https://www.zhihu.com/question/312115311/answer/1147290243
U.S. Treasury bonds were not planned to be repaid as soon as they were born, but they were able to borrow more and more, and they did not plan to repay them in the future.
To understand the US economy, we must first understand the national debt, not the US dollar. Treasury bonds are the core of the US Treasury. A general history of the United States is the development history of Treasury bonds, as the American economist John Gordon said:
"In the 1870s, national debt helped us win our independence. From the 1880s to the 1960s, national debts earned the highest credit rating for the United States, and European funds were able to flow into the United States, helping the US economy grow rapidly. In the 1960s, We used the national debt to save the United States. In the 1930s, we used the national debt to save the US economy. In the 1940s, we used the national debt to save the world. There is no doubt that the US national debt is not only the unparalleled gospel of the United States, but also the unparalleled gospel of all mankind. "
1. The United States was born in Treasury bonds and has no intention of paying off
In 1783, the War of Independence ended and it was supposed to be a year to celebrate victory, but members of the United States Congress fled everywhere: Philadelphia-Princeton-Annapolis-New York, which caused Congress to be unable to meet because of insufficient numbers.
The reason is simple: the veterans are asking for salary, the government has no money and is forced to evade debts.
The United States relied on debt to win the war of independence and faced $ 75 million in debt at birth. What is the concept of this number? According to statistics, the US GDP was 160 million US dollars at that time, and the debt was only doubled.
More intuitively, in the same period, the European hegemony, the second largest in the world, and France, which imposed heavy taxes, had a fiscal revenue of 500 million livres a year, and 75 million US dollars was equivalent to 400 million livres. At that time, the United States was just an extremely poor agricultural colonial country. This is analogous to the fact that an African country now owes the United States the equivalent of 80% of China ’s annual fiscal revenue.
In short, this is an astronomical figure.
And the federal government at that time did not have the power to tax. Jiang Shan was made out, but the United States was negotiated. The people first had the government. The big brothers of 13 states tried to prevent the central government from interfering with their independence and freedom. It was impossible to give the federal government strong taxation powers. Even during the War of Independence, the Continental Congress (the predecessor of the federal government) did not have the power to collect taxes and maintained operations through donations from various states.
Therefore, it is impossible to repay by taxation.
This is what makes the United States different: it has huge debts before it starts to tax. Generally, countries have fiscal revenue first, and they only borrow when the revenue cannot cover the expenditure. The United States happened just the other way around, with debt before taxes.
The money was borrowed from France, the Netherlands, and other European countries. The money owed must always be paid back. You can't let Europe beat it again.
At that time, the United Kingdom played a good role in the national debt, and the United States used local materials to imitate the United Kingdom to establish a national debt system.
Treasury bonds have two benefits: 1. Openness and transparency, and states will be more at ease; 2. Since the buyers are the wealthy class at that time, this will unite the upper class closely around the government, and the rise and fall of the government and the elite class. Interests are tied together.
The government and the state are satisfied with two effects.
As a result, Congress wrote the federal government's taxation rights and debt issuance rights into the Constitution. The first paragraph of Article 1 of the 1787 Constitution states that "Congress has the power to stipulate and levy taxes ... to repay U.S. Treasury bonds and to fund the joint defense of the United States and the welfare of the whole nation." Pay attention to its wording, taxation is first of all to repay debts.
In 1790, the first batch of US Treasury bonds was launched, totaling $ 71 million, accounting for 38% of GDP. Due to the huge amount of money, the United States did not intend to pay off completely, but took the opportunity to create a huge and permanent national debt market, constantly borrowing the new and the old, forming a symbiotic mechanism between the government and the gold owner for benefit sharing and risk sharing. Set a large capitalist.
It can also be seen from here that the United States was born in a country controlled by big capitalists, and they are the largest creditors of the United States, and so far it is.
Thus, a fiscal and financial system based on national debt was established. Planner Hamilton is known as the "Father of National Debt" and becomes the head of the $ 10 bill.
When the United States was born, it laid the basic fiscal logic of the country: National debt is not a debt, but a means of income. Its understanding of national debt and taxation is completely different from that of China.
