Why is this chance of acting as an undergraduate student so good?
Thank you for watching the live broadcast of Shenzhen Satellite TV and iQiyi, and the six New Year's Eve speeches exclusively named by Walnut friends in 2021. This year, Six Walnut launched a new product, Six Walnut 2430. Their philosophy is: persist for 30 days, change visible.
Now I would like to express my gratitude to the knowledge partner in this sector: Tencent Conference.
As a product that supports our online meetings, the current number of Tencent Meeting users has exceeded 100 million. Amazing. How did they do it? There is a slogan in the Tencent meeting called "Tencent meeting, meeting." This is not a slogan.
Think about it, everyone. When we choose online meeting software, what do we value most? One is signal stability, and the other is information security. In order to achieve these two points, the network transmission engine of Tencent Conference was developed by itself. Even if the network signal is unstable, the conference can be as smooth as possible. At the same time, they have a complete set of security protection systems that can ensure the safety of meeting data and prevent the outflow of meeting information.
Okay, let's get to the topic of this part.
In 2020, there is a question I have always wanted to know the answer. As the world's factory, China has an annual output of 1.7 billion mobile phones and 340 million personal computers. We account for more than half of global semiconductor demand.
But the chips we can produce are only 5% of the global share. So of course people have the ability to say, if this one is not sold to you, and that one is not sold to you, it will catch our necks. It's not just chips. Many new materials such as high-precision CNC machine tools may get stuck, so how can production continue? How to maintain the export? Will the status of the world's factory still be there in the future?
Is this serious for us?
Anyway, this year, I met relevant people, I must ask this question, that is: Chinese chips are stuck, can we make high-end chips ourselves?
The answers I can find around are a bit surprising to me. Although many people feel particularly worried, in the eyes of insiders, the answer is not controversial. There are only two: first, it is difficult; second, it definitely works.
One of the most interesting angles is what Li Tiefu from Tsinghua University told me. He said that the chip problem is not a scientific problem, but an engineering problem.
What do you mean? The so-called scientific question is: when a question is raised, which way will work? do not know. Even, is there a fundamental solution to this problem? do not know either. For example, there is a laboratory in China, 2400 meters underground, searching for dark matter in the universe.
When will such scientific research yield results? Can there be results? Is it useful to have results? do not know. This is called a scientific problem.
The so-called engineering problem is that this problem is definitely solvable, and the technical route is clear, but I don’t know how to do it for the time being. This is called an engineering problem.
For example, you know that there is a place called Shangri-La, you know that it is indeed there, and you know that someone has been there, but now you have no money, no map, and you don’t know how to get there. This is an engineering problem. .
Yes, high-end chips are such an engineering problem. If there is enough time and resources, theoretically, it can be solved completely.
This year, I asked people in the industry, and the answer I got is roughly the same. But, after all, I don't understand chips. For the future, others can say nothing more, and that the chip problem will not be stuck, so I have no choice but to doubt it.
As liberal arts students, we think there is another way to go about the problem, which is to look back to see if similar things have happened in history, and what are the results of similar things. As Mark Twain said: "History does not repeat, but it always rhymes."
Then I asked, has there been such an example in history? A power must use its own political will to drive an important global partner out of the globalization system through a blockade, and do so-called "decoupling." Excuse me, has there ever been such a thing in history?
Don't tell me, I'm looking for this one: Napoleon. An overlord 200 years ago.
Many people know that Napoleon's tragic ending. In 1812, he led an expedition to Russia. As a result, his army of more than 600,000 had travelled nearly a thousand kilometers, and most of them were buried in the icy and snowy wilderness of Russia. This is the beginning of Napoleon's fall.
Everyone knows this story, but many people didn't ask a question, that is, why did Napoleon fight Russia? You know, just 5 years ago, France and Russia signed a peace treaty. Napoleon and the Russian tsar, rounded up, can be considered allies. Why would you turn your face? Will there be this expedition in 1812?
I have heard a saying from the historian: This is about Napoleon's thoughts at the time. Napoleon was the God of War. He fought invincibles all over Europe, and he almost managed the entire European continent by force.
