Whether it is Ctrip, the local life service giant Meituan in the online travel market, or Haidilao and KFC in the catering industry, they are desperately sinking, and this phenomenon is particularly obvious in the field of e-commerce.
The domestic top e-commerce platforms have already made their swords in the sinking market. Pinduoduo is self-explanatory. It is itself rising in the sinking market. In addition, Jingxi, Juhuasuan, Taobao Special Edition, and Suning are all pioneers in the sinking market. As far as the current situation is concerned, the confrontation between Taobao Special Edition and Pinduoduo has become the focus of market attention.
So, what changes will the sinking market usher in?
The sinking market ushered in the year of reshaping, the "dark horse" waits for an opportunity to exit
As we all know, the sinking market in 2020 will usher in a year of reshaping. Regardless of the industry or the market, once it enters the reshaping period, it also means that it will usher in a more variable time node, and the birth of the Taobao special edition just caught up with such a trend.
According to Analysys’ analysis of the "September Mobile App TOP1000 List" released on the 15th of this month, the Taobao Special Edition APP has a monthly active growth rate of up to 43%, ranking first among comprehensive e-commerce MAU apps with over 10 million MAU. .
Taobao special edition can become a dark horse sinking the market in a short period of time, and it is also inseparable from the opportunities given by the times.
1. Entering the era of consumption upgrade, C2M is the ultimate model of industrial digitization
Nowadays, the argument for consumption upgrade is becoming more and more obvious. In the new consumer era, the public is more pursuing high-quality and inexpensive products, and low prices are no longer a weapon to harvest consumer trust.
From the perspective of the platform development path focusing on the sinking market, whether it is Jingxi, Pinduoduo or Suning, Taobao special edition, they finally converge under the C2M model. This also shows that in the sinking market, the "short-circuit economy" where factories directly face consumers is the most appropriate.
Shen Wan Hongyuan believes that C2M is a product of the digital empowerment of the industrial belt by Internet companies, which achieves a perfect match between supply and demand, and sets production on demand, greatly reducing the inventory pressure of manufacturers and optimizing their production plans. It is estimated that the scale of the national C2M market is expected to reach 1.4 trillion in 2022. The huge scale of development has become the reason for all companies to focus on C2M.
The combat effectiveness of C2M is directly related to the development speed of the platform in the future. Public data shows that Taobao Special Edition has united 1.2 million industry belt merchants in 2,000 industry belts, and 300,000 digital foreign trade factories are constantly producing cost-effective products for consumers. Among them, there are 13 factories with annual sales of over 1 billion.
Data from Pinduoduo shows that only 1,500 companies have participated in its customized R&D program within a year and a half.
In contrast, Pinduoduo's advantage in C2M is not obvious.
(Source: Shen Wan Hongyuan) However, in the long run, C2M is the only way for Pinduoduo to develop. It may be an important starting point to fundamentally eliminate the prohibition of fakes. China and Taiwan are also after Pinduoduo's long-term growth bottleneck. One of the core assets that may settle down.
However, C2M Zhongtai requires a lot of case experience. China National Finance Securities believes that Pinduoduo's Zhongtai construction is still in a very early stage, and its exploration period for Zhongtai will last for at least 3-5 years, requiring long-term verification. So, Taobao special edition, Jingxi, Suning ushered in a better opportunity to catch up.
2. Live broadcast + short video become the mainstream form of content e-commerce, which meets the needs of industry and merchants
The main label of Pinduoduo's e-commerce is social e-commerce. The market once believed that the main reason for the rise of Pinduoduo was due to social, but in fact, behind the social, it still needs content to support.
In the early days, Pinduoduo's all-pervasive teamwork and bargaining methods on social software were quite innovative and had certain entertainment attributes. To a certain extent, it caters to the needs of users in the sinking market. Therefore, Pinduoduo was able to counter-attack into a listed company in just three years and break out in the sinking market. In essence, it is inseparable from the promotion of content e-commerce.
However, the form of expression of today's content e-commerce is undergoing tremendous changes. The live broadcast + short video play has become the main theme, especially under the influence of the epidemic this year, this trend is accelerating.
In fact, Pinduoduo has already been on the live broadcast train. As early as December last year, Pinduoduo showed off its live broadcast debut. The maternal and child field big V and small package Ma Ma airborne from the outside; it went live in January this year. Live broadcast"; At the end of March, Pinduoduo's first batch of live broadcast MCNs opened. Within Pinduoduo, live broadcast has been placed in a very important strategic position.
However, there is a fundamental difference between Pinduoduo live broadcast and Taobao live broadcast. Taobao live broadcast is a typical "people looking for goods", the head anchor becomes the traffic portal, while the Pinduoduo live broadcast is more like "goods looking for people", and live broadcast is a form of display and service in the store. Which is better or worse, I think consumers have the answer.