In the future in the United States, once the government has to spend a lot of money, it must issue bonds instead of raising taxes. In 1803, the United States bought Louisiana from Napoleon at a price of 15 million US dollars, relying on the issue of 5% interest national debt in the European market.
Since the purchasers of national debts are all big capitalists, the federal government must maintain good credit and not default, which is simply "just exchanged", otherwise it will directly shake the ruling foundation. Till now, the US debt has not defaulted.
Since the United States was poor and poor at that time, it paid more attention to the control of the scale of national debt. From 1790 to 1800, the national debt balance increased by only 10 million US dollars, accounting for 17% of GDP.
2. The only time in history to pay off the national debt
The United States once had "reformed the evil".
In the 19th century, the rise of American democracy, equality and freedom were greatly welcomed, and the second great awakening was liberated.
Several successive presidents in the new century considered national debt to be nationalism and the economic privilege of the rich. They all advocate reducing the financial power of the federal government, strictly restricting the power of the central government, and realizing the zeroing of national debts with fiscal surplus.
Between 1800 and 1812, the two presidents, Jefferson and Madison, used fiscal surpluses to repay their national debt, reducing the balance of national debt by half, from $ 83 million to $ 45 million, accounting for only 5.7% of GDP.
From 1812 to 1815, the second war of independence broke out between the United States and Britain. The United States relied on national debt to win the war. The national debt balance soared from 45 million US dollars to 125 million US dollars, an increase of 2.8 times, once reaching 15% of GDP.
The war did not interrupt the historical process of zeroing out the national debt.
In 1829, the ultra-democrat Jackson assumed the presidency, inherited Jefferson's "will," and insisted on eliminating the privileged status of the elite class. Jackson believed that national debt was a means for the privileged class to control the United States and exploit the public.
By 1836, Jackson used a fiscal surplus to pay off all national debts, the only time in American history.
Jackson's policies have greatly damaged the interests of the elite. On January 30, 1835, President Jackson was assassinated. This was the first assassination of the President in American history. The murderer was sentenced to mental illness and was put into a lunatic asylum.
3. War regenerates national debts and pays debts indefinitely
The policies of President Jackson made the big capitalists afraid that they united to form the Whig Party and controlled the federal government during this period. They naturally hope to unite with national debt and control the country while sharing the fruits of economic development.
The Mexican War broke out in 1846 and annexed Texas and California. The cost of the war was as high as $ 64 million. In 1849, the balance of US Treasury bonds was 63.1 million US dollars.
Beginning in the 1930s, the United States introduced the first industrial revolution, and the economy operated at a high speed. Before the outbreak of the Civil War in 1860, the fiscal budget was balanced, but the balance of national debt remained almost unchanged, or about 65 million US dollars.
At this time, the United States had no intention of clearing its debts, constantly borrowing new ones to repay old ones, and turning national debt into perpetual debt. There is a joke in China: Why should we repay the money we borrowed? It fits the thoughts of American capitalists. At the beginning of the founding of the People's Republic of China, the national debt system came back.
The Civil War (1861-1865) killed 600,000 people, while the population of the United States was only 30 million, which was very tragic. Military expenditure naturally comes from treasury bonds. The annual issuance of treasury bonds has increased more than 20 times compared to 1861. The balance of treasury bonds exceeded 1 billion US dollars in 1863. After the war ended in 1865, it surged to 2.756 billion US dollars, accounting for 30% of GDP. Taxes only account for 9.3% of military spending.
In this war, the south of the slave economy did not have a national debt system and no taxation, so it issued extremely destructive notes and issued a total of 1.5 billion, which caused catastrophic inflation. During the period, the North raised funds with national debt, prices rose by 80%, and the South increased by 90 times! It is strange that the South does not lose.
This is the difference between national debt and paper money. Treasury bonds are the purchasing power of overdrafts in the future, and paper money is the current purchasing power of overdrafts. In terms of operational space, treasury bonds are superior to paper currency. The key is to either repair the future purchasing power with economic growth or digest the national debts with fiscal surplus. ".
After the war, the United States adopted a two-pronged approach. On the one hand, it accelerated economic development with the second industrial revolution. On the other hand, it implemented fiscal austerity and gradually digested national debt with fiscal surplus.
