At the Yunqi Conference on September 17, the President of Alibaba Cloud Intelligence and the Dean of the Dharma Academy released Alibaba Cloud's first cloud computer-"No Shadow" . This is a "supercomputer" that grows on the cloud. Just connect a C-Key the size of a business card holder to a screen, and you can enter the desktop of the dedicated cloud computer and access various applications and files. Wuying Cloud Computer can expand its computing power in the cloud at any time. It not only has all the capabilities of traditional computers, but also can do tasks that traditional computers cannot and can't do well, such as animation rendering, graphics design, software development, etc., which require very high computing performance. Work scene.
At the same time, Wuying supports unlimited expansion, and a single application resource can be flexibly expanded to 104-core CPU and 1.5T memory, which can easily cope with high-performance computing requirements. Wuying supports on-demand configuration performance, the price is half of the traditional PC under the same performance, and it supports unlimited upgrades. It does not need to be eliminated and replaced every 3-5 years. All data of Wuying is stored in the cloud, and it is not afraid of computer loss or viruses. It enjoys the same level of security protection as Alibaba Cloud Data Center.
It can be said that Wuying appeared at the right time. Because of the impact of this epidemic, many companies have to start working from home. Even many Internet companies and high-tech companies have announced that home office will be normalized in the future. Some people are happy and some are worried. Although the real economy has been hit to some extent, the stock prices of some companies focusing on online services have risen sharply this year. Take the video conferencing software ZOOM as an example. The recent high value of its stock price is equivalent to 5 times that of the beginning of the year, and the stock prices of Amazon, Facebook, and Google have also reached record highs.
It can be said that telecommuting has greatly accelerated the speed of popularization because of the epidemic. Like the financial industry where the author works, he invested a lot of money to build VPNs and build cloud computers to facilitate remote office work for employees. Whether it is data processing, it is all completed by migrating to the cloud. Digital transformation as soon as possible is an opportunity for many industries. For example, because a data analysis company of a friend of mine has prepared cloud office early, this epidemic has also helped it occupy more market shares.
The PC, which has been with mankind for half a century, is still our main daily productivity tool, but as far as the PC industry is concerned, it seems that it lacks a little vitality and innovation breakthroughs are lacking. Looking back at history, it is often the breakers outside the industry that change the industry.
When we stand at the time node of 2020 and start looking at the future of personal computers, we need very powerful imagination.
PC industry needs breakers
According to statistics, in 2019, the annual sales of personal computers reached 268 million units, the first increase since 2011, but the growth rate was only 2.7%. The world's five major manufacturers (Lenovo, HP, Dell, Apple, Acer) monopolized 80% of the market Sales. Except for Apple, the total annual profits of the four major PC manufacturers do not exceed 10 billion U.S. dollars, and the profit margin is only 3%. That's why many people assert that the PC industry is "dead".
But is this really the case? According to the financial report for the fourth quarter of 2019 disclosed by Intel, the net profit under the US GAAP was US$6.905 billion, and the major supplier of graphics chips, Nvidia, was US$3 billion, not to mention that Microsoft’s profit was as high as US$40 billion. Behind the PC industry chain there are hundreds of small and large suppliers of parts and software applications, and the total profits are also considerable.
The PC industry is not dead, it is the assembly plants of the PC industry struggling to survive. High-tech industries generally have this characteristic. Only with high-threshold core competitiveness can they maintain high profits, and high profits can be invested in the future to form a new moat. I am afraid that it is impossible for PC manufacturers to revolutionize themselves.
History is always surprisingly similar. The founder of IBM, Watson Sr., once asserted in 1943 that the future world would only need 5 computers. This is exactly the same as the 2006 Nokia president mocking the fragility of Apple's mobile phones and the inconvenient buttons on the screen.
In the context of the rapid advancement of science and technology, the PC, a high-tech product that was once proud, also urgently needs breakers.
But this time, computer hardware or software companies, and Internet giants may redefine the personal computer.
Cloud computing is the foreseeable future PC form
There have been two bright lines driving the development of personal computers for a long time: one is performance improvement, and the other is price reduction, and behind these are the dark lines driven by technology. Over the years, we have seen various forms from desktops to notebooks, all-in-ones, tablets, and smaller smart terminals. Behind these are numerous small technological breakthroughs combined to form major changes.
Although computer software has been urging the improvement of hardware performance, there is an upper limit on the performance requirements of personal life scenarios, and we will not pursue performance infinitely . Usually we use a PC. A small part of the time may require very powerful performance, video rendering, and model analysis, but the PC can't afford it. Most of the time we just write documents and browse the web, and the performance of the PC will be idle. In recent years, the development of cloud computing and the popularization of 5G wireless networks have naturally spawned a cloud + client PC development technology route, which has also become a reasonable way to solve the above-mentioned lack of computing power and idle pain points.
However, there are still some problems with cloud computers.
The first thing to bear is the cost. The life cycle cost of cloud computers has not been reduced to a competitive level . Also consider the replacement cost of the enterprise, the use of existing equipment and facilities has a strong dependence. Even going to the cloud is a gradual update process, it is difficult to go to the cloud all at once. Secondly, there are security issues, especially data that involves sensitive company data or confidentiality requirements , such as topographic maps in the survey and design industry, which are not allowed to go to the cloud.