Looking around, there is only one opponent left, and that is Britain. Napoleon looked down on the British. He has a famous saying: "Britain is nothing more than a country of small shopkeepers." This means that the British can do nothing but trade and engage in global trade. Across the English Channel, Napoleon's most vicious trick was to block the mainland and decouple from Britain.
Doesn’t it sound familiar? Is it a bit similar to a certain country today? Napoleon took the first moral command and accused Britain of "not recognizing the rules of international law generally observed by all civilized nations."
Napoleon's method of work is even more ruthless than that of today's country. Any ship from Britain and its colonies is not allowed to enter any port on the European continent. All industrial products from Britain are confiscated and burned on the spot as long as they reach the shores of Europe.
You see, Napoleon’s goal is obvious, to drive Britain out of the entire civilized world’s trading system at that time, and to starve Britain to death.
But what was the result? Britain has not yet collapsed, but Napoleon's allies on the European continent have betrayed first.
Take Russia as an example. Although the czar signed a covenant with Napoleon and is an ally on the surface, he still said that he was physically honest when implementing the mainland blockade policy. Russia was poor back then, so it relied on exporting a little wood, grain, and fur to Britain, and then traded for necessary industrial products from the British. This is a very realistic demand.
Well, now listen to you, Napoleon, cut off the trade with Britain, and the Russian nobles are almost bankrupt. Since you can't do it on the surface, you have to do it secretly. At that time, Tsar Alexander I had no choice but to act against Napoleon. As a result, Russia became a huge hole in Napoleon's continental blockade policy. A large amount of British goods poured into Russia, and then passed through Poland, Austria, and Prussia from the western border of Russia, and then entered the entire European continent.
Now you understand why there is a war between them. Napoleon couldn't bear it anymore. He realized that if the mainland blockade is to be carried out to the end, Russia must be completely conquered, not just a superficial agreement with the Tsar. We all know what happened afterwards. In 1812, Napoleon personally conquered Russia and returned with a defeat. In the end, only 10,000 people returned to Paris.
You see, this situation is interesting. The more people who gritted their teeth and want to get rid of, the more they think that their sphere of influence is like an iron barrel. In fact, there are holes inside. The laws of the ubiquitous market economy still have to be respected.
A more interesting consequence is that during the years when Napoleon pursued the mainland blockade policy, British exports not only did not suffer, but increased at one time. The materials I saw said that in 1805, on the eve of the promulgation of the mainland blockade policy, the value of British exports was about 51 million pounds.
In 1810, just five years later, when Napoleon blocked Zhenghuan, this number had grown to about 63 million pounds. In fact, it is precisely because the world market was so abnormally cut off by Napoleon that the advantage of the British manufacturing industry has been further magnified.
Well, this is the history that we liberal arts students know. It is also the closest time to today. In the global market, someone tried to use their political will and their status as a major power to exclude a certain country from the world's cooperative system. What happened.
After I said this story, of course everyone heard it. I meant something. Then, what is the role played by China, which is stuck in the neck? Corresponding to the story just now, it is exactly the role of the British. Many people may still have a misunderstanding about China today. They think that China is in the Asian continent, so it is still a mainland country full of yellow earth thinking.
Wrong, no, today China is the largest trading partner of more than 120 countries and regions. In today's globalization system, it is not the United Kingdom or the United States, but China is holding high the banner of global free trade and playing the role of the ubiquitous blue ocean. Therefore, the conclusion is obvious. As long as China remains open to the outside world, as long as the Chinese have no desire to decouple, as long as the Chinese embrace free trade, no one can drive us out. So, we have to say something to those who are clamoring for decoupling: Napoleon, understand?
Having said that, whether Napoleon or the Americans do not make such mistakes, it is their business. And technological innovation, oneself is not controlled by others, this is the real task of our generation of Chinese. Now, how are we doing? In addition to chips, what shortcomings do we have? Can you make it up?
For these questions, I will ask everybody this year. Don't tell me, there are really a few perspectives, which are quite interesting, not the same as I originally thought.
What about the ongoing technological innovations in China?
From the first perspective, we usually think that scientific research at a tall university takes place in a laboratory. It is a matter of uncle scientists in white coats and grandpas who use their brains. Do you remember the news on September 15 that the US "chip ban" against Huawei took effect. How did we feel at that time? As ordinary people who eat melons, we are anxious, we are angry, but what's the use? We are at a loss.
