(The picture comes from the network)
Text | Chen Xi
Source | Mantis Finance (ID: TanglangFin)
The movie theaters, which could not be opened for a long time, were forced to go to the rental venues to take wedding photos in addition to the self-help sideline of delivering food, ice cream and popcorn.
Not only that, but recently, with the suggestion of "the movie theaters and other confined spaces will not be opened at the press conference of the State Council", many small and medium-sized movie theaters that could not support it have shown the "end of the drama" of their own destiny.
On Douyin, a movie theater about to shut down showed in a video: "We have been open 24 hours a day throughout the year, a total of 164,847 movies have been screened, and 4,134,602 customers have been received ... April 2020 The store will be permanently closed on the 17th. "
The cinema line is falling fast, and the ticketing platform will not be too good. It is foreseeable that ticketing platforms and movie theaters, which are themselves in the winter of film and television, will become industries that will be erased in 2020.
Of course, just like the overused phrase "No winter will not pass, no spring will not come", the ticketing platform frozen in this winter will eventually usher in its own spring. However, how many platforms can sustain the spring blossoms? What should the industry back then back to blood? And when the industry is forced to reshuffle and reshape, what kind of pattern will be staged?
Efforts to survive the movie ticketing platform of film and television "Winter", "Frozen" in 2020
If we compare the film industry chain to a river, the river in the film market is now dry up, blocked in the middle, and blocked downstream.
1. Upstream drying up: Capital withdrawal and difficult studio start.
Under the influence of Fan Bingbing's tax evasion in 2018, capitals have withdrawn from the film and television industry. The film and television industry has entered the status quo of "rice-free cooking".
In an interview with China Economic Daily, we can see that in the last week of December 2019, Hengdian Film and Television City announced only 22 film crews, including only 8 film crews. In previous years, the New Year period was the booming period of Hengdian Film and Television City, and it was even exaggerated to the point that it needed to be called to shoot scenes.
An executive of a film distribution company has previously analyzed that if the film and television industry still cannot attract capital in the second half of 2019, the number of movie records and filming continues to decline, and "2020 will be more difficult than it is now."
The reality is far cruel than predicted. 2020 is not only difficult, but almost directly wiped out by the epidemic. Until the end of March, the crew of Hengdian and Xiangshan's two major film and television cities began to resume work, and most of them were TV series.
Under this situation, how many movies can be produced in 2020?
2. Midstream blocking: The film source is accumulated, and the release time is infinitely delayed.
There are few new upstream movies, but the films produced are also blocked in the air.
Seven of the Chinese New Year's films, "Liang Mom", "Big Winner" and "Fat Dragon Crossing the River" have chosen to play online, while the other four movies are in a state of backlog.
Not only that, Hollywood blockbuster movies such as "Mulan", "Black Widow 2", "Speed and Passion 9" and "007: No Time to Die" are also waiting for the audience.
Without a film, how can I sell tickets?
3. Downstream downstream: The theater is closed, and there is no hope of resuming work.
The theater has been closed since the Spring Festival.
In March, a total of 16 theaters in Xinjiang, Qinghai, Sichuan, Gansu, Chongqing, Fujian and other places temporarily resumed screenings. However, under the risk of a potential epidemic, national movie theaters were urgently suspended.
The major theaters originally pinned their hopes on May 1st, and they can even find the rehearsals on April 30 and May 1 on the Taobao ticket.
However, on April 15th, CDC once again recommended that movie theaters and other confined spaces should not be opened for the time being, and the industry immediately reported that the movie theaters will open in October. If the rumors come true, the four most important stages of the film industry-the Spring Festival, summer, National Day and Chinese New Year stalls, will lose the first three, and the hope of the movie industry to "turn over" in 2020 is completely shattered.
Without the skin, Mao will be attached? There are no movies to broadcast, and the ticket company has completely shut down.
At present, the two major ticketing agencies, Cat's Eye Entertainment and Taobao Tickets, have issued a series of loss warnings: Cateye Entertainment disclosed in the 2019 annual report that the Chinese New Year stalls refunded up to 200 million yuan; and the parent company of the Taobao ticket Alibaba Pictures released profit Warning, it is estimated that in the fiscal year ending March 31, 2020, the net loss attributable to the company's owners will be about 1.1 billion to 1.2 billion yuan. This figure is nearly 4 times higher than the loss of 254 million yuan in the previous fiscal year.
"Mantis Finance" found that the "Tao ticket", which had an entrance on the main page of Taobao, has now been found.
Even worse, the loss in the film and television industry has just begun.
The Southern Metropolis Daily once made a poll and asked netizens “Will you go to the cinema to watch movies in the near future”? The result of the vote says it all: 380,000 netizens participated in the vote, of which more than 300,000 chose “to watch at home” .
This also means that, under the awareness of the safety precautions brought by the epidemic, even if the theater opens the door, not many people will be willing to go to the movie immediately. After all, according to Marros ’s theory of needs, movies are spiritually satisfying needs and can be delayed.
Therefore, no matter what aspect, the movie ticketing platform originally supported by the film and television "Winter" will soon be "frozen" in 2020.
The ticketing platform may die in spring even if it has survived the winter
Alibaba Pictures, the parent company of Taobao Tickets, said in its profit warning: "At present, Alibaba Pictures has sufficient cash reserves and its operations will not be affected." But is this a soothing to investors? Or does the ticketing platform company really have enough capacity to hold the theater open for business?
