financing of these quantum computing companies is characterized by not only large amounts of money, many first-line institutions, but also dense financing rounds.
According to the data reported by the Photon Box Research Institute, in 2021, quantum technology companies will complete a total of 49 financings, with a total annual financing of nearly 3.2 billion US dollars (about 20.2 billion yuan), which is more than three times the annual financing scale of 2020.
At the application level, many industries such as meteorology, finance, petrochemicals, materials, biomedicine, and automobile transportation have begun to pay attention to and value the huge development potential of "quantum computing", and have begun to cooperate with quantum computing companies to explore.
However, it is worth noting that the various technical paths of quantum computing have just started, and there are still uncertainties in the commercialization prospects.
Zhang Gaonan, managing partner of Huaying Capital, said that quantum computing is far from achieving technological convergence, and it will certainly not be able to compete with traditional computing in an ordinary business environment within 10 years.
Quantum computing is coming soon
Subversive technological advantages and unprecedented market imagination have triggered capital bets on quantum computing, but they are also facing many objective challenges and difficulties.
Taking the domestic quantum computing industry as an example, it still faces challenges such as difficulty in implementing the technology and unsound industrial support.
For example, at present, it is difficult for quantum computing to provide stable computing power during the operation process; although the number of qubits has reached quantum superiority, the manipulation accuracy and error correction and fault tolerance capabilities of quantum entanglement are still insufficient.
From the perspective of the industry chain, suppliers of quantum computing equipment are mainly international companies, especially dilution refrigerators and low-temperature coaxial cables.
In terms of chip manufacturing, the current domestic quantum chip manufacturing process is mainly completed in laboratories, but some leading quantum computing teams in the world have already manufactured quantum chips in factories.
In terms of software, there are more than 100 quantum software companies in the world, but there are fewer quantum software companies in China.
In addition, compared with the unsound industrial support, the shortage of talents also hinders the development of quantum computing.
According to the latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, there are only more than 100 front-line talents in the field of quantum industry in the country.
More urgently, in the field of quantum information technology, Europe and the United States have also begun to increase export controls.
In the classic computer system, the core technology of computing chip design and manufacturing is in the hands of technology giants and is in a monopoly position. However, in the field of quantum computing, the world has not yet formed monopoly giant companies or high technology patent barriers, and the current seizure of technology entry will gain crucial bargaining power.
For this reason, the country proposed that the key task during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period is to strive to create a truly "useful" special-purpose quantum simulator, that is, a quantum simulator that coherently manipulates hundreds of qubits and is used to solve practical problems that supercomputers cannot handle. computer.
In this regard, Pan Jianwei said that in terms of quantum computing, it is necessary to break through the long-term maintenance of quantum superposition and quantum entanglement, and the multi-particle entanglement in physical systems such as photons, ions, superconductivity, ultracold atoms, diamond color centers, quantum dots, and topologies. , high-precision qubit manipulation beyond the fault-tolerant threshold and other technologies.
At the same time, in view of the rapid development of quantum computing, it is also necessary for relevant departments and research institutions to cooperate to explore possible application modes of quantum computing and related algorithm research.
epilogue
Quantum computing is a difficult subject. The current research done by human beings is just knocking on the door of quantum technology, and there are still many thorns in the technological breakthroughs of many physical systems.
The process of quantum computing from the laboratory to the industrialization also takes a long period. This global battle for quantum computing is essentially more like a long-distance marathon.
Facing the "14th Five-Year Plan" and even the longer-term future, it remains to be seen whether quantum computing can become an important core technology for China to "change lanes and overtake" in the global technology industry and master the right to speak in cutting-edge technologies.
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