By the end of the 19th century, various industrial indicators had developed rapidly, and GDP had doubled to 20 billion, and replaced Britain as the largest country in steel production. The scale of national debt also shrunk year by year. The United States paid off its national debt during the civil war, and the balance of national debt was controlled at 1.9 billion Within the US dollar, which accounted for about 10% of GDP at that time, was in a safe state.
Even in times of peace, the United States has no intention of eliminating debts, just controlling scale. This idea continues to this day. Treasury bonds seem to have a maturity period, but they are virtually indefinite.
4. Use the national debt to fight the world war, and the national debt to prosper
The First World War broke out in 1914, and the United States entered the war in 1917. Military expenditure naturally depends on national debt. From 1917 to 1919, the United States issued five rounds before and after, raising a total of 21.5 billion US dollars. The national debt balance increased by 8.4 times to 25 billion, accounting for 35% of GDP, exceeding the Civil War.
The World War I cost 32.8 billion US dollars, 2/3 of the national debt was solved, and the remaining 1/3 was solved by raising taxes. Fiscal revenue increased from US $ 800 million in 1916 to US $ 4.2 billion in 1918 and US $ 4.6 billion in 1919.
National debt is still the sharpest financial weapon. The wool comes from the sheep, and the national debt can only be repaid by the future taxes of American citizens. As the main purchasers of national debt, those bankers and capitalists become American creditors and become winners.
Huge national debt means huge risks. The United States once again uses economic development and fiscal surplus to reduce risks.
In the 1920s, Western Europe was in ruins, and the United States had a unique scenery. It was called the “Coolidge prosperity” and the “roaring era”. Economic prosperity has brought about fiscal surpluses, and U.S. debt has declined year by year. In 1929, the national debt balance was 17 billion yuan, accounting for 20% of GDP. This is the last time in US history to reduce the scale of national debt.
A violent deflation crisis broke out in 1929. Roosevelt adopted Keynesian ideas, and the government actively intervened in the economy, vigorously promoted public projects, and stimulated economic growth.
Where does the money for major government affairs come from? Relying on national debt alone, the balance of national debt reached 50 billion US dollars in 1941, three times that of 1929, and its share of GDP rapidly rose to 40%, surpassing World War I.
Before the United States had time to digest its debts, it encountered the "Pearl Harbor Incident." From 1942-1945, the US military expenditure totaled US $ 248.2 billion, and the balance of US Treasury bonds increased by 210 billion. To put it bluntly, World War II was completely defeated by national debt.
In 1945, the national debt balance reached 260 billion yuan, accounting for 122% of GDP, exceeding the total GDP for the first time in history. The risk exposure of national debt is undoubted.
However, during the two world wars, the United States became richer and richer, ascended the hegemony of capitalism, and seized 3/4 of the world's gold reserves. Based on this, the Bretton Woods system with the US dollar as the world currency was established in 1944.
At the beginning of the article, John Gordon said that instead of "national debt saved the world," it is better to say "national debt has made the United States." The Chinese like to say that the United States made war fortunes. This is a fact. The United States stepped on top of the corpses of Europe, and the direct tool it relied on was national debt.
The United States deeply appreciates the sweetness of national debt, and future national debt is no longer just a fiscal tool of the federal government, but also a strategic tool of the United States.
5. More and more evil, global pay
1. The fiscal surplus is no longer used for debt repayment
The Bretton Woods system profoundly changed the operating system of US debt. Since the US dollar is the world's currency, I can use the US dollar to reap the wealth of the people of my country, and naturally it can also be used to reap the wealth of foreign countries. Since then, the United States never thought of using its own fiscal surplus to digest its national debt, but instead paid the global wealth in dollars.
So that the United States often occurs this kind of sabotage: debts are getting bigger and bigger, but they continue to implement tax cuts. Behind this unconventional normalization is that American politicians use tax cuts to maintain public support for their rule, and then push the debt to other countries.
From 1945 to 1960, the United States produced 1/3 of the world ’s industrial production, dominated world trade, and often experienced fiscal surpluses, but the balance of national debt remained stable. The United States uses fiscal revenues for its own welfare instead of repaying its national debt, which makes it impossible to reduce the scale of national debt.
