How many shocking secrets are hidden behind shared bicycles?
Text / Ma Jihua
Some people say that cycling is green travel, and that bicycles can be used continuously by many people, so the concept of "sharing bicycles" has emerged, and it has also won the favor of capital.
Overcapacity is the reason for the popularity of the shared bicycle concept
The sharing economy has attracted a lot of attention. Although Didi, a car-sharing company, has been severely regulated, it has become a network force that cannot be ignored, and has profoundly changed the way of travel. Next, many people are thinking, will the bicycle take over?
It is said that China is the kingdom of bicycles. In fact, although China is the country with the largest production and possession of bicycles in the world, the number of bicycles per capita is only about 0.4, which is similar to that of the Netherlands, Denmark, Germany, Sweden, Norway and other European countries. The gap between countries and Japan is very large. The survey shows that among the major countries in the world, Germany has the highest household bicycle ownership rate, with 80 bicycles per 100 households; China ranks third with 65 bicycles per 100 households. The Netherlands has a population of about 16.7 million, but has about 18 million bicycles, or about 1.1 bicycles per capita.
However, China's bicycle manufacturing capacity is quite large, only the recent severe overcapacity. According to the data released by the Asia Bicycle Show, the national bicycle production reached 80.3 million in 2015, a year-on-year decrease of 3.3%. Since the unit price of bicycles is still rising, the overall revenue of the industry is still growing slightly. Therefore, we have seen that many bicycle manufacturers have touched the Internet earlier than car manufacturers and upgraded production to "operation". In the long run, many bicycle manufacturers will no longer be bicycle manufacturers, but bicycle travel operators.
The users of shared bicycles can only be a small group
The shared bicycle model is essentially a time-sharing economic model. It basically uses a smartphone APP as an operating tool to quickly rent and return a bicycle, and complete a 3-kilometer city ride at an affordable price. The custom bike shape is highly recognizable on the street. Using the mobile app, users can use their mobile phones to check the location of bicycles and find bicycles. By scanning the QR code on the body to unlock, you can start using the bicycle.
Speaking of which, sharing bicycles is very simple, and this APP "calling a car" is really "calling a car", not calling the driver. However, it is precisely because of the existence of the driver that there are great problems in the management and use of bicycles. The damage and loss of vehicles will be more serious, and it is difficult to store and store them as you like. That is to say, unlike taxis, after sharing bicycles It also requires a lot of "programs", which are more difficult to manage and accept than taxis.
If you need to ride a bicycle every day, it is better to buy one yourself, because it is more cost-effective. Occasionally there is a need to use a bicycle, but also consider the practical problems. It is no problem to experience it once or twice. It is actually very difficult to use it for a long time. Therefore, shared bicycles will only be used by a small group of young people, and they are only used for special needs.
Cities simply don't need that many bikes
In the history of the development of the Internet, capital has always been the driving force, and driven by capital, every business has the same routine, such as group buying, P2P, and bicycle sharing.
According to reports, up to now, Shenzhen has a total of 798 public bicycle outlets, 66 public bicycle stations around the track site, and 22,954 public bicycles. However, several operators of shared bicycles are planning to deploy more than 200,000 bicycles in Shenzhen by the end of the year. Where do you put so many bicycles?
Some experts believe that to determine how much a city's bicycle capacity can reach, dividing the number of permanent residents by 150-200 is a more scientific calculation method. In this way, according to the official statistics released by Shenzhen, the permanent resident population is more than 11.37 million, and Shenzhen can only accommodate nearly 80,000 bicycles at most. In fact, this number is too much. In a city like Shenzhen, 50,000 vehicles are enough. When the trend passes, it is estimated that abandoned bicycles are everywhere in major cities, telling the glory of capital in the past in the wind and rain.
Bicycle travel is not suitable for China's big cities now
Now, the operators of these shared bicycles mainly start their layout in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, obviously just to gain the attention of capital, but in fact, these cities are not suitable for the survival of bicycles.
The Netherlands is also far ahead in the proportion of trips by bicycle. According to a report in the New York Times in 2013, the proportion of trips by bicycle in Amsterdam, the capital of the Netherlands, reached 32%. In 2012, the survey data of the Beijing Transportation Commission showed that the proportion of bicycle trips in Beijing is currently less than 20%, and it is declining at a rate of 2% to 4% every year.
Many people believe that with shared bicycles, people will use them to achieve the goal of green travel. In fact, this is also false logic. In a big city like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, how many people can enjoy the happiness of riding a bicycle to work? First, the traffic distance is very long, and it is not feasible to ride a bicycle to work; second, urban roads have become car roads, and bicycles have no right of way, and it is already impossible to move; third, the smog is popular, who dares to ride a bicycle so chicly?
Therefore, the future of shared bicycles is not bicycles, but electric vehicles. There is no sharing of electric vehicles and motorcycles yet, that is because no suitable excuse has been found. In the future, just as Didi people start to use taxis to open the way, the goal of shared bicycles must be electric bicycles that do not require manpower or Motorcycles, this part of the demand is greater, the benefits are greater, and the market space is also greater.
Shared bicycles are not aimed at the future market development trend of bicycles
According to the "Report on the Development of Cycling Industry" released by Shanghai Institute of Physical Education last year, there are only 6 million cycling enthusiasts in the country. In terms of population base, the commuter market is currently larger than the sports market. According to the survey, the population of sports bicycles in China is only about 6 million, and the registered professional bicycle athletes are only 10,000, which is far lower than that of European and American countries.
At present, the per capita consumption of bicycles in my country is 1,500 yuan, and the per capita consumption of spare parts is 1,200 yuan. The average bicycle is replaced once a year. According to the calculation of Kaitai Capital, the domestic bicycle sports population can reach 6% of the national population in 2025, or about 84 million. people, the 10-year growth rate is about 14 times. Obviously, for cycling, those shared bikes are just bystanders.
From a long-term perspective, it is impossible for bicycle travel to become mainstream again in China. Even in third- and fourth-tier cities, electric bicycles and "chartered cars" are still the world. The development of shared bicycles cannot solve the needs of future cycling. It does not help to solve the transportation problems in big cities.
Therefore, we should see that the current shared bicycle fever, in addition to the hype of capital, is mainly to pave the way for the opening of the shared electric vehicle (motorcycle) market. It is also the second battlefield for bicycle manufacturers to solve overcapacity. Another "group buy".