The Taobao special edition is backed by Taobao live broadcast and can directly access mainstream content e-commerce operation models. According to the data, the Taobao special edition was launched on June 10 this year, the Internet celebrity "Cool Masks", and the dealer paid a deposit of 12.5 million yuan in advance for about an hour. After the short video channel is subsequently launched, a closed loop of "video + live broadcast" may be formed.
Relying on the ecological advantages of Taobao's live broadcast, Taobao is also accelerating the deployment of a series of live broadcast bases with industrial belts. During the year, Nan'an Industrial Belt and Quanzhou Industrial Belt have been implemented one after another. This will feed back the industry to bring merchants and form an effective industry cycle. Behind this is the logic of the continued growth of Taobao Special Edition.
How does the new round of competition play the "offensive and defensive road"?
With the rapid rise of Taobao special edition, it is undeniable that the sinking market has ushered in a new round of competition. Although Pinduoduo will be the most affected, but it may be too early to say that Pinduoduo is in danger.
Pinduoduo launched the "New Brand Plan 2.0" in Shanghai today to increase the construction of the industrial belt and attempt to incubate more independent brands by opening up an incremental market for customized products combined with tens of billions of subsidies.
Obviously, this is Pinduoduo's counterattack against latecomers in the sinking market. However, whether this counterattack is effective or not may have to be further verified by the market. After all, the fact that cannot be denied is that Pinduoduo's current situation is not optimistic.
In the second quarter of 2019, Pinduoduo's tens of billions of subsidies turned out, and its annual per capita consumption rose from 1,257 yuan to 1,467 yuan, a net increase of 210 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 92.4%. Since then, thanks to Pinduoduo's long-term subsidy strategy, annual per capita consumption has remained at a year-on-year growth rate of 75%. However, at the end of 2019, Juhuashun normalized the tens of billions of subsidies, and Pinduoduo's annual per capita consumption growth rate dropped to 52.7%. Now that Juhuasuan, JD.com, Suning, Kuaishou, and Douyin have all raised tens of billions of subsidies, Pinduoduo's style of play has lost its originality.
According to the 2020 Q2 financial report of Pinduoduo, during the period, the growth rate of monthly active users of Pinduoduo dropped from 68% to 55%, and the increased GMV also dropped from 150.6 billion in the previous quarter to around 111.5 billion; Pinduoduo’s annual per capita consumption The amount was only 15 yuan more than the previous quarter, a record low year-on-year growth, and the growth rate dropped to 27%.
(Source: E-commerce Online)
In addition, according to relevant research data, the number of SKUs for Pinduoduo's tens of billions of subsidized products suddenly doubled in July. Is there any way Pinduoduo will gradually abandon the strategy of supporting small and medium-sized businesses and turn to high-customer unit price subsidies that can quickly increase GMV growth in the short term? Suspected goods?
Then, small and medium-sized businesses may have some doubts about Pinduoduo, especially in comparison with the rapid release of Taobao's special edition, the robbing of some businesses and users of Pinduoduo is overwhelming. According to the "2020 Q2 Mobile Internet Industry Data Research Report" released by Aurora Big Data, Taobao Special Edition continues to maintain a strong growth momentum, entering the top 10 list of soaring app penetration rates across the entire network, ranking first in the comprehensive e-commerce list, leading the way The market sank and Pinduoduo failed to be shortlisted.
In addition, in addition to the Taobao special edition, Jingxi is also increasing its supply chain construction to accelerate its sinking. At the same time, WeChat, the traffic pool that Pinduoduo relies on, also launched this year's WeChat small store Jianzhi social e-commerce. The degree of Pinduoduo’s dependence on WeChat is well known, and there is already a logic for market variables.
However, it is worth noting that the confrontation between Tencent and Alibaba has extended to many areas. Although Tencent has launched a WeChat small store, the market response is not obvious. So, Pinduoduo, as a team player of the Tencent department, can be said to be a trump card of the Tencent department in the field of e-commerce. For a long period of time in the future, it will be a high probability event to maintain the traffic output of Pinduoduo. Based on WeChat's coverage of the sinking market population and Pinduoduo's first-mover advantage in the sinking market, this is still a trump card that cannot be ignored.
In general, as a latecomer to the sinking market, the Taobao special edition is coming aggressively. Backed by Ali, which has been in the e-commerce field for more than ten years and has huge user traffic, the early internal user diversion will naturally come faster some. In the long run, there will still be a tug-of-war between Pinduoduo and Taobao Special Edition, and it will be difficult to distinguish victory or defeat in the short term.
However, with the acceleration of Taobao special edition, Pinduoduo, WeChat, and Jingxi in the sinking market, there are still many variables in the future market structure in this field. It is foreseeable that the dispute over the sinking market will gradually evolve into a dispute over industrial belts. Whoever has the greater advantage will have more voice.
Source of this article: Songguo Finance, please indicate the source for reprinting.