The year 2020 has been turned over, and with the ringing of the New Year's bell, there are frequent good news from the three domestic car-making forces. Weilai Auto delivered 43,728 units in 2020, an increase of 121% year-on-year; Ideal Auto delivered 32,624 units in 2020; Xiaopeng Auto delivered 27,041 units in 2020, an increase of 112% year-on-year.
However, when the Three Musketeers were still immersed in the joy of last year’s harvest, Tesla, who didn’t pay attention to military ethics, had already waved its price butcher knife and dropped the domestic model Y with its hands by 150,000. On the first day of the new year, Tesla’s official website Due to the large number of orders, the domestic new energy electric vehicle warfare is full of gunpowder.
In this regard, Li Bin, chairman of Weilai Automobile, said that Tesla Model Y has not affected Weilai, and there has been no major change in the order volume in the past two days. He Xiaopeng, CEO of Xiaopeng Motors, even said that this time, friends and merchants were quite confident in their price cuts on New Year's Day, and even the internal telephone conference was not held.
Although the three domestic carmakers are quite calm about Tesla's price cut, is this really the case? Why did Tesla, which started to drop in price last year, continue to cut prices? What impact will Tesla's price cuts have on my country's new energy vehicle industry in 2021?
On the first day of the new year, Tesla, who didn’t talk about "wu ethics", raised the price high
After New Year's Day, Tesla’s new energy pool caused by price cuts was disturbed.
According to Tesla's official website in China: The starting price of Tesla Model Y long-life version is 339,900 yuan. Previously, it was 488,000 yuan, a reduction of 148,100 yuan. The starting price of Tesla Model Y Performance high-performance version is 369,900 yuan, which was previously 535 thousand yuan, down 165,100 yuan.
Before the Model Y price cut, according to media statistics, since May last year, Tesla Model S, Model X, Model 3 and Model Y have cut prices a total of 7 times. Among them, Tesla's best-selling model Model 3 has been reduced to 249,900 yuan after multiple rounds of price cuts; the current price of the high-performance version (long battery life) has also been as low as 339,900 yuan.
So the question is, why is Tesla able to cut prices so drastically? This has to mention the super factory built by Tesla in Shanghai. Before the establishment of the factory in China, Tesla's products had to be shipped from the United States, and the cost of transportation, marketing, and parts procurement made Tesla's price high. After the establishment of the factory in China, the cost has been greatly increased, and the production capacity has also been greatly improved, and the price will naturally drop a lot.
The reason why Tesla has lowered its pricing stance is also due to the fierce competition in the Chinese market and the huge growth potential. According to Tou Zhibang’s data, Tesla’s operating income in China has been increasing in the past five years. In the three quarters this year, Tesla’s revenue in China has grown at an amazing year-on-year rate, reaching 160.69% in the third quarter. Quarterly revenue in China accounted for about 20% of total operating revenue.
In addition, the gambling agreement with Shanghai is also an important factor. Public information shows that when the super factory was built in Shanghai, Tesla signed a gambling agreement with Shanghai. The agreement stipulates that the Shanghai factory will have to pay 2.23 billion yuan in taxes every year from the end of 2023. If this condition is not met, The corresponding land must be returned. At the same time, Tesla must also invest RMB 14.08 billion in capital expenditures in the Shanghai plant in the next five years. Therefore, the land in Shanghai was sold to Tesla at a tenth of the price.
In order to reach a bet agreement with Shanghai, Tesla has also worked very hard. Last year, it has cut prices again and again. According to its recently released data, the cumulative delivery volume for the year reached 499,550, which is close to the company's chief executive. The delivery target of 500,000 vehicles set by the official Musk in 2020 is an increase of 36% from 367,500 vehicles in 2019.
As for the price cut of Tesla's Modle Y, CITIC Securities pointed out that the drop exceeded market expectations. The price of domestic Model Y has been significantly lower than that of BBA fuel vehicles of the same level. 400,000 vehicles.
Not only that, even though the price of model Y is already very low today, there is still room for price reduction. Galaxy Securities believes that, from the perspective of production capacity, the Shanghai Super Factory has added new production lines and the second phase of the factory is opened. In 2021, the production capacity of domestic Model 3/Y will reach 250,000 units/year. Model Y and Model 3 share 70% of the parts and components. The steady advancement of China's local parts supply chain will further increase the localization rate of Model Y. It is expected that the price of the basic version of Model Y still has room for a certain drop.
Behind the price cut spree, Tesla's hidden concerns are hard to understand
Although Tesla’s price reduction strategy does stimulate sales in the short term, in the long run, the price reduction strategy may do more harm than good. Part of Tesla's current value comes from the "brand premium". Blindly adopting a price reduction strategy will also adversely affect Tesla's brand tonality. Moreover, once consumers become accustomed to lower prices, subsequent price increases will It will become quite difficult.
From October 2019 to October 2020, in just one year, Model 3 has been reduced in price five times, and the actual selling price has been reduced from 355,000 yuan to 249,900 yuan, depreciating by one third in one year. Although the ever-decreasing prices continue to stimulate Tesla's sales, it also reduces consumers' trust in the brand, and this pushes consumers to other new energy manufacturers with more stable prices.
In addition, if Tesla blindly adopts a price reduction strategy to stimulate sales, it will also stimulate new local car manufacturers such as Xiaopeng and Weilai to lower prices in the largest market in China. The final outcome is the intensification of overall industry competition. Deteriorating industry competition ecology.
