Should I change my major in Communication Engineering?

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The annual college freshman registration season has begun again. Colleges and universities all over the country have welcomed new students one after another, and some have even started military training.

Seeing these young faces with dreams every year, Xiao Zaojun is very emotional - time flies, years are ruthless, and his youth is gone for another year.

Closer to home, recently, Xiaozaojun has received a lot of WeChat and Zhihu private inquiries. There is one question that gets asked the most:

"I'm a freshman majoring in communications. My brothers and sisters all said that this major has no future, and it's hard to find a job in the future. They asked me to find a way to change my major. Do I really want to change?"

I personally think that if you do a questionnaire survey among the correspondents who have worked, it is estimated that more than half of them will give you a positive answer.

The main reason for such pessimism is that the overall development situation of the communication industry is indeed very severe.

Xiaozaojun briefly introduced the current situation of the communication industry:
The overall pattern of the domestic communications industry is centered on two types of companies. One is an operator represented by China Mobile, China Telecom and China Unicom, and the other is a large equipment manufacturer represented by Huawei, ZTE, Ericsson and Nokia. They are surrounded by small and medium-sized equipment manufacturers with relatively single product direction, as well as suppliers, agents and subcontractors with relatively weak overall strength.

In short, if you want to enter the communication industry, you must give priority to the three major operators and the four major equipment manufacturers. Their market position, treatment level, and development prospects are definitely stronger than other units on average.

At present, in terms of technological development, because the basic theory of communication cannot be broken through, the development potential of various technologies is limited, and the probability of technological revolutionary breakthroughs in the short and medium term is low.
From the perspective of the industry situation, operators, as the industry leaders, are getting more and more difficult to live under the pressure of speeding up and reducing fees and competition in the same industry. Operators' profits are beginning to decline, internal management is getting tighter, cost control and efficiency improvement are gradually increasing, and there is even the risk of "layoffs" that was almost impossible before.

And the life of equipment manufacturers is not easy. Everyone should be aware of the situation of Huawei and ZTE. Currently, there is a lot of external pressure. Huawei, in particular, is fighting with all its strength, and there is still no light in sight, and there are great uncertainties. It is impossible to go in and live a good life now. Although Ericsson and Nokia are foreign companies, their domestic market share is relatively limited, their salary is not as good as before, and the working environment is not so easy.

The three major operators and the four major equipment manufacturers are still like this, not to mention other companies. Most companies are cautiously preparing for the winter.

Maybe some students will ask: "Isn't 5G just started, won't it drive industry prosperity?"

This question is really hard to say. 5G is now in the initial stage of construction and needs to invest a lot of money. At present, operators are stretched thin and are struggling with funding problems. Even when bidding for contracts, whether for equipment or services, the profits are extremely thin. Not winning the bid is hard, and winning is also hard.
The bigger question is, will 5G bring benefits after construction? At least in the short term, it is difficult to make a profit. Consumer Internet users (regular mobile phone users) are not sure if they are willing to pay for 5G. The willingness of industry Internet users (governments and enterprises) to pay is more confusing at present.

Xiaozaojun is not bad-mouthing 5G. 5G is certainly useful and a clear development direction in the future, but this cycle is uncertain. In short, we also don't know how long we have to wait from investment to return. Maybe next year, maybe ten years from now.
If it is really ten years later, then this winter will undoubtedly be too long.

Back to our topic, since the future of communication is uncertain, is it really necessary to change majors?

My advice is: don't switch.

Here are my reasons.

First of all, we humans have experienced three industrial revolutions, namely steam engines, electricity, and computers. Computers and information technology are still our most powerful productivity tools. Communication majors belong to the category of information technology.

The fourth industrial revolution, at present, has a very close relationship with the Internet of Things, cloud computing, big data, and artificial intelligence, which also includes the field of communication technology. (5G can be understood as the category of the Internet of Things, and supports the application of cloud computing, big data and AI. For details, please refer to the previous historical articles of Xiaozaojun.)

Communication is a rigid need for human beings and an important driving force for social progress. The value of communication will always exist.

You can actually see it from your own college entrance examination scores, but those who can enter a school in computer, communication, and electronic information-related majors must be students with relatively high or even the highest scores. Everyone fills in the application and will give priority to the direction of ICT (IT + communication, information communication). This is a reflection of social needs.