With the development of the global economy, the currency continues to depreciate. The difference between the purchase price of 1 USD in 1945 and 1 USD in 1960 is obvious. The balance of the national debt looks constant, but it is constantly diluting. From 1945-1960, the US GDP grew 1.5 times, from 200 billion to 500 billion. National debt / GDP fell to about 50%.
To put it bluntly, it relies on the US dollar to suck blood from the world, and the debt is diluted to assume the world. Since then, the national debt has completely become the world's largest financial scam, the fiscal surplus has become a national welfare, the world is serving Americans, and the United States has begun an alternative colonial history.
In 1961, in order to strengthen its hegemony, the United States intervened in the Vietnam War. The United States entered the war for 15 years and killed 60,000 officers and soldiers. It directly invested up to 150 billion US dollars. Counting indirect investment through Japan and South Korea, this war cost at least 200 billion. From 1960 to 1975, the national debt balance increased at an average annual rate of 15 billion US dollars, which just offset the cost of the Vietnam War.
From the data point of view, like the previous wars, the Vietnam War was also defeated by national debt.
At this time we will find a "strange" phenomenon, one side is sinking into the quagmire of Vietnam War, and one side is the rapid advancement of social welfare. President Kennedy proposed a "welfare state" and signed an unprecedented tax reduction method; President Johnson implemented a "great society" plan against poverty. In the 1960s, the U.S. economy continued to grow for 106 months and was called a "hundred-month prosperity," but even after excluding the war debts of the Vietnam War, the balance of U.S. debts did not decline.
All fiscal revenues are used to build a "welfare society".
From 1960 to 1975, although the Vietnam War failed, the national debt doubled to 500 billion, but the GDP doubled to 1.5 trillion. As a result, the national debt / GDP ratio fell further to 33%, a new low after the war. Therefore, the Vietnam War did not shake the US financial strength.
A major event occurred during this period, the United States announced its departure from the gold standard, and the issuance of dollars was no longer restricted by gold reserves. The United States can obtain invisible wealth from the world through arbitrary devaluation and appreciation. The depreciation of the US dollar and the accumulation of huge debts have been greatly diluted. In fact, it is a disguise. In fact, the appreciation of the US dollar, the return of wealth from the world to the United States, the strengthening of the US economy, opened another wave of national debt issuance.
Most of the US dollar is circulated abroad, most of the national debt investors are domestic, and US dollars + US debt have become the only way for the US to gather wealth.
2. With neighbors as ravines, use the Latin American sacrifice flag
The oil inflation crisis broke out in 1973 and the economy fell into recession. Taking into account the impact of inflation, the real US GDP grew negatively for two consecutive years from 1974 to 1975.
To resolve the crisis, Carter and Reagan both implemented tax cuts and increased spending policies, but to varying degrees.
But the results were very different. Carter's inflation rate reached the highest post-war level of 19.5%, and GDP fell into negative growth again in 1980. Reagan saved the American economy, "Reagan Economics" became popular, and Li and himself became great presidents in American hearts.
This opposite outcome must not simply be reduced to the so-called "supply economics" of tax cuts and increased spending. The key difference between the two is that Reagan cut Latin American wool.
The 1960s and 1970s were the "golden age" of Latin America and the most active emerging economy in the global economy. The United States targets the harvest target in Latin America. Beginning in 1979, the United States began to tighten its currency, using high interest rates and the appreciation of the US dollar as a means of anti-inflation. The United States continued to raise interest rates, yanking interest rates to 20%.
The sovereign debt crisis in Latin America broke out immediately, debt restructuring, the dollar backflow.
The U.S. economy began to recover strongly in 1983, after which the inflation rate fell to a low level of 5%.
Latin America has since collapsed and became a victim of the US economy.
Directional blasting, precision strike, this wave of wool harvested thief 6.
While abolishing Latin America, the United States also wanted to bring down the Soviet Union. Reagan's toughness against the Soviet Union brought the scale of national debt to a new height, from 500 billion in 1976, 1 trillion in 1981, and 2.6 trillion in 1988, and the proportion of GDP returned to 50 years ago. %.
Facing Reagan ’s national debt spree, Bush ’s campaign slogans were “no new taxes” and “debt reduction”. You see, the means to reduce debt is to cut expenditures, not to increase taxes.