At present, the main SUV models that are benchmarked against Model Y in the Chinese electric vehicle market are: Weilai’s EC6 and ES6, priced at 368,000 yuan and 358,000 yuan, respectively; the ideal ideal ONE, priced at 328,000 yuan Weimar’s EX6 Plus starts at 279,900 yuan; Xiaopeng’s G3 model is even cheaper, with a starting price of 146,800.
Although Weilai said that Tesla’s price cuts have no impact on its orders, it can be observed through the Internet and Xianyu that many Weilai consumers actually canceled their order transfer orders because of Tesla’s price cuts.
Obviously, with the Tesla Model Y long-life version directly down to 339,900 yuan, it will be cheaper than the future EC6 and ES6, and the ideal ONE in the same price range. Although the two electric vehicles of Weimar and Xiaopeng are cheaper, they also have their own problems. Weimar's brand influence ranks lower among several major new energy car companies. The Xiaopeng G3 is an entry-level pure electric car, and its performance is still far behind the other models.
Although the news of Tesla’s price cuts, Weilai and Xiaopeng both said that they would not have much influence on them, but in fact they did a lot of actions. First, Weilai launched the official second-hand car NIO Certified and announced that it will operate the official self-support method. Used cars, to provide high-quality services for used car users. Weilai's official second-hand car provides users with a 7-day worry-free return service. After purchasing a car, Weilai official second-hand car users can enjoy 1 year or 30,000 kilometers of original factory extended warranty, free 7kW household charging piles, free lifetime road assistance, free lifetime car networking, and share the BaaS battery rental service.
On the day of Tesla’s price cut, Xiaopeng Motors also served a "hard dish". Its official WeChat announced that it had reached a cooperation with Livox Technology (hereinafter referred to as Livox) incubated by DJI. It will launch a new volume in 2021. The vehicle-grade lidar customized by Livox is used on the production models. Xiaopeng married Livox to seize the high ground for mass production of Lidar. This may mean that the world's first mass-produced car equipped with lidar is here.
Can the myth of new energy growth continue in 2021?
Recently, the research institute EVTank and Ivey Economic Research Institute released the "Global New Energy Vehicle Market Mid- and Long-Term Development Outlook (2025)" in Beijing. The report predicts that by 2025, the global sales of new energy passenger vehicles will increase from 2.21 million in 2019. The number of vehicles will increase to 12 million in 2025, and the average annual compound growth rate will reach 32.6%.
According to a report released by the Ivy Institute of Economic Research, in 2018, after the sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China exceeded 50% of global sales for the first time, due to the significant decline in China's domestic subsidy policy, its proportion fell to 49.3 in 2019. %. EVTank predicts that by 2025, China will remain an important part of the global new energy passenger vehicle market, and its sales will account for 45.8%.
Although Tesla’s price cuts will bear the brunt of the impact on the three car-building forces, CICC recently released a research report that believes that at the moment when the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is rapidly increasing, the price adjustment of Model Y will have limited impact on Weilai. Enterprises will go hand in hand.
Based on the changes in the model sales structure and interest and tax items, the 2020/21 net loss forecast is adjusted to 55.0/38.0 billion yuan, and the 2022 net loss forecast is 1.01 billion yuan. Based on the segment valuation method, increase the market value of the company's hardware (vehicle sales) and software (smart driving) parts. CICC maintains the rating of NIO to outperform the industry and raises the target price by 15% to $60, corresponding to 23% upside.
However, in addition to new car-building forces, other leading new energy companies should not be underestimated. Among the top three new energy vehicles in January, SAIC-GM-Wuling 36070 and BYD 26690 all beat Tesla. The second wave of new car-making forces, Baidu and Huawei, are also on the road. Recently, it has been reported that Baidu is in contact with Geely, GAC, FAW and other auto companies to discuss the possibility of establishing a joint venture company. The cooperation between car companies directly enters the field of car manufacturing.
Huawei Intelligent Automotive Solution BU was also established in May 2019, and released its full-stack intelligent automotive solution brand-Hi (Huawei Intelligent Automotive Solution). Although it promised not to build a complete vehicle for three years, it includes a brand new one. The computing and communication architecture, five intelligent systems, and multiple intelligent components of Huawei Hi have included the most valuable parts of smart cars.
New and old enemies are all around. Although Tesla’s strong entry into China has caused huge impact and pressure on China’s new energy vehicle manufacturers, it has pros and cons. Tesla’s localization in China has also promoted the new energy electric vehicle industry chain. development of.
On the evening of December 29, 2020, Ningde Times issued three announcements in a row, planning to build or expand three lithium-ion battery production base projects, with a total investment of no more than 39 billion yuan. The reason why Ningde has invested so heavily in construction is simply because it is a Tess One of the main suppliers of batteries in Pulling, Tesla's sharply increasing battery demand has provided it with sufficient order space.
With the continuous deepening of Tesla's localization, there are still a large number of domestic component suppliers, many of which are listed companies, and this list is still expanding.
For example, Fuyao Glass recently stated that it has been selected as a supplier of Tesla Model Y in the US and China. Wanfeng Aowei subsidiary has obtained orders from Tesla Model Y suppliers to supply magnesium alloy seat brackets, seat frame stamping parts and other products and services.
It can be expected that Tesla's establishment of a factory in China in order to control costs or expand the proportion of localized parts in the future will be a double benefit for many domestic supply chain manufacturers' performance and stock prices.
Source of the article: US Stock Research Institute, please indicate the copyright for reprinting.