Some students will say that computers, communications and electronic information are all ICT. We can go to computers and develop in the direction of the Internet, and enter the Internet industry in the future.

Xiaozaojun believes that as an undergraduate, if you want to enter the Internet industry, you do not need to change majors at all. At the undergraduate level (including college), you learn computer or communication or electronic information, in fact, there is no such big difference as imagined. You can compare the syllabus of our school's professional courses, and the similarity is at least 70%. If you are applying for a job in your senior year, HR will not pick on your professional name. Basically, they are all classified into one category.
In short, don't take your professional name too seriously.

Having said that, Xiaozaojun wants to say a digression. I have done training on "career planning" before, and then I slowly gave up this course. Because I found that career planning should be replaced by "capacity planning".

Thanks to the nine years of examination-oriented education, most young people after the college entrance examination lack understanding of the whole society, the operation mode of society, the industry, and the occupation. Under such a premise, how is it possible to make a career plan? Even if you do, you do it blindly, or go with the flow.

At present, the undergraduate teaching in domestic colleges and universities cannot really cultivate a person into a definite professional role. You said that a current university graduate can immediately enter a software development engineer position or a communication core network engineer position and start work without training?

Undergraduate education has not been so high for a long time, and it is actually only a basic education of professional ability. Therefore, it is correct to abandon the idea of ​​career planning and change to ability planning.

What is capacity planning? Competency planning is what abilities I should have at the end of my undergraduate degree. To what extent should these capabilities be achieved? What industry positions do I have the ability to work in.

Nowadays, many colleges and universities implement the policy of "determining the major professional direction at the time of admission, and then determining the specific professional direction after the second and third year." I personally agree with it. Before students find their own characteristics and hobbies, and before students have a basic understanding of the professional industry, there is no need to rush to determine a specific professional direction.

In my personal opinion, all information and communication majors, no matter how they are called, are actually three lines, namely software, hardware and network.

All three lines are thoroughly studied, either prodigies or fools.

Now many colleges and universities formulate teaching syllabus, the most common mistake is "I think you can use it", and then add them all to you, filling hundreds of credits, no matter whether you can digest it or not.

The fact that this course is set does not mean that students graduate with this skill. This principle is actually the same as "buying a book does not mean you have read it".

Rather than overwhelm the students, it is better to set up some practical training practices that are truly in line with the industry, to help students better understand the real status of the industry, and to cultivate students' innovative ability and divergent thinking. (The country is now vigorously promoting the "integration of production and education" and introducing social forces into colleges and universities. I think it is very correct.)
The last reason against changing majors is very simple - are you sure that the new major you are transferring into must be a good major? Moreover, why do you guarantee that after you transfer to a new major, there will be a good development?
Take the computer major mentioned earlier. Many people think that switching to a computer is good, and it is a good direction to go to the Internet industry. But in fact, the good days of the Internet industry are over, and the current development situation is not optimistic.

When the communication Wang complained that he was working overtime and staying up late, the programmers were also working overtime and staying up late, even worse. The hairline is not only worrying about the communication people, but also the IT people.

Look at the problem can not just look at the surface. In recent years, a large number of talents have poured into the Internet industry, which has intensified the already brutal competition. Once the industry loses ground, the number of unemployed people eliminated will be even more frightening.

Xiaozaojun has said countless times that it is scarcity that determines the value of a person or a thing. No matter how popular a profession is, it will lose its value as the number of people increases. It's all just the speed of time.

Xiaozaojun also said before that the so-called good or bad of the industry is not a one-size-fits-all problem, but a problem of head percentage. In a good industry, not everyone is good, but the top 30% (for example) are doing well, and the bottom 70% are still bad. In a bad industry, not everyone is bad, but the top 20% (for example) live well, and the bottom 80% are bad.

If you want to live well, you must find a way to get into the top of the industry. The way to enter the head, in addition to using resources (fighting father and mother), is to work hard.

There is a saying that says it well: "Most of the time, there is no right choice. We just have to work hard to make the original choice right. "

Many students think that changing their major can change their fate, but they really overestimate their abilities and underestimate the cruelty of society.

Students who are about to graduate often ask me whether they should take the postgraduate entrance examination, the civil service examination, study abroad, or find a job. In fact, the same is true. There is no right answer here, it must all depend on your own efforts.

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