But it is ridiculous that Bush took the opposite action as soon as he took office: tax increase + expenditure expansion.
When he resigned in 1992, the balance of national debt reached 4 trillion, an increase of 50%, while GDP increased by only 25%, and the national debt / GDP was 63%, which was higher than the Reagan period. In contrast to this, from 1981 to 1992, the ratio of fiscal revenue to GDP dropped from 20.2% to 18.6%.
What kind of tax increase is this? Lizi is still the old way of "tax reduction + debt issuance".
Where did Bush's money go? It is certainly not the Gulf War. This war lasted only 42 days. The opponent was a small country in Iraq, which cost more than 60 billion yuan. There is only one place: the drastic changes in Eastern Europe and the collapse of the Soviet Union.
In this economic tug-of-war, the US laughed to the end, at the cost of an increase of 3 trillion national debt in just ten years. This data is half of the US GDP in 1991! After the two world wars, the United States once again tasted the great benefits of national debt, and never wanted to stop.
Such a huge debt, if it is the United States in the 19th century, will surely use fiscal surplus to reduce the scale of national debt. But at this time, the United States didn't think about it at all.
Six, small brakes
Clinton, known as the "Master of ZTE", could not wait to resolve the debt problem as soon as he came to power. He implemented fiscal and taxation policies with the reduction of fiscal deficits as the core, and led the US economy to prosperity with free trade and globalization, both of which have been pursued.
Clinton brought the most noticeable economic prosperity to the United States, the stock market was booming, and the inflation rate was never higher than 3%. The United States continued to create a record of economic growth. In 2000, the US GDP reached 10 trillion, which is a landmark data.
From 1993 to 1997, the US fiscal deficit declined year by year, from 290.3 billion to 21.9 billion. It began to turn into a fiscal surplus in fiscal 1998. The surplus for the year was 69.3 billion US dollars, the first time in 30 years for the United States. When Clinton left office in 2000, Bush left a fiscal surplus of US $ 236.2 billion.
However, Sao operation came again. With the balance of the budget, in 1997, Clinton promptly proposed a tax cut method to return the fiscal surplus to the American people in the form of benefits, rather than to pay debts. Another fact is that the balance of national debt increased from 4 trillion to 5.2 trillion in 1992-1996.
Even with the fiscal surplus during the second term, the scale of national debt has increased by 500 billion, and the national debt / GDP is a high of 57%.
Therefore, Clinton just wanted to control the growth rate of national debt, and had no intention to reduce the scale of national debt.
Seven, slam on the accelerator, spend money one by one
As soon as Bush came to power, he launched the largest tax reduction plan in American history, with a quota of 1.3 trillion.
On the one hand, it is a huge debt, and on the other hand, it is busy cutting taxes. No one cares about the repayment of national debt. This is the task of future generations, and winning the current elections is the most important thing.
However, Bush Jr. was very unlucky and encountered a "911" terrorist attack, and counter-terrorism became a basic national policy.
The United States has waged wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. According to the report of the US Congress Research Institute, the final cost of the Iraq war is 814.6 billion US dollars, and the Afghan war consumes 685.6 billion US dollars, a total of 1.5 trillion. Include other hidden costs such as war injuries, compensation for dead soldiers, and pensions. Researchers at Harvard University estimate the total cost to be between 4 and 6 trillion dollars.
The cost of these two wars is at least US $ 4 trillion.
When Bush Jr. was in power for 8 years, when he resigned, the national debt balance exceeded the 10 trillion mark for the first time, and the national debt / GDP rose to 71%! An increase of 4.3 trillion yuan during his term of office basically covers the cost of war.
Although the cost of war was huge, Bush Jr. had no idea of tax increase, and his tax cut plan was completely accompanied by his presidency. Anyway, there is a national debt! On the one hand, the rapid increase of national debt, on the other hand, the fiscal revenue is not improving. Anyway, I never thought about it.
When it comes to spending money, Obama is the pinnacle, known as the "king of deficits." Like the old Bush ’s dishonesty, the campaign slogan was “reduce the deficit”, and the opposite was adopted as soon as he came to power.