Indeed, in the past 100 years or so, most of the time when the Chinese engaged in science and technology, it was to learn from others, that is, to introduce the achievements of others. Therefore, it is naturally done by a small group of elites. But today, China is the China that grew up, and there are many ways to light up the technology system in adulthood.
For example, this year someone reminded me that you should go to the factory and have a look, so you know what the real innovation scene in China is like.
This is a lighthouse factory in China. To be more specific, a large number of high-end home appliances of our knowledge partner Casarte are produced in this factory.
What shocked me was not the tall equipment or the bright and clean environment, but rather specific innovations popping up here. Let me read a few names for you to feel: Wang Yongtao's jet uniform wind technology, Bian Wei compressorless refrigeration technology, Zhang Huantang "Huantang" valve, Li Chenglin MSA oxygen control and preservation technology.
Does it sound similar to "Maxwell's equations", "Roentgen rays" and "Newton's second law"? But the people who have the naming rights for these innovations are not the big scientists, but the first-line producers of the Casati factory: ordinary workers and engineers. You see, innovation does not come from the top down, but emerges from the bottom up.
In order to understand technological innovation this year, I commissioned several groups of colleagues to separately interview some important projects. For example, everyone may have heard that the Hualong No. 1 nuclear power unit, the world's most advanced nuclear power technology, was just connected to the grid for power generation in November this year.
But our colleague came back from the interview and told me, don’t make a mistake, Hualong One is not a device, it is a set of technologies. The development of such a set of things requires the cooperation of more than 5,300 companies. Those technical difficulties are not some mysterious flying immortals, but need countless people to spend time, brains, and bit by bit to solve.
Let me give you an example, the low pressure rotor of a steam turbine, this big guy, 285 tons, the accuracy of installation, 2 wires, what is the concept? One third of a hair. Do you say mysterious? Not mysterious. is it hard? Of course it's difficult, extremely difficult. One installation involves nearly 300 procedures, thousands of work items, and nearly 50,000 items of data.
The real scene of China’s innovation is like this. In this factory, one production line, with 200 million Chinese workers and nearly 3 million science and engineering college students graduating each year, they are in the process of solving specific challenges. , Realized from the bottom up.
Realizing this, I am indeed less worried about China's innovation. Why? Because it is not a small group of Chinese people looking at a few solitary and inaccessible technological bunkers helpless, but specific challenges, broken down into huge workloads, and then relying on funds, resources, talents, and time. , Patience, determination, eating bite by bite. It is not worthy of donation. Isn't this what we Chinese are good at?
This is a perspective. This year I also encountered a perspective, which also alleviated my worries. In the past, we had a big impression that China's technology may be okay at the overall level, but the cutting-edge sector owes too much debt.
You see the chip is typical, we can mass produce 14nm, but 7nm, 5nm, 3nm, we can't do it now. This impression cannot be said to be wrong. Please note that our stock of debt is indeed a lot, but the catch-up speed is very fast.
Let me give you an example. Many people know a common sense that the technologies that are stuck in China are often due to material problems. For example, high-purity silicon materials used to make chips, photoresist materials, and so on.
Well, let's ask, what is the status quo of China's materials science?
This year, we asked Mr. Yafei Sun to make a "Frontier Report on Materials Science", and we asked him. Mr. Sun said: It is difficult to find an article without a Chinese author among the top papers in the field of materials science. There is an estimate in the industry that the contribution of Chinese scientists in the frontier field of materials science accounts for about half.
Take the report made by Mr. Yafei Sun, for example, he listed 20 new materials that will have super influence in the future. How many materials are involved in cutting-edge research with Chinese scientists? 13 kinds.
This is the truth. Next time, if we see which technology field we are lagging behind, we must not only see the gap, but also the speed at which we are catching up. Realizing this, my worries eased a little bit.
The third interesting perspective I encountered this year: In the past, we always thought that independent innovation should be done by the Chinese. But in fact, such a huge demand will definitely force Chinese companies to seek solutions and pool resources globally. For example, this year I chatted with Vivo’s friends. As you all know, Vivo, our partners who have spoken for 20 years in the New Year’s Eve, they attach great importance to their imaging capabilities. To put it bluntly, they are the ability to take pictures.
