(The picture comes from the network)
Text | Yi Buer
Source | Mantis Finance (ID: TanglangFin)
Sheep's life is clearly arranged from birth.
Lamb is a delicious Chinese dish. It is said that no sheep can completely walk out of Shaanxi, Henan, Inner Mongolia, etc .; wool is a textile material with good thermal insulation, and "薅 毛" has also become a popular word on the Internet; Commodities like combs ...
Now, goat milk powder has become the "darling" of the consumer market.
According to the data from "China Goat Milk Powder Industry Development Research", in 2014, China's goat milk powder market size was 3.5 billion yuan. Since then, it has maintained a market increase of more than 25% almost every year. To 10 billion yuan, by 2020, it is expected to skyrocket to 20 billion yuan. Among them, the market size of infant formula milk powder will exceed 10 billion yuan.
In the mainstream milk powder market, all kinds of dairy companies that have "killed their eyes" have begun to compete on this subdivision track. Among them, in addition to Ausnutria, Yili, Junlebao, Beinmei and other big brands have set up goat milk powder track.
Undoubtedly, although the entry of giants in any industry means more fierce competition, it can also upgrade consumer awareness and promote the development of the entire industry to a more mature stage.
So, in the face of the tens of billions of blue ocean markets, can goat milk entered by the dairy industry "Qianlong" be able to usher in a "bull market"?
"Sheep" exhalation is an inevitable consumption upgrade, but also a must to open up competition
Catalyzed by the melamine incident in 2008, goat milk powder entered the mass consumer market.
But the goat milk powder at that time was only the "spare tire" choice for consumers who lost confidence in the milk powder market.
In recent years, as more and more post-80s and post-90s have become the main force of maternal and infant consumption, milk powder has also embarked on a road to upgrade consumption. Goat milk powder has also increasingly entered the consumer's field of vision, thus showing a trend of blowout from a market scale of hundreds of millions to tens of billions.
After all, there is a saying in the milk powder industry: "Who can take the first step in breast milk research can break the current market pattern."
A very important reason why goat milk powder is selected by consumers is that it is believed to have smaller fat balls and is rich in unsaturated fatty acids, which is more easily absorbed by the body, and the content of whey protein and casein in goat milk It is also considered closer to breast milk.
IResearch's "2019 China Young Parenting Family User Insight Report" also supports this. The report shows that in 2019, Chinese young parenting family users pay more attention to ingredients / formulations when purchasing milk powder, followed by brands. In terms of formula, consumers pay more attention to the digestible absorption of milk powder.
As a result, goat milk powder that fits the core needs of consumers began to enter its "highlight" moment.
According to data from the China Maternal and Child Research Institute, in the first half of 2019, online sales of infant milk powder fell by 7.7%, but goat milk powder increased by 24.8% year-on-year.
In fact, in addition to the unique characteristics of goat milk powder, the arrival of the "highlight" moment, there are reasons for China's family structure.
Guosen Securities ’report shows:“ Due to the slowdown of the new population, the future development of the industry is mainly driven by the “price” factor: under the “4 + 2 + 1” inverted triangle family structure, consumers in the maternal and child market can afford Enhancement; quality and safety are important considerations, and price sensitivity is low; consumers are willing to pay premiums for high-quality, high-security, and high-value-added maternal and child products.
This also means that more and more young families are willing to have fewer children, while concentrating on providing the best quality resources to their children. Therefore, although it is more expensive than milk powder, the goat milk powder with the label of "good absorption" and "closer to breast milk" has opened its own consumption stage.
"Mantis Finance" saw that "Sheep" exhaled, on the one hand, although it is an inevitable consumption upgrade, on the other hand, it is also necessary for dairy companies to start differentiated competition.
After all, when the slowdown in the growth rate of the newborn population is reflected in the dairy market, it has become a traditional way to expand the market with the "newborn birth rate", and has evolved to rely on the "newborn per capita consumption" to drive the market. increase.
At present, China's milk-based dairy market is already a competitive Red Sea. Whether it is milk powder, normal temperature milk, fresh milk or other categories, it has been selected by Aoyou, Feihe, Junlebao, Yili, Mengniu, Guangming, New Hope and other giants firmly control the market.
All forces are trying their best to fight for a cow. The competition is fierce, and it tends to be homogenous: there are formula milk from Australia, some from Feihe; some from Mengniu, Trensu, Chunzhen, Yili, Jindian, An Mu Xi; the fresh milk market that New Hope hopes to explore has a bright future ...
Goat milk powder has become a new growth point targeted by dairy companies.
According to the statistics of the milk powder circle, there are currently more than 40 dairy companies producing infant formula milk powder, 90 products have been registered through the formula, and some brands have entered the Chinese market through cross-border purchases. Among them, Jiabeite under Ausnutria achieved revenue of 2.856 billion in 2019, ranking first in the sales of goat milk powder in the market.