The subprime mortgage crisis broke out in 2008, and through substantial QE, the US economy resumed growth in 2010, and the scale of national debt surged by 2 trillion yuan. The flooding not only saved the US economy (in fact, a large capitalist enterprise), but also diluted the previous 10 trillion debt. , Two birds with one stone.
As the U.S. economy has just recovered, these extra funds go to more profitable emerging countries, commonly known as "hot money". After earning enough, the United States will recover it in the form of interest rate hikes, and these countries will return what they have earned in the past few years. United States. This is why Trump hikes interest rates. I will talk about this in the next article.
Barack Obama was an ordinary, gentleman, and his humility concealed great ambition.
He opposed Bush ’s war in Iraq, but the Libyan War and ISIS did not make any effort. The missile defense program, the development of nuclear submarines, and the Mars program were also proposed. The military budget during the Obama period clearly surpassed that of George W. Bush.
He stood on the platform for civilians and introduced many "people-oriented" policies such as medical reform, housing, education, and unemployment assistance, trying to narrow the gap between the rich and the poor between the disadvantaged and the rich. feel. Obama has therefore become a very respectable president for Americans.
There is also an expansionary fiscal policy implemented to save the economic crisis.
All are generous money-consuming projects, but Obama maintains the original intention of tax cuts of previous presidents. In 2010, the "Tax Reduction Act" was passed, and the total amount of tax reduction was as high as 858 billion US dollars. In 2012, the "Taxpayer Reduction Act of the United States" was launched. I really don't forget my original intentions and keep in mind the mission.
While spending money while reducing taxes, its ambition can only rely on national debt. At an average annual rate of 1.1 trillion yuan, he brought the scale of US debt to a "city on top of 19 trillion", and the growth rate of national debt far exceeded the growth rate of GDP. He also lobbied China to buy more. After the "World War II", the US debt balance exceeded GDP again!
Knowing that I sinned me, it was only spring and autumn. This sentence is suitable for Obama.
Trump took over the "hot potato" left by Obama. He had no choice but to do his best to solve the problem of national debt.
Trump began a large-scale withdrawal of troops. A large number of American troops in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, and Turkey withdrew, requiring NATO, Japan, and South Korea and other garrison countries to increase their defense expenditures, thereby reducing US military expenditures.
Reducing expenditures should increase incomes, but the usual American operations are coming again: tax cuts. In 2017, Trump took the tax reform plan as soon as he took office, greatly reducing the tax rate, and cutting taxes by 1.4 trillion US dollars in the next ten years. This directly led to lower U.S. fiscal revenue in 2018 than in 2017, the first negative growth since the subprime mortgage crisis!
In terms of open source, the United States has no intention of starting from its own country, but from the global shearing of wool.
Like Reagan, Trump continued to raise interest rates as soon as he took office, raising the federal benchmark interest rate to 3% each time to attract a return of the dollar. As a result, the global financial market was turbulent, and China began to exercise strict foreign exchange control to reduce the return of the US dollar, but still failed to prevent the exchange rate from rising rapidly from 6 to 7; the collapse of Argentina and Turkey; the emerging countries such as Brazil, India, Indonesia, South Africa Had a huge impact; the EU was also dragged down.
With neighbors as the beggars, the US economy is growing well, with GDP growth increasing from 1.6% in 2016 to 2.4% in 2017, 2.9% in 2018, and falling to 2.3% in 2019. The overall economic performance is significantly better than during the Obama period.
Then continue to issue bonds. In the three years of Trump's administration, the average annual increase is 1.3 trillion, which is even more ruthless than that of Obama. For the first time in 2019, U.S. Treasury bonds exceeded 23 trillion, and the growth rate of national debt exceeded GDP growth.
Like previous presidents, Trump never thought about reducing the scale of national debt, but tried to find ways to maintain the credit of national debt through economic performance so that he could borrow more new debt.
summary
A brief summary of the history of U.S. debts: the beginning of debt wars, the generation of national debts, the success of national debts, and the rise of national debts. Treasury bonds are firmly tied to the fate of the United States and are integrated.
Under the normal operation of “tax reduction + debt issuance” in the United States, not only is debt repayment impossible long ago, but it is always paid for by global wealth.
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