This year they also developed the technological innovation of the micro-head, that is, the mobile phone does not shake when taking pictures. The reason for developing imaging capabilities is simple. Young people nowadays like to take photos too much. Let's talk about night scenes. All users of vivo will take 100 million photos and 20 million videos every night.
How do you shoot the night scene? Of course it is a technical problem. Vivo’s friends told me that it’s not just the Chinese who are involved in solving this technical problem. They have recruited technical talents from various countries in 9 R&D centers in major cities around the world.
For example, these four: Noda Hideki, Yajima Atsushi, Umi Masazumi, Ishiguro Katsuyuki. This is the Japanese expert at their Tokyo R&D center. These people have worked in world-famous companies such as Sony, Canon, Fuji, Sharp, and Kyocera, and engaged in the research and development of imaging equipment.
These few later joined the imaging research institute opened by Chinese vivo company in Tokyo. You see, this is an international army, joining the R&D network of Chinese companies, and serving global consumers. Such scenarios are happening in Chinese companies' research institutes all over the world.
The "stuck neck" we are encountering now is the product and technology itself. A certain product, a certain technology, if he doesn't sell it to you, we have nothing to do. But what is behind the product and technology? It's human. Where people are, technology is there, and the communication and flow of people can hardly be contained. why? It's very simple. Because every person, skilled person, has to make specific life choices. Where do they need to go? Of course, it is those areas that have to be resolved, have enough challenges, and contribute more to the well-being of all mankind, and receive better treatment. How can this be contained?
Thinking of this, my worries about China's independent innovation have alleviated a bit.
The more interesting perspective I encountered this year was brought to me by Teacher Liang Ning. She said that in 2020, many things have not yet been finalized, but one thing is hard and fast, and that is the strategic determination of independent innovation. This is the most precious fruit we got this year.
Do you remember the previous years? In many fields, whether to engage in independent innovation is controversial. Some people say that if you do it yourself, it's better to buy it. Others say that doing it by yourself is too difficult, and the opportunity has passed and it is impossible. Others say that if you join globalization and rely on them, isn’t it enough?
Under the circumstances at the time, all these views had their own merits. We cannot simply say which is right and which is wrong, but by 2020, these controversies have disappeared. Independent innovation has become a consensus. Please note that consensus is not a virtual thing at all.
Behind the consensus, it means that orders, investments, and policies are placed in front of those who are ready.
This year, when I asked Nanpeng Shen of Sequoia Capital for advice, I was still a little worried. I did not expect that he was particularly excited to tell me that the market opportunities in the next few years will be particularly good. I thought he was talking about investment projects. He said that not only investment, but also a college student who graduated from this agency engineering major, the opportunity is particularly good.
You think, in the first few years, when they graduate, the best choice is to go to those big factories. But this year, just look at this table, and countless new windows of opportunity have opened. Those stuck on the neck need to be replaced by domestic products.
That means that a fast-growing startup company will surely be born. So, what are the students of this generation hesitating? Join according to what you have learned in your major!
The points just now are just some of my inner feelings when I keep asking people for advice this year. For those on the front line of innovation, you may have more perspectives. However, there is a common feeling, that is, the more we understand the current situation of China's innovation, the more we know that the level of China's innovation is constantly rising, and the less we panic.
Why not panic? Just think, China is the only country in the world that has all the industrial categories in the United Nations Industrial Classification. Although Chinese technology has shortcomings, there is no missing link. In almost all areas where the neck is stuck, China has domestically produced alternative companies. If you don't believe me, go and look at the list of listed companies on the ChiNext.
Coupled with the huge investment in scientific research funds, coupled with the people's bottom-up enthusiasm for innovation. Such a behemoth, in the past, its power may have been relatively scattered. But in 2020, someone suddenly told it, hit here, hit here, and draw the bullseye. What do you say will happen?
This is a card-neck list that has been widely circulated this year. If you turn it over, what list is this? Isn't this the task list of our generation? This is what China's innovation looks like when we grow up: when we grow up, we can turn the card-neck list into a list of opportunities.
A sentence from the French writer Camus may be able to present our complex feelings at the moment. He said, "In the middle of winter, I finally know that I have an invincible summer."