"Mantis Finance" believes that the ticketing platform is far less relaxed than they have shown.
The financial report for the fiscal year of 2019 has not yet been announced. We can get a glimpse of the 2019 financial report of Cat Eye Entertainment.
At the end of 2019, Cat Eye's cash was indeed very abundant, at 1.54 billion yuan. But in 2020, the situation faced by Cat's Eye is that there is no income, only expenditure.
First look at income. Judging from the financial report, there are three main sources of revenue for Cat Eye Entertainment: online entertainment ticketing services, entertainment content services, that is, film production income, and advertising service income for related parties. Among them, ticketing revenue and film production revenue are the largest, accounting for 90% of the total revenue. Now that the film and television industry is shut down, the income of these wholly dependent on film and television is bound to be severely affected, and ticketing platforms have nothing to do.
Let's look at expenditure. Cat ’s Eye ’s financial report shows that the operating expenses of the ticketing platform are not low, excluding the cost of content distribution and production, as well as the cost of maintaining the normal operation of the ticketing system, property fees, rental fees, staff salaries and other expenses. These fixed expenditures will not be reduced because the cinema is not started. For Cat's Eye, if it is at the 2019 level, this number will be 880 million yuan.
In addition, there are various administrative expenses and financial expenses totaling 450 million yuan.
Judging from the report alone, the cash of the ticketing platform barely covers the expenditure in 2020. However, Cat's Eye still has a high amount of debt, and its borrowing is as high as 1.161 billion yuan. For normal operation, Cat Eye needs to get the debtor ’s debt extension. Otherwise, just paying off the debt will run out of cat-eye cash. In addition, after the cinema opens, the ticketing platform needs more food and grass to attract consumers to enter the cinema, and there is a tough battle to burn money.
In addition, there are too many uncertainties in the external environment. Even if the ticketing platform survives the winter, it may die in the spring.
1. The film-making party will not be able to support the spring, and it will be turned around.
Even if the ticketing platform can last until the cinema opens, the production company may not be able to support it for so long. Once the capital chain is unsustainable, they will inevitably not sit back and wait, and they will definitely find ways to break the situation.
In fact, someone has already tried it. Xu Zheng was the first person to eat crabs.
During the Spring Festival, seeing that the movie was hopeless, Xu Zheng's Huanxi Media sold "Liang Mom" for 630 million yuan to ByteDance. This price is basically equal to the guaranteed income that Huanxi Media expects to receive.
Xu Zheng's move was called "treachery" by the film industry, undermining the industry's basic rules. So far, no one has followed him.
However, we must see that no one is following because the film production company can still support it at present, and the worries are greater than the reality : on the one hand, the film production company does not want to offend the theater line, fearing that once it is blacklisted by the theater line, other films will be no longer. Cannot enter the theater line; on the other hand, not everyone is Xu Zheng. ByteDance is willing to spend a lot of money to buy Xu Zheng's "囧 妈", also fancy Xu Zheng's fame. If other film producers imitate Xu Zheng, it is likely that they will be "beaten down" by the online platform. They will not be able to sell for a good price, but will lower their prices.
However, when the theater opens its doors indefinitely, and under the pressure of huge funds, will the film production companies remain as they are now? Will they "sell" the movie to the video site in order to get back to their books quickly? You know, many years ago, the first choice of TV series was to go to the stars, and now it is not uncommon to choose a video website for the first time.
Once the movie production company chooses the network starter, it will be the box office cake of the theater line and the ticketing platform. The ticketing platform will face a situation of hopeless return.
2. The theater joined the battle and the industry was forced to reshuffle.
For the ticketing platform, there is another hidden concern, that is, the theater line platform "takes advantage of your illness and kills you" and seizes the opportunity to regain the initiative of pricing movie tickets.
In the past few years, movie ticketing platforms have been frantically burning money, attracting consumers to place orders on mobile phones through ultra-low fares of 9.9 yuan and 19.9 yuan, which has defeated many theaters' own ticket purchase platforms.
The cinema has lost the ticket booking channel and subsequently lost the right to set the fare.
Qiu Hongtao, vice president of Taihe Entertainment, once described this phenomenon as "this is almost the farthest distance in the world. The audience stands at the door of the theater, but the theater does not know who they are and what they want to see."
After the ticket market is cleared with one click, these theaters that were caught by surprise by the ticketing platform because of hindsight will use this opportunity to take advantage of the opportunity to launch more favorable packages and more convenient ticket purchase channels to get rid of ticketing The clamping of the platform will bring the audience back to its own platform?
In short, it's almost summer, but for Cat's Eye and Taobao tickets, their winter is still very long, and spring is still far away.
This content is [Mantis Finance] original,
Only represent personal views, without authorization, no one can use in any way, including reprinting, extracting, copying or creating mirror images.
Some pictures are from the Internet, and the copyright ownership has not been verified. They are not used for commercial purposes. If there is any infringement, please contact the author.
Mantis Finance (WeChat ID: TanglangFin):
• Pan-Finance New Media.
• Who was killed by the WeChat 100,000+ exposure article "" Wei Mi Xiu "? 》 Creators such as;
• Focus on: new business (including live entertainment, short video and other major entertainment), new marketing, new consumption (including new retail), listed companies, new finance (including financial technology), blockchain and other fields.