Driven by Jiabeit, dairy companies "Qianlong" Yili, Feihe, Junlebao, Beiyinmei and Jianhe all joined the goat milk powder track.
Entering the era of "cows and sheep", goat milk still has multiple tests
The entry of the dairy company "Qianlong" will on the one hand aggravate the Matthew effect, but on the other hand, this is also a good time for the goat milk market that has just stepped out of the development pace.
There is no doubt that the era of goat milk consumption is coming, but in the market of continuous expansion, goat milk wants to enter the era of "cows and sheep", in the view of "Mantis Finance", it needs to undergo multiple tests.
First of all, the most serious problem in the goat milk market right now is the single product structure and insufficient segmentation.
It is undeniable that goat milk wants to fully expand the market. In the early stage, it chose the most easy-to-start maternal and child track. Taking goat milk powder as an entry point to gain a firm foothold in the industry and continue to cultivate on this track is a good choice .
However, if goat milk wants to continue to seize the market share firmly occupied by cow milk, entering the era of "coexistence of cattle and sheep", the current single goat milk powder product structure undoubtedly lacks product form innovation and cannot cover a broader market group. .
Therefore, goat milk urgently needs a large single product other than goat milk powder to enter the mass consumer market and cultivate consumers' consumption habits of drinking goat milk. Just like milk, it is precisely because of the popularity of normal-temperature pure milk that people have included drinking milk into their daily habits.
At present, Jiabeite, a subsidiary of Aoyou, has extended the layout of goat milk powder to the adult market. Driven by giants, there may be more dairy enterprises to carry out the layout of the entire industry chain, strengthen consumers' awareness of goat milk, and cultivate the habit of goat milk consumption.
Secondly, high-price goat milk products have hindered its rapid horse racing in the dairy market.
According to data from the China Maternal and Child Research Institute, as far as the goat milk powder market is concerned, the overall price is on the high side. High-end (290 ~ 390 yuan) products accounted for the highest proportion, reaching 30.33%; followed by ultra-high-end products, accounting for 22.78%, the total ratio of the two exceeded 50%; while low-end products accounted for only 26% of the share.
In the context of the decline in the country's new population trend, the concept of "eugenics and eugenics" consumption upgrades, the high-end of dairy products is inevitable for development, but at the same time, for goat milk, it also hinders its rapid running in the dairy market Rodeo.
If a product wants to occupy the market quickly, it will educate users in the form of "small profits but quick sales". However, currently, sheep breeding is more difficult than cattle breeding in the breeding industry. The scarcity of milk cannot be produced on a large scale, resulting in expensive goat milk, which can only meet the purchase needs of a few consumers for the time being, and cannot be as extensive as cow milk. Spread the market.
This requires the entire goat milk industry to speed up the construction of upstream milk sources, and strengthen the supply chain moat through self-built milk source bases and expansion of breeding scale.
Finally, with the expansion of the market and the increase of brands, the homogeneous competition in the milk market may be staged again.
For now, the market structure of goat milk powder mainly presents the "three-legged" trend of pure domestic brands, domestic brands of imported milk sources, and overseas brands.
The domestic goat milk powder brands are mainly Youzi lamb, St. Tramu, Bekangxi, Betega, Heshi, etc., while the domestic brands of imported milk sources are Jiabeit, Lanhe, Carlotta, Cobbs, Dora, and other brands are represented. Kerui Kang, Qi Fu Yun You, etc. are also typical of hot overseas brands.
In a "blue ocean" market, all dairy companies want to get a share of the goat milk market. With the continuous expansion of the market and the continuous increase of brands, the homogeneous competition in the milk market will inevitably be staged again in the goat milk market.
Therefore, for brands entering the goat milk market, especially small and medium-sized brands that cannot compare with the dairy company "Qianlong" 's more complete industrial chain, higher research and development capabilities, and more driving resources, find differentiated competitiveness as soon as possible Only by entering the consumer's mental ladder can we avoid being eliminated from the upcoming competition.
In general, the goat milk market is in a booming period of development. The vast blue ocean market has both "danger" and "opportunity". As goat milk powder is more and more accepted and recognized by the consumer market, it may become a new fulcrum to drive the market into the era of "cows and sheep simultaneously", but it may also end up in the environment of scarce milk sources and fierce market competition. In the "one acre three points" of the mother and child race track.
Chinese food industry analyst Zhu Danpeng believes, "Goat milk powder, organic milk powder, and special powder have become a core point and focus of the entire second half of the competition for dairy companies. If the comprehensive strength of the dairy companies and the team's landing ability do not match this strategy, they will It's a drag, if it can be grasped well, it is definitely good, so the subdivision area is actually a double-edged sword. "
So, can goat milk usher in a "bull market"? Just wait for the time to hand in the answer sheet.
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