Different industries have related issues. This requires the support of laws and regulations and the establishment of cloud computing industry standards. It will take some time. Then there is the problem of network transmission speed. At present, the bandwidth of many offices and residences is not wide enough, the mobile 5G network has not been fully deployed, and the network speed and bandwidth do not support the large-scale application of cloud computers. Of course, these will be resolved gradually over time, and there is hope for some people to use cloud computers first.
If we look at the past from the present, this is the same reason we used to worry about the lack of electricity, and we need to build power stations in every household. Electricity can become an infrastructure like water and gas. Is it possible for computing power to become an infrastructure like electricity and the network?
Judging from the current development trend, computing power is entirely possible to become the new infrastructure of this era. This is also driven by cost and scenario. The former determines supply and the latter represents demand. In terms of cost, when the cost of the cloud + client's life cycle is lower than that of a personal computer, it will promote the widespread use of cloud computers.
The average service life of a personal computer is now 5 years, and many people even need to change computers in 1-2 years. The cost of a computer's life cycle is not low, and it may cost 2-3000 yuan per year. But the computer is idle most of the time, and the real time is not much. If we buy computing power in the cloud, personal costs will be greatly reduced. At the same time, cloud computers allow us to enjoy the best configuration and the latest software applications at any time, reducing the management and maintenance costs of personal clients.
In addition, the needs of the scene are also very important. Cloud computers can share resources, optimize the configuration of computing power, and can be used in many special scenarios. For example, engineering design and model analysis require instantaneous computing power. No matter how good the personal computer is, it may take dozens of hours of rendering time. If it can be completed quickly by the cloud computing power, it is a good case. For another example, in severe cold or hot conditions, complex equipment and facilities are very prone to failure, leading to computer interruption or file loss or damage. If you put files and computing power in the cloud, then you are guaranteed. There are also places where unified management is required. For example, certain software licenses of design companies are limited, and everyone has to remotely access when working outside. In the financial industry, there is a high demand for confidentiality of data and files, etc., and the cloud can be used to solve the pain points.
Of course, if there is a breakthrough in display technology, the screen will be ubiquitous, and the small client and wireless connection technology will satisfy various needs such as office and entertainment at any time.
Ali redefines PC
With the significant increase in wired and wireless network capacity and speed, more and more cloud software applications, consumers are also used to online collaborative work in the cloud. The ICT industry is generally optimistic about the technical route of cloud + client, but so far there has been no epoch-making product. The essential reason lies in the high cost of cloud infrastructure. It is difficult to make a profit to build a huge cloud service just for one product. The current industry-leading cloud service providers have the greatest potential to become the breakers leading this cloud computing revolution.
With the release of the first cloud computer "No Shadow" by Ali, the prelude of "Cloud Computer" has begun, which I believe is enough to redefine the development trend of the personal computer industry.
Viewed from the outside of the product, Wuying is small enough and portable, and the size is about the same as a business card case. It can be completely fake and can be put in a pocket easily and casually.
From a functional point of view, this terminal achieves the perfect realization of the function of connecting the cloud and the user, and reduces the cost of hardware as much as possible. This is a complete dimensionality reduction blow to traditional personal computers:
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High-definition output, easy to connect : support 4K display output, a Type-C cable can handle power supply, video, data transmission, etc. As long as there is a screen, it can be connected anytime, anywhere.
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Cross-platform and multi-terminal, rich scene use : equipped with self-developed component desktop system, seamless switching of Windows/Linux ecology, providing native office industry software, cloud disk, OA and other applications. Thanks to the accumulation of Alibaba Cloud for many years, the cloud application ecosystem is also quite large enough to meet individual daily needs.
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Powerful performance , dimensionality reduction: a single machine provides up to 104-core CPU, 1.5T memory, and the entire system comes standard with 2.4G/5G MIMO antenna, supporting high-speed wireless connection. This performance is a peak that traditional PCs can never surpass.
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Security and convenience : Many people may be worried about data security. The security technology adopted by Wuying enjoys the same level of security protection capabilities as the Alibaba Cloud data center. From a professional point of view, Alibaba Cloud definitely has a much higher security level than personal computers. Even if force majeure occurs and your computer is broken, Aliyun's backup is multi-centric and can still be accessed at any time, not to mention the protection against various network attacks.
For enterprise-level users, the advantages of Alibaba Cloud Computer are even more obvious. In addition to the security and high performance mentioned above, maintenance costs are also very important considerations for enterprises. In terms of operation and maintenance, traditional PCs often require a huge IT operation and maintenance department. A single operation and maintenance personnel to manage 500 computers is the limit. Daily maintenance, system management, and upgrades require tens of thousands of operations and require a lot of time. The cloud computer only needs to perform batch operation and management on the cloud server, and one operation and maintenance personnel can configure thousands of terminal devices, and the operation and maintenance expenditure is only one-tenth of the traditional PC.
Today, both the supply capacity and market acceptance of cloud services have matured, and the demand for cloud computing scenarios and the entire industry are ready to go.
The popularization of consumer-oriented products often takes a long time. Computers in the modern sense were invented in the 1950s and could be borne by individuals in the 1970s. The popularization in the 1980s and 1990s was also a development of decades. Of innovative products.
Today, Alibaba Cloud has redefined the PC with "No Shadow", and this industry that was said to be "dead" is rejuvenating.